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Delayed by 5 years, funding cut to the bone. Only Coast Guard will be moving to St. Elizabeth's anytime soon, as their building is nearing completion. 5 years minimum before the other DHS components move. If ever.
While the idea of consolidating seems good on paper, I don't see how these massive, secluded compounds are good urban planning. Surely the roads and facilities in the area were not designed to handle the rush hour traffic that will soon be there, and in terms of supporting the neighborhood, I doubt the folks working at this walled fortress will be strolling Anacostia on their lunch hours.
Back to the O.P.'s question. Hands down, I'd say to buy on the Southwest Waterfront. There are still some spectacular deals that surely won't last forever. Where else in DC can you buy a decent 1br apartment for less than $150k? The redevelopment is on it's way, but even just the way it is, it's a pretty good neighborhood to begin with. Metro stop, easy access to 395/295, short walk to the Smithsonian/mall, Safeway, CVS, Maine Ave. Fish Market, Arena Stage. Area is pretty quiet and safe for DC.
If you're buying an investment property, your choices at present will be rather limited in both neighborhoods due to a lack of condominiums on the market. Besides Velocity in SE, I can't think of any ground-up condo projects that are currently selling in either market. Buying and rehabbing an older unit probably isn't easily done from afar.
Potomac Place, a conversion in SW, has a few units left but they're all studios. Much of the multi-family inventory in SW is in cooperatives (Capitol Hill Tower in SE is also a co-op), and they generally don't like out-of-state investors. The exception is Carrollsburg, and the units I've seen there don't inspire a lot of confidence. (YMMV, of course.)
You'll want to search this forum and other sites (Urbanturf is particularly good for neighborhood-scale, as opposed to individual project-scale, coverage) for "Southwest" and "Navy Yard."
Federal Dept. of Homeland Security is currently building its headquarters now along St. Elizabeths. You can you see the massive efforts as you are driving along 295. I am a resident of Southeastern DC and live in a townhome community by Anacostia and the positive changes are evident. Bear in mind, as with any area, change is gradual.
When do you think the wharf will start construction?
Suppose to start this year with completion being in 2019. People who own around that area in hopes of making money need to have the patience of a saint.
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