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So where are these people going to live? How much space is there left to build more condos and apartments?
Look at every metro station in the district and look at where there are low density commercial (or vacant) properties within a half mile. Then look at the DC street car plan, and look at vacant or low density (I mean like shopping centers with surface parking lots) commercial within 1/4 mile of the street car lines.
So where are these people going to live? How much space is there left to build more condos and apartments?
There's a surprisingly large amount of space left in the District, even in desirable neighborhoods. Infill will become necessary as demand continues to increase. The major areas will be along arterial roads such as Georgia Avenue, 7th Street, Florida Avenue, and parcels surrounding Metro stations. Alone, the area around the north entrance to the Shaw Metro station has massive potential, which would also link the area to the eastern end of the U Street Corridor. There are a number of lots on 14th Street, while the Mount Vernon Triangle could hold hundreds, if not thousands more residents (there are I think five parcels left, at even only 200 units per building there's your 1,000-person target). And last but certainly not least, don't forget about the other two major BIDs: NoMa and Navy Yard. Both are projected to house at least 5,000 new residents each. This is only a fractional amount of the possible space for growth. Reservation 13, the area around the Anacostia Metro station (which will develop as demand pushes development further and further out), Congress Heights, and Near Northeast/H Street also have room for growth. Pretty astounding if you ask me.
I drilled down the numbers for residential growth potential going forward in select neighborhoods and the numbers are compelling.
NoMa will be the biggest story this decade, residential-wise.
According to my figures, Census Tract 106 in NoMa had a 2010 density of 8,237 residents per/sq mile. By 2020, this same census tract should add 7,200 units and would have a residential density of around 31,000 people per/sq mile. That's almost a 400% density increase
Census Tract 47.01, which represents half of the Mount Vernon Triangle neighborhood, had a 2010 density of around 32,000 people per/sq mile. By 2020, 1,500 units would have been added and the density number should increase to a bit over 50,000 people per sq/mile.
Capitol Riverfront/Navy Yard area is on target to triple in residential density by 2020 and is a close second to NoMa as for growth.
I do have a full spreadsheet with more neighborhoods on it.
I drilled down the numbers for residential growth potential going forward in select neighborhoods and the numbers are compelling.
NoMa will be the biggest story this decade, residential-wise.
According to my figures, Census Tract 106 in NoMa had a 2010 density of 8,237 residents per/sq mile. By 2020, this same census tract should add 7,200 units and would have a residential density of around 31,000 people per/sq mile. That's almost a 400% density increase
Census Tract 47.01, which represents half of the Mount Vernon Triangle neighborhood, had a 2010 density of around 32,000 people per/sq mile. By 2020, 1,500 units would have been added and the density number should increase to a bit over 50,000 people per sq/mile.
Capitol Riverfront/Navy Yard area is on target to triple in residential density by 2020 and is a close second to NoMa as for growth.
I do have a full spreadsheet with more neighborhoods on it.
From the official sites:
NoMa currently has 1,223 residential units and 2,229 under construction. Planned are another 6,549 for a total of 10,001 at maximum build out. At 1.5 people per household (standard figure for these estimates), that's a maximum of 15,001 people in NoMa.
Navy Yard has 2,427 current residential units and 607 under construction. Planned are another 6,096 units for a total of 9,132. At 1.5 people per household, that's a maximum of 13,698 people in Navy Yard.
Let's look at that growth compared to now. DC's 2011 population estimate is 617,996. Using the 1.5 multiplier, under construction units will bring up to 4,254 new residents, or a 0.8% increase, which isn't much. However, at maximum build out, that's a 2.5% jump, which is significant considering this is only part of DC's overall growth. Now those numbers are the most possible, so I'd say around 70-80% of that is more likely, but it's still significant.
NoMa currently has 1,223 residential units and 2,229 under construction. Planned are another 6,549 for a total of 10,001 at maximum build out. At 1.5 people per household (standard figure for these estimates), that's a maximum of 15,001 people in NoMa.
Navy Yard has 2,427 current residential units and 607 under construction. Planned are another 6,096 units for a total of 9,132. At 1.5 people per household, that's a maximum of 13,698 people in Navy Yard.
Let's look at that growth compared to now. DC's 2011 population estimate is 617,996. Using the 1.5 multiplier, under construction units will bring up to 4,254 new residents, or a 0.8% increase, which isn't much. However, at maximum build out, that's a 2.5% jump, which is significant considering this is only part of DC's overall growth. Now those numbers are the most possible, so I'd say around 70-80% of that is more likely, but it's still significant.
My number relates to Census Tract 106. It includes most of NoMa (but not all of it) and surrounding environs (like H Street). There are other census tracts that are in NoMa but were not included in the above. My numbers also include units that were delivered in 2010 but were not included in census 2010 stats since the units were not occupied yet.
Most importantly, and as it relates to my analysis, the stats on the NoMa BID website don't include all the planned units for Census Tract 106. My analysis is by census tract.
Last edited by revitalizer; 04-25-2012 at 12:08 PM..
My number relates to Census Tract 106. It includes NoMa (but not all of it) and surrounding environs (like H Street). There are other census tracts that are in NoMa but were not included in the above. My numbers also include units that were delivered in 2010 but were not included in census 2010 stats since the units were not occupied yet.
Of course it'll vary, mainly because they're measuring within BID boundaries. My only concern with using density is that we're talking about raw growth; they don't need to be comparable. Normally I'd say otherwise.
+ To make all of DC's waterways swimmable and fishable
HAHHAHAHAA good luck with that. I hope it happens but I won't hold my breath.
Anyway this city already feels a bit crowded in places. Then again SF is even denser and I've been there a few times and never felt too crowded so I guess it'd work.
I drilled down the numbers for residential growth potential going forward in select neighborhoods and the numbers are compelling.
NoMa will be the biggest story this decade, residential-wise.
According to my figures, Census Tract 106 in NoMa had a 2010 density of 8,237 residents per/sq mile. By 2020, this same census tract should add 7,200 units and would have a residential density of around 31,000 people per/sq mile. That's almost a 400% density increase
Census Tract 47.01, which represents half of the Mount Vernon Triangle neighborhood, had a 2010 density of around 32,000 people per/sq mile. By 2020, 1,500 units would have been added and the density number should increase to a bit over 50,000 people per sq/mile.
Capitol Riverfront/Navy Yard area is on target to triple in residential density by 2020 and is a close second to NoMa as for growth.
I do have a full spreadsheet with more neighborhoods on it.
As part of DC's new sustainable vision plan, DC is laying the groundwork to become the most liveable, sustainable, and healthiest city in the US. The city plans to attract 250,000 net new residents by 2032.
If DC can't fix the school system and keep its tax base from continuing to bleed into the suburbs once children are factored into the household equation, then you might as well throw all the other planned developments in the article straight out the window.
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