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To put some more context around what I posted just above (direct link to PDF), the MWCOG (well, specifically its TPB) is the region's Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO). The USDOT requires that each metro area have an MPO to do long-range population, employment, and travel demand forecasts, and therefore to plan for what transportation infrastructure will be needed in order to handle the projected growth. These are the forecasts that have been used by WMATA, DDOT, and others to plan for projects like new subways, bus lanes, and streetcar lines.
Of course, it's up to the local governments to actually fund such improvements, but if you note my post you'll see that employment in DC is also projected to grow. Their charts forecast that almost none of the new jobs will be directly for the federal government or military:
For the lower graph, "Central" is "the diamond," i.e., DC/Arlington/Alexandria. "Inner suburbs" add the counties (and associated independent cities) that are partly inside the Beltway, i.e., Prince George's, Montgomery, and Fairfax.
Dense urban sites can accommodate a lot of growth on small parcels. Just NoMa in DC, which is about half built, will eventually house almost as much development as the entire Rosslyn-Ballston corridor has today, and 50% more than is proposed at Gaithersburg's Science City.
Anyhow, point is, the people whose job it is to plan for 2030-2040 are well aware that the city, and the entire region, will be growing substantially. Just read that the Washington-Baltimore region should pass metro Chicago in population by 2020 or 2030 -- it's about time that the city participated in this growth.
lol. I'm sorry but I have one question to ask: That huge chunk of Professional and Business services, I assume that includes contractors, consultants, and etc. Right? They do count as professional and business services correct?
actually DC is probably in a better position to provide alternatives to metro rail than the suburbs are - much of central DC is close enough to walk or bike to major employment centers, and the new street cars will add transit capacity. The suburbs are probably more dependent on metro, at least for folks coummiting into DC.
As for the ohter jurisdictions, as Payton has shown, they are projected to grow anyway. Faster population growth in DC won't accelerate that - in fact it might even slow it down a bit - certainly DC's growth is more achievable if the inner suburbs and nonDC core jurisdictions fail to take advantage of densification possibilities, and the backlash in Alex, the problems faced by Columbia Pike Light rail, etc indicate that might happen. How the suburbs deal with traffic will depend on many things - what the pattern of their growth is, and how much political will there is.
Well looking at paytonc's pie chart it looks like 74% of the employment growth is planned for the DC suburbs. I think that shows huge looming problem with transportation. There are going to tons of people traveling from county to county. I don't think there has been a problem for getting to on point in dc to another. It is just a clusterf*ck when it gets to traveling outside the city which of course will the overwhelming amount of people are going to be coming or going to. When I used to take the metro, White Flint or Shady grove it sucked. It was a freaking meat packing center by the time the train got to medical center. Now, you can as MDAllStar, they are building up Gaithersburg like nobody's business. Lightrails and dedicated bus lines or whatever. Guess where they are dumping people: Shady grove. I don't see Montgomery County doing anything to alleviate the problem. I just see them quietly sitting in the corner stemming. I had to travel all the way to courthouse. So on my way back home, I saw another meat train headed in the opposite direction towards Vienna. And now they are building the Silver line to share half of its track with the Orange and Blue line? Yeah, that will alleviate car traffic in the area...oh wait.
Now, I am not saying that the population won't increase anything can happen. I am just saying that all of this "high density development" is going to bite the ass of the DMV when it comes to transportation because I still do not think that our system is set up to handle the amount of people coming to this area in the next 10-20 years. Hell, 5 years. Every time someone talks about population increase in this area, I keep on having images of metro center at 5:30pm on a hot day.
lol. I'm sorry but I have one question to ask: That huge chunk of Professional and Business services, I assume that includes contractors, consultants, and etc. Right? They do count as professional and business services correct?
According to the Office of Labor Market Research and Information in DC's Department of Employment Services (2011):
Employment in the professional and business services sector is projected to reach about 204,000 jobs by 2018. It should grow about 22 percent from 2008 to 2018.
Much of the growth in this sector will be in computer systems design and related services.
The major categories within this sector include:
+ Legal (Represents 21.5 percent of current total in sector)
+ Accounting
+ Architectural, Engineering (Represents 5% of current total in sector)
+ Computer Systems Design (biggest projected growth) (Represents 11% of current total in sector)
+ Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting (not the biggest or highest growth part of the sector. Represents 9.5% of current total in sector)
+ Advertising
+ Scientific Research and Development (Represents about 8% of current total in sector)
+ Administrative and Support (includes security, office admin, services to buildings)
Last edited by revitalizer; 05-09-2012 at 09:29 AM..
Well looking at paytonc's pie chart it looks like 74% of the employment growth is planned for the DC suburbs. I think that shows huge looming problem with transportation. There are going to tons of people traveling from county to county..
the issue of suburb to suburb commute is a big one, but not really germane to this thread.
Quote:
I don't think there has been a problem for getting to on point in dc to another. It is just a clusterf*ck when it gets to traveling outside the city which of course will the overwhelming amount of people are going to be coming or going to.
Do you mean commuting from DC to the suburbs? I think most DC residents will work in DC. The total number of jobs in DC is higher than the the total number of RESIDENTS in DC - a figure that includes children, retirees, and stay at home parents, as well as reverse commuters.
Quote:
When I used to take the metro, White Flint or Shady grove it sucked. It was a freaking meat packing center by the time the train got to medical center. Now, you can as MDAllStar, they are building up Gaithersburg like nobody's business. Lightrails and dedicated bus lines or whatever. Guess where they are dumping people: Shady grove. I don't see Montgomery County doing anything to alleviate the problem. I just see them quietly sitting in the corner stemming. I had to travel all the way to courthouse. So on my way back home, I saw another meat train headed in the opposite direction towards Vienna. .
My own observations show the Yellow line from DC to Pentagon in the AM is rarely packed. Im nto sure what happened on the lines you experienced.
Quote:
And now they are building the Silver line to share half of its track with the Orange and Blue line? Yeah, that will alleviate car traffic in the area...oh wait..
Since the Silver line trains will be useable by folks getting on or off at all the stations from EFC to Rosslyn, that actually should relieve congestion on the Orange line.
The bigger thing impacting reverse commuters from DC to Tysons though, will be the construction of large numbers of apts in a new more walkable Tysons, which may reduce the incentive for folks to live in DC (and North arlington) and reverse commute to Tysons. Of course that could reduce the proposed population growth for DC.
Like I said, it always looks good on paper. I've never seen a place attract nice new buildings and wealthier residents / businesses and have prices subsequently drop, no matter how much housing supply there is. I think the improvement in the neighborhood almost always offsets the increase in supply.
I agree. If anything, the prices keep rising as inventory increases. In theory, an increase in supply should lead to a concomitant decrease in the price level, but theory does not always jibe with reality.
I'm also skeptical of political projections. How many experts looked at decline rates a couple decades ago, projected those out, and wrote cities off forever? These things are somewhat cyclical. Maybe what will drive people away from DC in the future will be housing costs rather than crime and disinvestment, but the result could be similar in terms of losing a tax base. I think there's definitely a lot more growth coming but I'm just not sure I'd bet on 250,000 more within the city itself.
I agree with this too. I think 670-680K is more realistic.
But then again, people said housing prices would drop too, and we see how wrong the critics were about that.
I agree. If anything, the prices keep rising as inventory increases. In theory, an increase in supply should lead to a concomitant decrease in the price level, but theory does not always jibe with reality.
The crash of 2008 resulted in lots of canceled projects - but employment in DC turned up relatively quickly. Due to the lag in construction, the increase in supply in 2009-2010 was well below absorption. As the projects begun AFTER the crash have come on line, the rate of increase has slowed, and some forecast a modest decrease soon. However if the rate of demand increase continues as it has, then the that decrease will be quite modest, and increases will likely resume. If, as some expect, the demand decreases, that decrease could continue for some time, at least till the developers reduce the number of new projects on stream.
But then again, people said housing prices would drop too, and we see how wrong the critics were about that.
I'm pretty sure there are still parts of DC where houses sell for less than they did in 2006. Of course there are many parts of the suburbs where that is the case.
If, as some expect, the demand decreases, that decrease could continue for some time, at least till the developers reduce the number of new projects on stream.
I don't think we'll necessarily see a decrease in demand. We may, however, see a decrease in the quantity demanded as the price level continues to rise. So instead of seeing a leftward shift in the demand curve, we'll see movement along the demand curve to the left, indicating that apartments have simply become too expensive for many people to rent/buy.
Given the strength of the area's economy, I don't see aggregate demand falling off anytime soon.
I don't think we'll necessarily see a decrease in demand. We may, however, see a decrease in the quantity demanded as the price level continues to rise. So instead of seeing a leftward shift in the demand curve, we'll see movement along the demand curve to the left, indicating that apartments have simply become too expensive for people to rent/buy.
Given the strength of the area's economy, I don't see actual demand falling off anytime soon.
Exactly. The increase in new construction will probably stabilise or at least slow down rent growth (we're seeing this already). The only way to keep rents from spiking is to continue to build in order to absorb growth.
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