D.C. Homicide Rate on Pace to Finish at an Unprecedented Low in 2012!!!

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by btsilver

Actually this year it's dropped in PG as well.

this is interesting


"Roman said fears of a crime spike in Prince George's were exaggerated.
Location drives violent crime, he said, and violence that thrived in the dense poverty of parts of the District is muted in the sparser suburbs.
"To a large extent, the violence that occurred in D.C. was more about the places people lived than the people who lived there," Roman said. "If you can take people out of that place and disperse them, then a lot of the crime disappears.""

So taking the most violent folks out of a high density area like DC may lower crime in the dense jurisdiction, without increasing it in the place they move to. The transformation can be a win win for the region.

[Frank Merton]

I saw an analysis a year or so ago that attributed the drop in American crime rates to legal abortion. The crime rates began to drop just as those born once abortions became legal began to reach their teen-age years. (Most crime is committed by teen-age and twenties males). It seemed that criminals tended to be unwanted children, who now are born at a much lower rate.

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by Frank Merton

I saw an analysis a year or so ago that attributed the drop in American crime rates to legal abortion. The crime rates began to drop just as those born once abortions became legal began to reach their teen-age years. (Most crime is committed by teen-age and twenties males). It seemed that criminals tended to be unwanted children, who now are born at a much lower rate.

People turning 18 now were born in 1994, so that can't really explain whats happening now.

[Frank Merton]

It's a twenty plus year time span we are talking about. The drop would appear steadily over such a period -- the crimes are not just by 18 year-olds.

I suspect there are other contributing factors, one being that the drop in crime has had the effect of changing the criminal culture (crime reinforces itself), and of freeing up police resources.

[brooklynborndad]

In DC we are talking a drop of over 50% in four years.

Thats not just a better cohort of 38 year old criminals due to Roe v Wade - and its not just a slow improvement in the culture.