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I have created a Google map of what I predict the contiguous area will look like for DC's highest density residential area in 2020.
This map is based on my extensive number crunching, by census tract, of 2010 census data + my own predictions taking into account likely housing unit changes, vacancy rates, household size, and population by census tract in 2020.
I predict a contiguous area, measuring 3.7 square miles or 2,358 acres) with 30,000+ people per square mile will exist in central DC by the 2020 Census. This polygon is shaded gray on the attached map.
Additionally, I predict a contiguous area with 40,000+ people per square mile will exist (shaded in blue on the attached map).
Note: I created the 30,000 and 40,000 people per square mile polygons in Google Maps and then used an area calculator tool to measure the polygons in acres and square miles.
DC's densest census tract(#50.02) in 2020 should be 70,000+ people per square mile, which is located in Logan Circle. This census tract is directly adjacent to DC's commercial business district.
Have a nice weekend everyone!
Last edited by revitalizer; 01-18-2014 at 10:33 PM..
very interesting map, but why do you think that Logan circle will be more dense that Dupont when Dupont is a much more sought after neighborhood?
Interesting question. Thanks!
Census tract 50.02, located in Logan Circle, is already DC's densest census tract at 66,752 people per square mile. This census tract has the ability to absorb even more population growth with the addition of new housing units and a decreased vacancy rate. Assuming normal household size for this area, addition of new housing units, and a decreased vacancy rate, this census tract could reach about 72,000 people per square mile by 2020.
Dupont Circle's densest census tract (#53.01), by comparison, currently is 45,660 people per square mile. I forecast this census tract's density will increase to about 51,000 people per square mile by 2020, assuming the addition of new housing units and a steady vacancy rate.
Even if the Dupont Circle neighborhood were indeed a "much" more sought after neighborhood (I don't think so), it's growth potential is limited due to limited vacant and underutilized land, historic preservation laws guiding current housing stock supply, etc.
My analysis is based on census tract, not necessarily neighborhood. Also at this point in time, I would not categorize Dupont Circle as a "much" more sought after neighborhood than Logan Circle. A case could be made that the neighborhoods are equally sought after or that Dupont Circle is a slightly more sought after neighborhood. Either way, I believe the desirability of Dupont Circle is stable and the desirability of Logan Circle is increasing.
Even in 1950 when DC's population was higher, Logan Circle contained one of DC's five densest census tracts, those over 60,000 people per square mile. Of DC's five densest census tracts in 1950 that were over 60,000 ppl per/sq mi, two were in Columbia Heights, one was in Dupont Circle, one along U Street, and the other was in Logan Circle.
And right now, Logan Circle is having an explosion of retail, restaurants, bars, and new residential units - i.e. more so than Dupont Circle.
Last edited by revitalizer; 01-19-2014 at 11:32 AM..
Census tract 50.02, located in Logan Circle, is already DC's densest census tract at 66,752 people per square mile. This census tract has the ability to absorb even more population growth with the addition of new housing units and a decreased vacancy rate. Assuming normal household size for this area, addition of new housing units, and a decreased vacancy rate, this census tract could reach about 72,000 people per square mile by 2020.
Dupont Circle's densest census tract (#53.01), by comparison, currently is 45,660 people per square mile. I forecast this census tract's density will increase to about 51,000 people per square mile by 2020, assuming the addition of new housing units and a steady vacancy rate.
Even if the Dupont Circle neighborhood were indeed a "much" more sought after neighborhood (I don't think so), it's growth potential is limited due to limited vacant and underutilized land, historic preservation laws guiding current housing stock supply, etc.
My analysis is based on census tract, not necessarily neighborhood. Also at this point in time, I would not categorize Dupont Circle as a "much" more sought after neighborhood than Logan Circle. A case could be made that the neighborhoods are equally sought after or that Dupont Circle is a slightly more sought after neighborhood. Either way, I believe the desirability of Dupont Circle is stable and the desirability of Logan Circle is increasing.
Even in 1950 when DC's population was higher, Logan Circle contained one of DC's five densest census tracts, those over 60,000 people per square mile. Of DC's five densest census tracts in 1950 that were over 60,000 ppl per/sq mi, two were in Columbia Heights, one was in Dupont Circle, one along U Street, and the other was in Logan Circle.
And right now, Logan Circle is having an explosion of retail, restaurants, bars, and new residential units - i.e. more so than Dupont Circle.
You forgot NOMA. By 2020, NOMA will have added 4,886 Units inside North Capitol St. and 2nd Street. It will actually be the densest census tract in D.C. over Logan Circle even once Burnham Place over Union Station air rights is built adding an additional 2,500 housing units inside North Capitol St. and 2nd Street bringing the total of additional housing units to 7,386 total units. NOMA has the potential to reach densities over 80,000 people per square mile.
Last edited by MDAllstar; 01-20-2014 at 09:27 AM..
You forgot NOMA. By 2020, NOMA will have added 4,886 Units inside North Capitol St. and 2nd Street. It will actually be the densest census tract in D.C. over Logan Circle even once Burnham Place over Union Station air rights is built adding an additional 2,500 housing units inside North Capitol St. and 2nd Street bringing the total of additional housing units to 7,386 total units. NOMA has the potential to reach densities over 80,000 people per square mile.
I'm glad you brought this up.
I actually didn't forget NoMa. Even with all the building, NoMa will reach about 23,000 people per square mile by 2020 in the existing census tract that encompasses it. That's a decent density for a mixed-use (commercial, residential, hotel) neighborhood. At full build-out with 7,400 net new units, I project the census tract covering NoMa will be about 31,000 people per square mile (Census Tract 106).
At 2010, the main census tract representing NoMa was only 8,237 people per square mile with a population of 3,933 people, so a jump to about 23,000 people per square mile at 2020 with a population increase to 11,000 people would be impressive for such a huge census tract covering an area of 0.4775 square miles. By comparison, the densest census tract (#50.02) covers an area of 0.0902 square miles and with 6,021 people in it as of 2010, so NoMa's census tract would have to add lots and lots more residential to even begin to catch up. In it's current form, Census Tract 106 would have to add 20,000 net new housing units since 2010 to match DC's most dense tract.
For census tract 106, a population of 11,000 divided by its area in square miles at 0.4775 yields a population density of 23,000. Note: the 2010 occupancy rate in Census Tract 106 was 86.7%. The occupancy rate will need to tighten considerably to achieve my above projection in 2020. As an example, right now a little birdie told me that a prominent new building on or about NoMa's main intersection is about 87%.
About 2,200 units have been completed in census tract 106 since 2010, and I project another 2,650 units to be built by 2020. That is a net add of 4,850 (mirroring your number of units added as well).
The only way for a much higher population density for NoMa is for Census Tract 106 to be split. If this census tract is split in 2020, then we have the potential for a much higher population density. And, a lot depends on how the census tract is split as well. I don't see Burnham Place adding the residential before the 2020 census.
I can show my math if you want to compare notes. Now, the census tract (#47.01) immediately to the west of NoMa and North Capitol St NW encompassing Mount Vernon Triangle does have the potential to be the most dense census tract in DC at some point, but I don't think that it would reach that potential for another 20 years or so. At 2020, I project Census Tract 47.01 could have 52,000 people per square mile but still far below 2020's top census tract in Logan Circle(#50.02) at about 72,000 people per square mile.
I've developed a database of nearly all central DC census tracts with all the attributes necessary to tabulate the projections I've been posting on here for the last 2 years (i.e. 2010 population, total area in square miles for each census tract, 2010 housing units, vacancy rate, household size, and my projections for 2020 population based on net new housing units, vacancy rate changes, and household size.
Last edited by revitalizer; 01-20-2014 at 12:08 PM..
I actually didn't forget NoMa. Even with all the building, NoMa will reach about 23,000 people per square mile by 2020 in the existing census tract that encompasses it. That's a decent density for a mixed-use (commercial, residential, hotel) neighborhood. At full build-out with 7,400 net new units, I project the census tract covering NoMa will be about 31,000 people per square mile (Census Tract 106).
At 2010, the main census tract representing NoMa was only 8,237 people per square mile with a population of 3,933 people, so a jump to about 23,000 people per square mile at 2020 with a population increase to 11,000 people would be impressive for such a huge census tract covering an area of 0.4775 square miles. By comparison, the densest census tract (#50.02) covers an area of 0.0902 square miles and with 6,021 people in it as of 2010, so NoMa's census tract would have to add lots and lots more residential to even begin to catch up. In it's current form, Census Tract 106 would have to add 20,000 net new housing units since 2010 to match DC's most dense tract.
For census tract 106, a population of 11,000 divided by its area in square miles at 0.4775 yields a population density of 23,000. Note: the 2010 occupancy rate in Census Tract 106 was 86.7%. The occupancy rate will need to tighten considerably to achieve my above projection in 2020. As an example, right now a little birdie told me that a prominent new building on or about NoMa's main intersection is about 87%.
About 2,200 units have been completed in census tract 106 since 2010, and I project another 2,650 units to be built by 2020. That is a net add of 4,850 (mirroring your number of units added as well).
The only way for a much higher population density for NoMa is for Census Tract 106 to be split. If this census tract is split in 2020, then we have the potential for a much higher population density. And, a lot depends on how the census tract is split as well. I don't see Burnham Place adding the residential before the 2020 census.
I can show my math if you want to compare notes. Now, the census tract (#47.01) immediately to the west of NoMa and North Capitol St NW encompassing Mount Vernon Triangle does have the potential to be the most dense census tract in DC at some point, but I don't think that it would reach that potential for another 20 years or so. At 2020, I project Census Tract 47.01 could have 52,000 people per square mile but still far below 2020's top census tract in Logan Circle(#50.02) at about 72,000 people per square mile.
I've developed a database of nearly all central DC census tracts with all the attributes necessary to tabulate the projections I've been posting on here for the last 2 years (i.e. 2010 population, total area in square miles for each census tract, 2010 housing units, vacancy rate, household size, and my projections for 2020 population based on net new housing units, vacancy rate changes, and household size.
The new census tract will not encompass the Atlas District. What you haven't realized is the census tract will shrink with all those new units. Look at Logan Circle for instance. How dense would that tract be if it added a few streets to the south where there are only office buildings? It would free fall in density. The census boundaries change. Also, your math on people per unit is pretty far off. Archstone First and M has way over 1,000 people living there with only 469 units.
Lastly, if you use the same census tract as 2010 for NOMA, there are way more units because you have to add in all the new atlas district units in additional to the NOMA units, but that is a moot point because they will be broken up. NOMA will have added close to 13,000 residents by 2020, and no census tract has that many people in one census tract.
The new census tract will not encompass the Atlas District. What you haven't realized is the census tract will shrink with all those new units. Look at Logan Circle for instance. How dense would that tract be if it added a few streets to the south where there are only office buildings? It would free fall in density. The census boundaries change. Also, your math on people per unit is pretty far off. Archstone First and M has way over 1,000 people living there with only 469 units.
Lastly, if you use the same census tract as 2010 for NOMA, there are way more units because you have to add in all the new atlas district units in additional to the NOMA units.
I actually took all that into account. Yes, the Atlas District units. The average household size for apartments I'm using is 1.55 and with a pretty aggressive 95% unit occupancy rate which would be a considerable uptick from the 86.7% occupancy rate as of 2010 in this census tract. And, I'll say it again. Burnham Place and its 1,300 residential units are likely to not be done by 2020.
I created two scenarios (see attached maps).
Scenario 1.
Census Tract 106 is split in two, with the dividing line on the west side of the railroad tracks. The calculation is focused on the NoMa part of the split census tract.
Area in square miles - 0.1851
Population in 2020 - 5,448
3,700 units delivered by 2020
29,400 people per square mile in 2020
Scenario 2 (likely for 2020 Census).
Census Tract 106 is split in two, with the dividing line on the east side of the railroad tracks. The calculation is focused on the NoMa part of the split census tract.
Area in square miles - 0.2675
Population in 2020 - 5,448
3,700 units delivered by 2020
20,300 people per square mile in 2020
Scenario 1 yields 33,100 people per square mile at full build-out with 4,170 units by 2030.
Scenario 2 yields 30,100 people per square mile at full build-out with 5,470 units by 2030.
The dense Logan Circle census tract with 67,000 people per square as of 2010 is nearly all residential. The NoMa census tract has/will have large blocks of office space and hotel space which kills its potential resident population density. Just look at how much space the ATF building takes up in the census tract. And, look how much space the train tracks take up. And, the office portion of Constitution Square. And, JBG's office portion of their future development along New York Ave and N St. Look at the big gap the Fed Ex distribution center creates between Trilogy NoMa and the rest of NoMa. And, the Sirius XM building and 64 Florida Ave NE building will create a huge gap between 50 Florida Ave and the rest of NoMa. And, look south of K Street NE, nothing but office space.
Look west into Census Tract 47.01 and 47.02. Residential development will be more prominent there and hence will be more dense. And yes, I agree there is potential for more residential development in NoMa.
Last edited by revitalizer; 01-20-2014 at 08:34 PM..
And this isn't even counting projects that have not been announced.
The projects you just referenced are spread over 6 completely separate census tracts.
Washington Gateway and Trilogy NoMa are in Census Tract 87.02
Gateway Market Center and Angelika Film Center and Apartment projects are in Census Tract 88.03
50 Florida Ave is in Census Tract 87.01
Capitol Point is in Census Tract 83.01
The Trinidad residential project is in Census Tract 88.02
The rest are in Census Tract 106
The projects you just referenced are spread over 6 completely separate census tracts.
Washington Gateway and Trilogy NoMa are in Census Tract 87.02
Gateway Market Center and Angelika Film Center and Apartment projects are in Census Tract 88.03
50 Florida Ave is in Census Tract 87.01
Capitol Point is in Census Tract 83.01
The Trinidad residential project is in Census Tract 88.02
The rest are in Census Tract 106
Correction: Capitol Place at 2nd and H St NE is in Census Tract 83.01
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