2014 (5-Year) DC MSA Population Density by Neighborhood (Washington: 2015, apartments)

[revitalizer]

So, I've made a series of population density maps that approximate the boundaries of select neighborhoods in the DC MSA with 2014 (5-Year) ACS data from the Census Bureau.

Here are the details (and the ground rules):

- I drew the neighborhood boundaries to be between 0.3 square miles (smallest) and 0.64 square miles (largest). Most of the neighborhood land areas are really, really similar in size. I did this intentionally to be able to compare population and density between neighborhoods more accurately.

- I used a combination of Census Block Groups and Census Tracts for each neighborhood boundary.

- For the Silver Spring Census Designated Place (CDP), I restricted the neighborhood size to the area closest to the DC border in order to form a land area similar to the size of the other neighborhoods.

- For the Ballston/Virginia Square neighborhood, I followed, as closely as possible, the neighborhood border as found on Google Maps. Yes, I know this can be drawn differently (as all of the neighborhoods in this post can), but this is the one I chose in order to make the land area similar in size to the other neighborhoods. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Vi...9992bd72bc1734

- There is no data overlap in the Census Block Groups and Census Tracts between neighborhoods, meaning data from a Census Block Group or Census Tract will belong only to one neighborhood.

- Yes, NoMa and Navy Yard are growing by leaps and bounds, but for now, they are not as dense as the more established neighborhoods in this post (when compared to the other neighborhoods using similar size land areas). And no, the size of these neighborhoods, for the purpose of this study, do not match the boundaries of the NoMa and Capitol Riverfront BIDs. I project NoMa and Navy Yard to hit the population density accelerator between 2016 and 2020.

- I know I did not draw a neighborhood map in Alexandria, but I got tired. If you'd really like to see one for Alexandria, I can accommodate you.

- For this 2014 (5-Year) ACS data set, Columbia Heights has DC's most dense Census Tract (28.01). Census Tract (50.02) in Logan Circle was second most dense.

- Columbia Heights has the most uniform population density of all these neighborhoods.

Columbia Heights:


Logan Circle:


Foggy Bottom/West End:


Silver Spring:


Ballston/Virginia Square:


H Street/Atlas District:


Rosslyn:


NoMa:


Navy Yard:

[MDAllstar]

Originally Posted by revitalizer

So, I've made a series of population density maps that approximate the boundaries of select neighborhoods in the DC MSA with 2014 (5-Year) ACS data from the Census Bureau.

Here are the details (and the ground rules):

- I drew the neighborhood boundaries to be between 0.3 square miles (smallest) and 0.64 square miles (largest). Most of the neighborhood land areas are really, really similar in size. I did this intentionally to be able to compare population and density between neighborhoods more accurately.

- I used a combination of Census Block Groups and Census Tracts for each neighborhood boundary.

- For the Silver Spring Census Designated Place (CDP), I restricted the neighborhood size to the area closest to the DC border in order to form a land area similar to the size of the other neighborhoods.

- For the Ballston/Virginia Square neighborhood, I followed, as closely as possible, the neighborhood border as found on Google Maps. Yes, I know this can be drawn differently (as all of the neighborhoods in this post can), but this is the one I chose in order to make the land area similar in size to the other neighborhoods. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Vi...9992bd72bc1734

- There is no data overlap in the Census Block Groups and Census Tracts between neighborhoods, meaning data from a Census Block Group or Census Tract will belong only to one neighborhood.

- Yes, NoMa and Navy Yard are growing by leaps and bounds, but for now, they are not as dense as the more established neighborhoods in this post (when compared to the other neighborhoods using similar size land areas). And no, the size of these neighborhoods, for the purpose of this study, do not match the boundaries of the NoMa and Capitol Riverfront BIDs. I project NoMa and Navy Yard to hit the population density accelerator between 2016 and 2020.

- I know I did not draw a neighborhood map in Alexandria, but I got tired. If you'd really like to see one for Alexandria, I can accommodate you.

- For this 2014 (5-Year) ACS data set, Columbia Heights has DC's most dense Census Tract (28.01). Census Tract (50.02) in Logan Circle was second most dense.

- Columbia Heights has the most uniform population density of all these neighborhoods.

Columbia Heights:


Logan Circle:


Foggy Bottom/West End:


Silver Spring:


Ballston/Virginia Square:


H Street/Atlas District:


Rosslyn:


NoMa:


Navy Yard:

Thanks for doing this. Columbia Heights and Logan Circle are definitely the most dense D.C. neighborhoods at the moment. They are completely built-out for the most part.

The NOMA/Union Market/Northwest One/Mt. Vernon Triangle area will be the densest part of D.C. at full build-out. The residential development that is coming to these neighborhoods over the next 15 years is at a residential intensity D.C. has never seen. The Capital Riverfront/Buzzard Point/SW Waterfront/Waterfront Station area will be the second most dense part of D.C. at full build-out and is also being developed at a residential intensity D.C. has never seen.

The buildings are all 200-300 units and range between 9-14 stories. There are very few low-rise or row-house housing units in those area's. Those area's will approach densities seen in San Fran and NYC over the next 15 years.

[revitalizer]

Originally Posted by MDAllstar

Thanks for doing this.

You're welcome! It was fun to do.

Here are some stats regarding Year 2014 residents per acre for Columbia Heights, Logan Circle, and Rosslyn and then compared against future (at full build-out) residents per acre projections for the neighborhoods of NoMa and Navy Yard/Capitol Riverfront:

Year 2014 (5-Year) - Columbia Heights - 23,564 pop. - 0.47 sq. mi. (300.8 acres) - 78 residents per acre
Year 2014 (5-Year) - Logan Circle - 13,852 pop. - 0.3 sq. mi. (192 acres) - 72 residents per acre
Year 2014 (5-Year) - Rosslyn - 10,641 pop. - 0.53 sq. mi. (339.2 acres) - 31 residents per acre

NoMa projected at full build-out - 17,500 pop. - 0.37 sq. mi. (237 acres) - 74 residents per acre

NoMa is one of DC's fastest growing neighborhoods - Greater Greater Washington

Navy Yard/Capitol Riverfront projected at full build-out - 22,000 pop. - 0.78 sq. mi. (500 acres) - 44 residents per acre

Without the Navy Yard installation - 22,000 pop. - 0.72 sq. mi (459 acres) - 48 residents per acre

Note: I estimate Columbia Heights will reach 83 residents per acre in the coming years with a population of around 25,000 and Logan Circle will drift towards 74 residents per acre in the coming years with a population of 14,250.

[gomason]

I work in SW Waterfront and I'm puzzled how Navy Yard has lower density than Waterfront. True Navy Yard hasn't been completely built out, but I feel like there are way more big apartment buildings over there. Especially the tract right around the Metro station.


I'm slightly surprised Clarendon doesn't have higher density but I guess it makes sense since there is much more office and retail space than apartments/condos.


Good work revitalizer. I think these micro maps are more helpful.

[revitalizer]

Originally Posted by gomason

I work in SW Waterfront and I'm puzzled how Navy Yard has lower density than Waterfront. True Navy Yard hasn't been completely built out, but I feel like there are way more big apartment buildings over there. Especially the tract right around the Metro station.


I'm slightly surprised Clarendon doesn't have higher density but I guess it makes sense since there is much more office and retail space than apartments/condos.


Good work revitalizer. I think these micro maps are more helpful.

The Census Tract covering the Navy Yard has a huge land area (0.53 square miles). There are two Census Block Groups within that Census Tract. Block Group 1 (the area north of L St with a land area of only 0.12 sq. mi.) has a population density of 26,651 ppsm, while Block Group 2 (the area south of L St with a land area of 0.41 sq. mi.) has a population density of 2,785 ppsm (which is exceedingly low). I kept the whole Census Tract together in the map I posted as it represented the whole neighborhood in one unit.

With 10 apartment buildings under construction right now, we'll see this Census Tract gain population density fast as this residential product is delivered. 5,429 residential units are scheduled to be delivered in this Census Tract between now and 2018. The rise will be swift.

As for SW Waterfront, there is a high density Census Block Group (more dense than the one in Navy Yard) tucked into Census Tract 110 (this has the same problem though in that the other one Block Group is low density - but not as low as the one in Navy Yard).

[MDAllstar]

Originally Posted by revitalizer

You're welcome! It was fun to do.

Here are some stats regarding Year 2014 residents per acre for Columbia Heights, Logan Circle, and Rosslyn and then compared against future (at full build-out) residents per acre projections for the neighborhoods of NoMa and Navy Yard/Capitol Riverfront:

Year 2014 (5-Year) - Columbia Heights - 23,564 pop. - 0.47 sq. mi. (300.8 acres) - 78 residents per acre
Year 2014 (5-Year) - Logan Circle - 13,852 pop. - 0.3 sq. mi. (192 acres) - 72 residents per acre
Year 2014 (5-Year) - Rosslyn - 10,641 pop. - 0.53 sq. mi. (339.2 acres) - 31 residents per acre

NoMa projected at full build-out - 17,500 pop. - 0.37 sq. mi. (237 acres) - 74 residents per acre

NoMa is one of DC's fastest growing neighborhoods - Greater Greater Washington

Navy Yard/Capitol Riverfront projected at full build-out - 22,000 pop. - 0.78 sq. mi. (500 acres) - 44 residents per acre

Without the Navy Yard installation - 22,000 pop. - 0.72 sq. mi (459 acres) - 48 residents per acre

Note: I estimate Columbia Heights will reach 83 residents per acre in the coming years with a population of around 25,000 and Logan Circle will drift towards 74 residents per acre in the coming years with a population of 14,250.

NOMA will have a way higher population than that. NOMA/Union Market will have over 25,000 housing units at full buildout. You have to remember, the BID estimates are way off and were done when office space was the main driving force for development in NOMA. The same is true for Captital Riverfront. NOMA will approach a population close to 40,000 people at full buildout. Douglas Development alone is sitting on a plot of land that will add close to 5,000 people to the neighborhood across New York Avenue.

Capital Riverfront/Buzzard Point is another neighborhood that is way over what the BID projected. It will be heavy on residential versus office which was planned a decade ago and all those plots of land to the north across South Capitol St. that DC owns will add thousands of housing units to the area. The estimates are way below what is coming in almost every neighborhood for full buildout.

[MDAllstar]

Originally Posted by revitalizer

The Census Tract covering the Navy Yard has a huge land area (0.53 square miles). There are two Census Block Groups within that Census Tract. Block Group 1 (the area north of L St with a land area of only 0.12 sq. mi.) has a population density of 26,651 ppsm, while Block Group 2 (the area south of L St with a land area of 0.41 sq. mi.) has a population density of 2,785 ppsm (which is exceedingly low). I kept the whole Census Tract together in the map I posted as it represented the whole neighborhood in one unit.

With 10 apartment buildings under construction right now, we'll see this Census Tract gain population density fast as this residential product is delivered. 5,429 residential units are scheduled to be delivered in this Census Tract between now and 2018. The rise will be swift.

As for SW Waterfront, there is a high density Census Block Group (more dense than the one in Navy Yard) tucked into Census Tract 110 (this has the same problem though in that the other one Block Group is low density - but not as low as the one in Navy Yard).

The Greenleaf projects redevelopment is going to really increase the density between these two neighborhoods (Waterfront Station/Capitol Riverfront). Also, all those parking lots in the north next to South Capital Street.

[revitalizer]

Originally Posted by MDAllstar

NOMA will have a way higher population than that. NOMA/Union Market will have over 25,000 housing units at full buildout. You have to remember, the BID estimates are way off and were done when office space was the main driving force for development in NOMA. The same is true for Captital Riverfront. NOMA will approach a population close to 40,000 people at full buildout. Douglas Development alone is sitting on a plot of land that will add close to 5,000 people to the neighborhood across New York Avenue.

Capital Riverfront/Buzzard Point is another neighborhood that is way over what the BID projected. It will be heavy on residential versus office which was planned a decade ago and all those plots of land to the north across South Capitol St. that DC owns will add thousands of housing units to the area. The estimates are way below what is coming in almost every neighborhood for full buildout.

The NoMa Development Map (updated November 2015) says 11,646 total residential units. That's the current estimate. Of course, it could certainly go higher in a best case scenario for housing.

Union Market is getting 4,000 total residential units. Of course, it could go higher in a best case scenario for housing.

Capitol Riverfront BID says 14,611 total residential units. That's the current estimate as of the end of 2015. Of course, it could certainly go higher here too.

If we're going to use best case/bullish scenarios in these areas, I would also use a best case/bullish scenario for established areas in the core that still have in-fill and redevelopment potential. My estimate for Columbia Heights was based on minimal redevelopment of underutilized parcels/in-fill. I have spent a lot of hours on aerial maps, and I can see the areas where the redevelopment potential is based on current zoning.

I'd rather, for now, use what the professionals who are tracking these properties on a daily basis in NoMa and Capitol Riverfront are estimating (based on announced projects currently) and then adjust upwards later.

[revitalizer]

Originally Posted by MDAllstar

The Greenleaf projects redevelopment is going to really increase the density between these two neighborhoods (Waterfront Station/Capitol Riverfront). Also, all those parking lots in the north next to South Capital Street.

Yes! It surely will.

[MDAllstar]

Originally Posted by revitalizer

The NoMa Development Map (updated November 2015) says 11,646 total residential units. That's the current estimate. Of course, it could certainly go higher in a best case scenario for housing.

Union Market is getting 4,000 total residential units. Of course, it could go higher in a best case scenario for housing.

Capitol Riverfront BID says 14,611 total residential units. That's the current estimate as of the end of 2015. Of course, it could certainly go higher here too.

If we're going to use best case/bullish scenarios in these areas, I would also use a best case/bullish scenario for established areas in the core that still have in-fill and redevelopment potential. My estimate for Columbia Heights was based on minimal redevelopment of underutilized parcels/in-fill. I have spent a lot of hours on aerial maps, and I can see the areas where the redevelopment potential is based on current zoning.

I'd rather, for now, use what the professionals who are tracking these properties on a daily basis in NoMa and Capitol Riverfront are estimating (based on announced projects currently) and then adjust upwards later.

No, all of that is off. They have no estimates for the Douglas' owned plot of land or any of the northern development zone. Also, Union Market is slated for way more than that. It will probably have over 8,000 units at full buildout.

None of this even includes the residential that Edens will build. There is also a whole area as big as the JBG plot that has yet to have plans announced for its redevelopment right next to the Union Market building between 4th and 5th street:

-JBG with 1,800 units alone
-Kettler with 927 units
-Edens with 680 units
-Level 2 is building 315 units
-LCOR is building 187 units

=3,909 units on only 25% of the developable land at Union Market.