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If anything, their population has massively declined and continued to do so.
What makes you think the Asian population will rise?
Actually the Asian population in DC has NOT massively declined, they have grown significantly in DC. What happened is they became very upwardly mobile, so they became far less ghettoized. They don't live in Chinatown.
DC Asian Population 1990: 1.8%
DC Asian Population 2014: 4.0%
It basically doubled with gentrification.
The Asian population is very upwardly mobile, and they tend to be better integrated with the white population in general. They were massive beneficiaries of the civil rights act. It should be noted the median income, education, and wealth of Asians are AHEAD of whites. Asians are not poor, in fact they may be the most consistantly upper-middle class racial demographic there is. I think this is the mistake in perception by some, that Asians are poor. Rather than the fact they are fairly affluent.
So as DC grows more affluent, the Asian population is likely to continue to grow. I think it could easily double again, so maybe 8% in 20 years, which is close to Arlington. This is with the understanding of just how affluent Asians have become and as how areas become more affluent, they often become more Asian.
In terms of DC in general, one thing to note is in addition to gentrification, many buildings with LIHTC their contracts are likely to end in the next 15 years. Many of these were built in the 1980s and 1990s.
In addition to that is Public Housing is basically being starved out of existence by the federal government, and will likely be replaced by mixed income housing. With that being said, east of the river will probably still have a large share of affordable housing, but the LIHTC expiration will likely end much of the affordable housing west of it. Even with the investment by DC government, it is unlikely to stem the tide of these LIHTC housing exits. There really is not much DC government can do about it, the nature of the LIHTC is that it has a definitive end date. Because this housing was built after 1975, the exit will likely result in massive rent spikes immediately for those places west of the river. This will have an impact on demographics.
So here is my guess, I don't see DC's Black population to drop below 30%, but it will drop. There are far to many black professional workers here though, and that population is likely to increase. I also don't see significant changes happening east of the river, even 20 years out.
On the other end I do see the Asian and Latino population to go up. The country is becoming both more Asian and Latino, and DC will as well. Especially as immigrant families get into their second and third generation.
The White population will go up as well, but I do not see them being over 50%.
So here it is:
White Non-Latino: 40%
Black: 35%
Latino: 15% (DC is now currently 10%)
Asian: 8%
I am kind of realizing this is not going to be hard and fast, but in terms of racial breakdowns, I think NO group will be in a majority. DC will still be a majority minority city, but an actually diverse majority minority city.
I should note, that I also see DC at around 850k in terms of population.
Last edited by DistrictSonic; 03-28-2016 at 08:12 PM..
Actually the Asian population in DC has NOT massively declined, they have grown significantly in DC. What happened is they became very upwardly mobile, so they became far less ghettoized. They don't live in Chinatown.
DC Asian Population 1990: 1.8%
DC Asian Population 2014: 4.0%
It basically doubled with gentrification.
The Asian population is very upwardly mobile, and they tend to be better integrated with the white population in general. They were massive beneficiaries of the civil rights act. It should be noted the median income, education, and wealth of Asians are AHEAD of whites. Asians are not poor, in fact they may be the most consistantly upper-middle class racial demographic there is. I think this is the mistake in perception by some, that Asians are poor. Rather than the fact they are fairly affluent.
So as DC grows more affluent, the Asian population is likely to continue to grow. I think it could easily double again, so maybe 8% in 20 years, which is close to Arlington. This is with the understanding of just how affluent Asians have become and as how areas become more affluent, they often become more Asian.
In terms of DC in general, one thing to note is in addition to gentrification, many buildings with LIHTC their contracts are likely to end in the next 15 years. Many of these were built in the 1980s and 1990s.
In addition to that is Public Housing is basically being starved out of existence by the federal government, and will likely be replaced by mixed income housing. With that being said, east of the river will probably still have a large share of affordable housing, but the LIHTC expiration will likely end much of the affordable housing west of it. Even with the investment by DC government, it is unlikely to stem the tide of these LIHTC housing exits. There really is not much DC government can do about it, the nature of the LIHTC is that it has a definitive end date. Because this housing was built after 1975, the exit will likely result in massive rent spikes immediately for those places west of the river. This will have an impact on demographics.
So here is my guess, I don't see DC's Black population to drop below 30%, but it will drop. There are far to many black professional workers here though, and that population is likely to increase. I also don't see significant changes happening east of the river, even 20 years out.
On the other end I do see the Asian and Latino population to go up. The country is becoming both more Asian and Latino, and DC will as well. Especially as immigrant families get into their second and third generation.
The White population will go up as well, but I do not see them being over 50%.
So here it is:
White Non-Latino: 40%
Black: 35%
Latino: 15% (DC is now currently 10%)
Asian: 8%
I am kind of realizing this is not going to be hard and fast, but in terms of racial breakdowns, I think NO group will be in a majority. DC will still be a majority minority city, but an actually diverse majority minority city.
I should note, that I also see DC at around 850k in terms of population.
So demographically.. DC will basically become Montgomery County.
I still think the white population will pass 50% though at some point. However, taking things like immigration into account and the fact that DC is an international city.. I can easily see a situation where there is no majority group. I think that would be a good thing.
Also, the U.S. as a whole will eventually be a majority minority COUNTRY. Current birth rates dictate that whites have less babies than just about every other group. I believe this is true in Europe as well. On top of that.. whenever whites have babies with non-whites.. the baby usually takes on the racial identity of the non-white parent.
However, saying people will only move to DC for jobs is based too much on today and the past. You don't know what other draw or appeal DC might have in 20 years. The city has already expanded to be more than just a Government town and that will likely continue. I think in 20 years, people will want to move to DC for reasons outside their jobs. In fact, a lot of people want to live in DC for reasons outside their jobs already.
Think of other capital cities around the world like Paris. People don't only go there because its the capital.
Nothing lasts forever.
Personally I only think that the trend of people only moving to DC for a job will be greater in 20 years. Having lived in New Orleans and visited other cities I know that a lot of people move to these places because of the life style and culture and being that DC's work obsessed culture has only been more prevalent over the years I don't see people moving here and being a barista, bar tender, waitress, or etc just to experience the cities culture and amenities. I know this is one person's experience but I have yet to meet someone who has moved to DC in the past 5 years that wasn't bc of their job or the job opportunities that this city has.
Comparing D.C. to Paris is a stretch bc people visit and think of Paris for its food, wine, people, lifestyle and museums, and people visit DC only for its history and architecture. None of my friends who live in other cities in the us and abroad rave about the people (except for the region having a lot of middle and high class blacks) lift style and culture like people do for Paris.
My opinion, and it won't be liked, is the glory days of the 2000s-early 2010s are pretty much over. DC rode the wave of government money, and big time spending with the wars in the Middle East and the creation of Homeland security, along with the beginning of the Obama administration. It was the perfect storm to welcome as many newcomers as possible when it was basically the only rescession proof city when the housing market crash.
Did you ever heard of the city called the "Paris of the West"? The richest city in the country, and literally exploded in population. I'm not talking about DC, I'm talking about Detroit. Nothing lasts forever.
Here are the facts, right now, DC MD and VA are literally at 0% growth. The amount of newcomers to the area has been dropping, and most of the building and business coming around is because of the cannibalization of the suburbs. Wages in the area are declining after rising significantly in the past decade. In addition to that, young families are getting effectively stuck in starter homes or forced to move to far flung suburbs because they are effectively priced out of the area. Parts of NOVA are facing very high office vacancy rates, and they keep building more for some reason. And traffic is still the 2nd worst in the country, right behind LA.
Why else am I not optimistic? For one, it's blantently obvious the DC government is inept, corrupt, and incompetent. Times will be fine as long as the tax receipts keep coming in, but the foolheartedly way they waste money is completely nauseating. They are screwed when they have a lean time. Never mind the police dept is short staffed, the transportation is all messed up, among other things.
Other reasons? (I don't have any facts for this, just my personal experience)Well, a lot of transplants that are here just aren't fond of it. 1/3 of my office put in for transfers after the new year. I can't imagine that's isolated. Most say they want to move back home, or to some place cheaper. In addition to that, I know quiet a few gov workers and contractors that do all their work from home now. They want to cut back on office space. Who could blame them? That's easy money to save. I know my employer is consolidating 4 offices into one. The gov has an initiative to find out the carbon foot print for their offices. Cutting back on space and not making workers commute is huge to make that work. If you don't have to step foot in the office, why would you dig up your roots and move here? I know I wouldn't. We also have to take into consideration that it's still a one trick pony town. Remember when everyone started freaking out about the government shutting down for a week and a half? If a reformist ever gets elected into office (not likely), gov spending could get slashed considerably.
In the long run, I think the district will be a more desirable place to live than the MD VA burbs. For that reason, the district will continue attract people from all over. Let's face it, I think a private company would rather have a DC address than a Reston address. Just my opinion. Population will probably top out around. 800k and stay there for a while. Barring another huge war, I don't see an explosion of money like the last decade brought, but on the other hand, things will stay pretty stable.
Personally I only think that the trend of people only moving to DC for a job will be greater in 20 years. Having lived in New Orleans and visited other cities I know that a lot of people move to these places because of the life style and culture and being that DC's work obsessed culture has only been more prevalent over the years I don't see people moving here and being a barista, bar tender, waitress, or etc just to experience the cities culture and amenities. I know this is one person's experience but I have yet to meet someone who has moved to DC in the past 5 years that wasn't bc of their job or the job opportunities that this city has.
Comparing D.C. to Paris is a stretch bc people visit and think of Paris for its food, wine, people, lifestyle and museums, and people visit DC only for its history and architecture. None of my friends who live in other cities in the us and abroad rave about the people (except for the region having a lot of middle and high class blacks) lift style and culture like people do for Paris.
There are other factors like entertainment, food, status, public transportation, location and networking that could be a draw. I've heard people say they wanted to live in DC simply because they thought the city was clean and beautiful. So that has nothing to do with a job or with culture. You also have to factor in where a person is coming from. DC can be a mind blowing place if you're coming from some crummy city like Detroit or Pittsburgh. Some people like DC because you can live without a car and biking is easy. There are many factors people consider that have nothing to do with jobs, people or culture.
Also, consider DC's competition. People might move to Los Angeles for the weather. But I doubt they would move their for the people. Same with places like Boston and Philly. Outside of getting a job, why would you move there? The people? I doubt it. DC is better than the vast majority of cities in the U.S. (depending on taste) which is a draw on its own. On the East Coast, NYC is the only competition. DC smokes every other city.
Another edge DC has is status. Similar to how some people move to NYC just for the status of it, I can see people moving to DC for the same reason. It makes some people feel more important or successful if they live and work in a place like DC vs. a place like Pittsburgh. Ambitious people will always be attracted to prestigious cities.
Also, consider DC's competition. People might move to Los Angeles for the weather. But I doubt they would move their for the people. Same with places like Boston and Philly. Outside of getting a job, why would you move there? The people? I doubt it.
Actually the Asian population in DC has NOT massively declined, they have grown significantly in DC. What happened is they became very upwardly mobile, so they became far less ghettoized. They don't live in Chinatown.
DC Asian Population 1990: 1.8%
DC Asian Population 2014: 4.0%
It basically doubled with gentrification.
The Asian population is very upwardly mobile, and they tend to be better integrated with the white population in general. They were massive beneficiaries of the civil rights act. It should be noted the median income, education, and wealth of Asians are AHEAD of whites. Asians are not poor, in fact they may be the most consistantly upper-middle class racial demographic there is. I think this is the mistake in perception by some, that Asians are poor. Rather than the fact they are fairly affluent.
So as DC grows more affluent, the Asian population is likely to continue to grow. I think it could easily double again, so maybe 8% in 20 years, which is close to Arlington. This is with the understanding of just how affluent Asians have become and as how areas become more affluent, they often become more Asian.
In terms of DC in general, one thing to note is in addition to gentrification, many buildings with LIHTC their contracts are likely to end in the next 15 years. Many of these were built in the 1980s and 1990s.
In addition to that is Public Housing is basically being starved out of existence by the federal government, and will likely be replaced by mixed income housing. With that being said, east of the river will probably still have a large share of affordable housing, but the LIHTC expiration will likely end much of the affordable housing west of it. Even with the investment by DC government, it is unlikely to stem the tide of these LIHTC housing exits. There really is not much DC government can do about it, the nature of the LIHTC is that it has a definitive end date. Because this housing was built after 1975, the exit will likely result in massive rent spikes immediately for those places west of the river. This will have an impact on demographics.
So here is my guess, I don't see DC's Black population to drop below 30%, but it will drop. There are far to many black professional workers here though, and that population is likely to increase. I also don't see significant changes happening east of the river, even 20 years out.
On the other end I do see the Asian and Latino population to go up. The country is becoming both more Asian and Latino, and DC will as well. Especially as immigrant families get into their second and third generation.
The White population will go up as well, but I do not see them being over 50%.
So here it is:
White Non-Latino: 40%
Black: 35%
Latino: 15% (DC is now currently 10%)
Asian: 8%
I am kind of realizing this is not going to be hard and fast, but in terms of racial breakdowns, I think NO group will be in a majority. DC will still be a majority minority city, but an actually diverse majority minority city.
I should note, that I also see DC at around 850k in terms of population.
Yes, the Asian (East Asian, South Asian) population in DC by and large comprises of yuppies/working professionals, university students and foreign diplomats. To achieve a significant boost in the % of Asians overall living in DC, you need thier families and extended families living in DC too.
There is nothing unique about DC that would specifically draw Asians to it in larger numbers. Chinatown is a complete joke, and there are no other 'enclaves' so to speak.
On the other hand, in the future as Tysons Corner gets further built out, it may become an urban hub/mecca for Asian yuppies due to its closer proximity to Falls Church, Annandale, Fairfax/Chantilly etc.
Yes, the Asian (East Asian, South Asian) population in DC by and large comprises of yuppies/working professionals, university students and foreign diplomats. To achieve a significant boost in the % of Asians overall living in DC, you need thier families and extended families living in DC too.
There is nothing unique about DC that would specifically draw Asians to it in larger numbers. Chinatown is a complete joke, and there are no other 'enclaves' so to speak.
On the other hand, in the future as Tysons Corner gets further built out, it may become an urban hub/mecca for Asian yuppies due to its closer proximity to Falls Church, Annandale, Fairfax/Chantilly etc.
Isn't it racist to make so many assumptions about what Asians are drawn too? How many white yuppies have families around DC? How do we know the next generation of Asians will care about having family in the area?
Also, don't forget we are talking 20 years from now.
Yes, the Asian (East Asian, South Asian) population in DC by and large comprises of yuppies/working professionals, university students and foreign diplomats. To achieve a significant boost in the % of Asians overall living in DC, you need thier families and extended families living in DC too.
There is nothing unique about DC that would specifically draw Asians to it in larger numbers. Chinatown is a complete joke, and there are no other 'enclaves' so to speak.
On the other hand, in the future as Tysons Corner gets further built out, it may become an urban hub/mecca for Asian yuppies due to its closer proximity to Falls Church, Annandale, Fairfax/Chantilly etc.
I think the growth of DC's Asian population will be driven by native-born yuppie transplants and more affluent expats. Basically the same trends that drive DC's white population growth. Given the smaller size of the national Asian population, the absolute growth in the Asian population will be smaller than the growth in the white population, but it will almost certianly be larger in percentage terms.
The Hispanic population will also see similar trends as native-born Hispanic yuppies live with/near their yuppie counterparts. DC will also certainly have a small lower skilled immigrant Latino population living in non-markt units. This community will almost certainly be under gentrification pressures, but I think the sheer size and growth of the national Hispanic yuppie population will offset DC's relatively small Latino immigrant communities.
Asians are already at socio-economic parity with whites and are increasingly native-born. The Latino population lags behind whites socio-economically, but there has been a consistent progess in socio-economic convergence overtime. In 20 years, these gaps will almost certainly be much smaller as Asian and Hispanic populations are defined less by immigration.
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