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People are just spoiled brats who want the "high life" on the cheap. I have no problem affording DC and I'm middle class.
Houses in 20019 were selling for $220,000-$260,000 in 2015. Those same homes now sell for $310,000-$350,000 in 2017. How much longer do you think houses will be affordable in 20019, 20020, and 20032? Homes in Ward 7 and Ward 8 are the only affordable homes left in the city and they will be between $350,000-$400,000 in 2018. In a few years, you will not be able to buy a house in DC for under $500,000. How is that going to be affordable? It will continue to rise from there. The demand will always outpace the supply in D.C. proper.
Nice jobs on pulling the stats together. Yeah, the two sets of stats (rising AA population and stagnating earnings) taken together seem to indicate there is no massive displacement.
Although, I think it would be interesting to see:
1) what dose this look like by neighborhood? My guess is many easily accessible, amenity rich neighborhoods (Shaw, H Street, Petworth, Brookland) are indeed gentrifying (i.e. low income AA households being replaced by predominately white, middle/upper middle class professionals).
2) what is happening by social class? As you indicate I would imagine DC has a growing affluent AA yuppie population, a larger stable to slightly growing impoverished population living in subsidies housing, and stagnate to shrinking working/middle class as families can find a better COL in the suburbs.
3) how do African immigrants fit into the picture? In all honesty, I don't have a sense one way or the other.
I think a wild card to the wages discussion is the impending $15 minimum wage by 2020. That will substantially raise income levels for all low income families. Two parents working 38 hours per week making minimum wage will make $59,280 per year. We know employers will not give any of their workers 40 hours a week, so that is why I used 38 hours per week for this calculation. Still, making almost $60,000 per year as a family will change the average income in D.C. by a wide margin after 2020.
Houses in 20019 were selling for $220,000-$260,000 in 2015. Those same homes now sell for $310,000-$350,000 in 2017. How much longer do you think houses will be affordable in 20019, 20020, and 20032? Homes in Ward 7 and Ward 8 are the only affordable homes left in the city and they will be between $350,000-$400,000 in 2018. In a few years, you will not be able to buy a house in DC for under $500,000. How is that going to be affordable? It will continue to rise from there. The demand will always outpace the supply in D.C. proper.
Its breathtaking how you learned nothing from 2008. Prices never rise forever. The market corrects itself sooner or later.
Here is a brilliant idea: If you can't afford to buy a house then don't buy one.
Smart people know that you always buy LOW and sell HIGH. After the Great Depression in the 1930's AND the great Recession in 2008 you would think people would learn how this stuff works by now. I guess not LOL.
Because the middle class can barely afford to live in DC regardless of race. That's the missing middle. It's an economic discussion, not a race discussion. That's what I said before and to put it in context, look at San Francisco prices for housing. The reality is there will be affordable housing for all races at 60% AMI or under, but we need housing built at 80%-120% AMI which will allow people making between $70K-$100K to afford housing in the next 10-15 years.
Without, you will have to make way over $125K to afford to live in DC in 2030.
Okay, this makes more sense to your point, especially what I bolded. Thanks for clearing that up.
But I know some people who are middle class who have homes in DC and live comfortably. Like I said, I believe it depends on the "where" in DC. If someone gets a place in Georgetown, you're going to be paying a few million. But a place in NE shouldn't be that difficult for the average middle class family to afford.
I do agree with you in a sense, though, that the lower middle class is getting shunned here. In DC, they can either afford something in the Anacostia (aka the run down parts of DC) or move out to the burbs.
Also, what you're leaving out is the amount of debt that these middle class folks making 75-120K may have. I know of many people who are making good money, but get denied home loans because they have 200K student loan debts from grad school to pay off, so they can't afford to buy a home either.
I figured as much. Nobody with kids would say "DC is extremely affordable."
Boo hoo.
We all learn basic Math in school for a reason. If a person decides they want kids and a family, maybe they should sit down with a calculator and a piece of paper and do the math first lol.
If I decided I want kids and a family, I will figure out what that costs before doing it. Then I will do one of three things:
1. Not have kids
2. Get out of DC and go where I can afford to raise kids
3. Find a way to raise my income
People make idiotic life choices, then they want to blame outside factors.
Living well is pretty easy. The formula is a simple as don't do things you cannot afford to do.
We all learn basic Math in school for a reason. If a person decides they want kids and a family, maybe they should sit down with a calculator and a piece of paper and do the math first lol.
If I decided I want kids and a family, I will figure out what that costs before doing it. Then I will do one of three things:
1. Not have kids
2. Get the hell out of DC and go where I can afford to raise kids
3. Find a way to raise my income
People make idiotic life choices, then they want to blame outside factors.
Living well is pretty easy. The formula is a simple as don't do things you cannot afford to do.
Actually, what many people fail to realize is DC builds thousands of affordable housing units. I believe the current number is close to 8,000 either under construction or planned to breakground. There are multiple LIHTC (Low Income Housing Tax Credit) buildings under construction in the city. As long as DC continues to build affordable housing, the city will continue to gain low income residents and most of them are African American.
As for people losing their jobs, DC's unemployment rate has dropped for all races since 2010 so you would be wrong again. A more realistic conclusion is that DC is losing more high income earners who can't qualify for affordable housing and move outside the city being replaced by people who do qualify moving back into the city.
The free market will never keep housing affordable. You have to keep housing affordable through policy like inclusionary zoning or LIHTC units.
The real issue is moderate income African Americans that don't qualify for affordable housing. It's the missing middle.
DC itself is not building new units. The financing for public housing, both to build new public housing and maintain existing units is vanishing. The same can be said for section 8 vouchers. What the trust is largely used for is rent controlled buildings and updating them, and converting them to LIHTC buildings with income caps. I know this is complicated, but it does help distinguish what is going on. In terms of new LIHTC buildings not much is being built, and many LIHTC buildings are being converted to market rate. DC is actually losing a good chunk of income capped housing even with units being preserved with the LIHTC houses contracts expiring.
What DC is doing is providing some of the financing for LIHTC buildings. What DC is doing is mostly preserving existing units which is already affordable. That build is build and preserve. Mostly through the LIHTC. So those LIHTC are not on top of the buildings being built, they are the units being built. That is what the trust fund is contributing too...preserving what units they can, and trying to get new units in the pipeline, but much of it is preservation. Usually helping existing tenants use DC's tenant laws to purchase rent controlled buildings. This is not new housing stock, it is existing stock.
Most of Inclusionary Zoning is for moderate incomes. It is below the AMI, which is $100k+. But from a national perspective our inclusionary zoning cutoff is close to the national median income.
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