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DC's Census Tract 72 is set to show massive population growth in Census 2020 and beyond.
In 2010, Census Tract 72, representing .53 square miles of land area in the Navy Yard neighborhood of DC, had 2,800 residents.
Between 2010 and April 2020, I estimate about 7,000 new residential units will have been built in this census tract. There were 2,370 existing units built before 2010.
The April 2020 Census-count population for this census tract should be about 14,000 residents, which assumes 95% occupancy in the residential buildings and 1.6 persons per household.
The Census Bureau suggests census tracts range in population from 1,200 to 8,000, with an optimum size of 4,000 people.
Because Census Tract 72 will be over 3x the optimum size in 2020, I suggest the census tract be split into 3 separate tracts as shown in the map I created below:
If the tract were to be split in this arrangement, DC would have a census tract (Proposed Census Tract 72.01) of about 135,000+ people per square mile by the 2030 census and would join a small list of cities in the U.S. with census tracts that dense.
In 2030, when the neighborhood will be at or near full buildout, I estimate about 24,000+ residents.
That would be tremendous growth of over 750% for an area that is just over a half square-mile.
Last edited by revitalizer; 08-28-2019 at 04:33 PM..
DC's Census Tract 72 is set to show massive population growth in Census 2020 and beyond.
In 2010, Census Tract 72, representing .53 square miles of land area in the Navy Yard neighborhood of DC, had 2,800 residents.
Between 2010 and April 2020, I estimate about 7,000 new residential units will have been built in this census tract. There were 2,370 existing units built before 2010.
The April 2020 Census-count population for this census tract should be about 14,000 residents, which assumes 95% occupancy in the residential buildings and 1.6 persons per household.
The Census Bureau suggests census tracts range in population from 1,200 to 8,000, with an optimum size of 4,000 people.
Because Census Tract 72 will be over 3x the optimum size in 2020, I suggest the census tract be split into 3 separate tracts as shown in the map I created below:
If the tract were to be split in this arrangement, DC would have a census tract (Proposed Census Tract 72.01) of about 135,000+ people per square mile by the 2030 census and would join a small list of cities in the U.S. with census tracts that dense.
In 2030, when the neighborhood will be at or near full buildout, I estimate about 24,000+ residents.
That would be tremendous growth of over 750% for an area that is just over a half square-mile.
Really great work. Do you have any numbers for Noma and Union Market?
That's probably why that area is basically Arlington East, except more dangerous still. I think some dude was beaten to death outside his apartment building just the other day.
For sure, it has been on the best transformations in the entire US.
Its impressive in one sense but also revealing in terms of just how unimaginative and vanilla urban regeneration has become. Every time I go to a game the area looks a little more like the R-B corridor.
Its impressive in one sense but also revealing in terms of just how unimaginative and vanilla urban regeneration has become. Every time I go to a game the area looks a little more like the R-B corridor.
Have you ever ventured over to the part of the Navy Yard neighborhood with the repurposed industrial buildings that used to be part of the Navy Yard that are now residential and retail buildings? I find this area to be the most interesting, character-filled part of the neighborhood.
That was a good read. Thanks for posting the article.
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