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The real question is how many black people will be pushed out of the city by 2025.
A lot if the District government, MD, and VA don't get serious about allowing substantially more housing units to be built around the region.
To the extent being black is correlated with income (which is a lot due to historical and current discrimination), black Americans (and low income residents generally) will suffer the most from any housing shortage:
Realistically I think 800k is obtainable. But it will be hard to get to 900k in the next 20 years. DC wasn't built for mass density like a grand European capital. The vast majority of the city residential land area is rowhouses and SFH. There simply isn't the political will to redevelop those to higher densities. That pretty much leaves small sections of the city to add in housing. Well it's impressive to see 10,000 units going up in NoMa or Navy Yard...it just isn't that much in the grand scheme of things.
People forget there is an entire section of the city in Ward's 7 and Ward's 8 preparing to go through massive redevelopment. That is how DC will reach 1 million people. Things like this below are going to be happening over the next 20 years every week just like it happens in the core of DC.
The real question is how many black people will be pushed out of the city by 2025.
DC has gained thousands of black people since 2010. The real question is will you read that in a news headline from the media? My guess, probably not..........
DC can keep growing exponentially. Gentrification will continue to grow in NE, SE, and SW. By building more large apartment complexes, you can fit a lot of people into small lots that are currently taken up by projects, rowhouses, vacant land, etc. in undesirable areas. Also, I feel DC would ease up on the current height restrictions if it came down to it. Right now, there are plenty of neighborhoods that can grow. That means a lot of people will be pushed out to make room for higher income people, but its been happening, and will continue to do so.
For every redevelopment of a public housing complex or increase in rent across the city, DC has built affordable housing to mitigate the loss of those units 3/1. The city builds thousands of affordable housing units.
The goal is not to push out all the blacks, they are entrenched in certain areas. The goal is to achieve best use of land. But over time, as housing deteriorates and those who own the property lack the funds to rebuild, developers can purchase and rebuild. However, since new buildings cost more, fewer blacks can move in. In general, household income for blacks is 33% of a white household. But of course there is variation, and the wealthiest people (the developers) are basically either white, jewish or asian...its not like these guys are going to be tenants lol. DC will slowly move towards becoming a urban city, but protections on low income people need to be relieved so they can resettle in less valuable areas. We are working on projects that allow a graceful transition, for lower income housing which provides a HIGHER standard of living to people who are unable to earn more, outside of the areas that need to be developed to reach their full potential. Land is valued based on the best available use of that land, so the transition into a denser urban area is just a matter of time. It will take a 100 years though, not 15 or 25 or something like that.
yeah can't get rid of them. Its sad to see businesses and churches have to put up Black Lives Matter posters to prevent them from breaking the windows and looting that business. If I was black, I would understand that those places are just pandering to blacks, and I would loot them first!
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