Outstanding journalism - fascinating science - article about Cascadian Subduction "Big One"

[elkotronics]

Did you hear the "freight-train" noise during the mid 90's one, Ruth4Truth?

[Jumpindogs]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jumpindogs
Definitely.

The bothersome aspects of "the big one", though, are the level of unpreparedness in the PNW as compared to Japan and the sudden remoteness of the OP when all the bridges fail. Not sure what can be done about ensuring delivery of emergency supplies and care to the OP. But the PNW could certainly stand to wise up and learn a thing or two from Japan about preparedness now that earthquake science has progressed and consequently found the Cascadia Subduction Zone to be a much greater concern than was previously assumed.

Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal

I don't think the PNW is totally unprepared, I think we just came late to the game. In Oregon, seismic codes weren't really brought up to the standard that we needed until the 90s. I worked on some of the early Oregon tsunami research with the USGS, my university and several state offices and everyone got the message fairly fast that there were big issues. Seismic retrofit programs were put into place, requiring massive $$$$ and a lot of time, particularly on infrastructure and public buildings.

The problem is that you don't get to just flip a switch and fix everything and some problems are less fixable than others. Live on low-lying land near the sea that was built on fill? Hmmm. That is a huge problem in a big event and fast evacuation is about the only solution - other than ordering the land razed, which is not likely to happen. Even now some of the coast communities in Oregon are fighting further tsunami signage and construction (shelters, safe areas, building codes) because it might put off tourists.

The New Yorker article deals with the absolute worst case event - the re-occurrence of the largest magnitude event with an epicenter somewhere near the Seattle area. The plate boundary area runs from Northern California to BC - the epicenter may be 600 miles south. The occurrence interval is somewhere between 300 and, at the high side, 800 years and the last one was 1700, so we are well into the time frame of another event.

The tsunami hazard is still a problem, take a look at images from the Alaska Good Friday quake (1963?) and the damage done in bays and inlets and the Sound.

The take-away from the article should be: potential for a big earthquake exists (from Northern California into Canada) and you need to think about it and frame a plan. Not just the subduction zone quake, Seattle has its own series of faults (we live on the Ring of Fire - we have active volcanoes, OF COURSE there are risks).

Earthquake - Emergency Management | seattle.gov

Yup on all counts.

And just to be clear, I did not write that the PNW was totally unprepared. I wrote that the PNW is unprepared to a degree that is bothersome when compared to Japan. Considering that parts of well prepared Japan were devastated, that is a legitimate concern.

Fighting tsunami signage/construction/shelter to avoid putting off tourists is intentionally deceptive if one truly understands the issue. Residents may know where to flee. Tourists will have no idea without signage. That's almost criminal.

I wonder how many residents of the PNW have thought about it...beyond just deciding that they won't think about it...and have actually designed a plan (stocked and accesible backpack, walking escape route, etc.) My guess is very few.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by elkotronics

Did you hear the "freight-train" noise during the mid 90's one, Ruth4Truth?

No. Your whole description of it has me wondering if it was the same one I experienced. It was very mild in my neighborhood. That freight train noise sounds terrifying! I'm wondering if the difference might have to do with the difference in geology from one neighborhood to another.

[elkotronics]

Yeah, it was really weird. And sudden. It just rushed up to us and got louder and louder. I think a lot of us were really confused for a few seconds. By the time the lady said real loud "earthquake" I was already figuring it out what was going on. Didn't shake the building violently up and down like the 40-88 Building event in 2001. It did shake it somewhat, though.