Snowpack, water levels and 2020 fire season forecasts (Pacific: budget, activity)

[MtnSurfer]

With all the precipitation we've been getting in June in WWA, I was reading it has been one of the rainiest Junes on record. Combine that with decent snowpack including water levels and this summer seems to be looking better than others when it comes to early fires. While no one can predict the future, at least the short term forecast looks to have more rain mixed with sun over the next few weeks. Here's an interesting read looking at the numbers as of last month. And we've had quite a bit more rain since:

Snowpack, Streamflow and Water Resources This Summer


Does anyone care to hazard a guess if we'll have a smokey summer like we did in 2018?

I would guess no at this stage with some caveats including a similar pattern continuing throughout June before the dry season really comes into full swing during July/August. It seems like every time I look at the longer range forecast it changes. But at least the forests are is good and wet now with lots of snow in the mountains albeit melting fast.

Derek

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

Does anyone care to hazard a guess if we'll have a smokey summer like we did in 2018?
Derek

I'm always up for good news in this regard, but the main question is; what does the picture look like in BC? That's where most of the fire smoke was coming from. Is the interior of BC getting the same rainy weather pattern as western WA? One might assume so, but IMO it's best to assume nothing, and keep an eye on Canada's Pacific weather reports.

Still, it's good to know, that W WA may be damp enough to discourage regional fires there. Thanks for that bit of good news.

Somewhat rainy Junes used to be normal. A long time ago.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

I'm always up for good news in this regard, but the main question is; what does the picture look like in BC? That's where most of the fire smoke was coming from. Is the interior of BC getting the same rainy weather pattern as western WA? One might assume so, but IMO it's best to assume nothing, and keep an eye on Canada's Pacific weather reports.

Still, it's good to know, that W WA may be damp enough to discourage regional fires there. Thanks for that bit of good news.

Somewhat rainy Junes used to be normal. A long time ago.

Interesting to consider BC fire conditions as well. Yes, I recall much of the smoke was coming from their fires.

With most west coast weather patterns, the majority of fronts we get flow down from the north. So, I think they've been getting some decent rain as well. In performing a quick search, I did find one promising map here:





In looking at another, WA and most of OR are looking good so far. However, there are already some problem areas in southern Oregon, NorCal, AZ, UT and NW.




Derek

[509]

Forget June....following is worth reading.


https://slate.com/technology/2020/06...re-season.html


Write you Federal elected representatives and the Governor Inslee and Hillary Franz. The public lands in Washington state need to be closed on August 1st and then remain closed until the fall rains.


70% of Washington's wildfire's are started by humans. This year, we need to close the public lands starting on August 1st.


https://www.spokesman.com/blogs/outd...s-study-finds/

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by 509

Forget June....following is worth reading.


https://slate.com/technology/2020/06...re-season.html


Write you Federal elected representatives and the Governor Inslee and Hillary Franz. The public lands in Washington state need to be closed on August 1st and then remain closed until the fall rains.


70% of Washington's wildfire's are started by humans. This year, we need to close the public lands starting on August 1st.


https://www.spokesman.com/blogs/outd...s-study-finds/

This, absolutely!

Add to the letter, a plea for restoring the budget to the National Park Service and other relevant agencies, so that better fire prevention measures can be taken. Dead trees, of which there are quite a few after years of drought and bark beetle infestation, need to be removed, so as not to serve as fuel for fires. There are probably other preventive measures that have been neglected, too, due to lack of manpower.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

Interesting to consider BC fire conditions as well. Yes, I recall much of the smoke was coming from their fires.

With most west coast weather patterns, the majority of fronts we get flow down from the north. So, I think they've been getting some decent rain as well. In performing a quick search, I did find one promising map here:





In looking at another, WA and most of OR are looking good so far. However, there are already some problem areas in southern Oregon, NorCal, AZ, UT and NW.




Derek

Thanks for posting these maps! Looks at northern CA: Mendocino and Trinity Counties have the Humboldt/Del Norte rain forest surrounded! That is one scary map! Oregon's not looking too good, either.

[Ruth4Truth]

The map changes for August. Here's August 2020's map. Eastern WA and most of OR don't look good:

https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive...h3_outlook.png

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

The map changes for August. Here's August 2020's map. Eastern WA and most of OR don't look good:

Ruth,

Yeah, I saw that. Hopefully the longer range forecast is more speculative. Much of it depends on human activity/stupidity, unfortunately.

I saw the news recently that there is a big wildfire in the Southwest right now. Is that anywhere near you? Are you getting smoke from it?

Firefighters grapple with triple-digit heat against wildfire

Derek

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

Ruth,

Yeah, I saw that. Hopefully the longer range forecast is more speculative. Much of it depends on human activity/stupidity, unfortunately.

I saw the news recently that there is a big wildfire in the Southwest right now. Is that anywhere near you? Are you getting smoke from it?

Firefighters grapple with triple-digit heat against wildfire

Derek

I'm nowhere near there. Didn't even know about it.

These fires are going to be even more of a problem, when drought diminishes the supply of water to fight them with.


That fire risk map site is a great tool for tracking fire risk, for anyone contemplating a relocation. I've been sharing it around. Thanks again!

[thatguy950]

All the rain this late could be good or bad depending on how things go from here on, if it suddenly turns extremely hot and dry seemingly overnight like it has in years past that could mean even more fuel for brush fires in the form of suddenly dry wispy vegetation that has continued to grow later into spring than it usually does