Vaccine Mandates - your opinion (Seattle: assessment, rated, classroom)

[Botev1912]

Originally Posted by Natnasci

Higher vaccinated countries have lower death and hospitalization rates. Natural immunity only lasts so long. Vaccines can extend immunity.

Which goes back to my point.

The CDC recommending Americans not visit Canada because of Covid, is hysterical, when you look at the numbers in both countries.

Natural immunity is real as it always has been since humanity exists. Look at South Africa in the Omicron wave where only 27% of the population is fully vaccinated. For the record I have two doses of Pfizer and I have never had covid (so far and I know everybody will catch it sooner or later) and I understand governments are doing everything possible to vaccinate as many people as possible so they still disregard natural immunity but that will change eventually. As it was said earlier, it's not effective or even safe to get boosters so often.

[Natnasci]

Originally Posted by Botev1912

Natural immunity is real as it always has been since humanity exists. Look at South Africa in the Omicron wave where only 27% of the population is fully vaccinated. For the record I have two doses of Pfizer and I have never had covid (so far and I know everybody will catch it sooner or later) and I understand governments are doing everything possible to vaccinate as many people as possible so they still disregard natural immunity but that will change eventually. As it was said earlier, it's not effective or even safe to get boosters so often.

There are reasons why SA has done OK with a low vaccination rate. It depends on the age of the population, and which age group is more likely to be vaccinated.


"The WHO warns that the data suggesting the variant could be milder could also be skewed by the fact that numbers in hospital are small, and most of those admitted are under the age of 40 - so at lower risk of falling seriously ill.

They may be in hospital for other reasons - but South African hospitals test everyone who is admitted, so pick up a lot of mild cases.

It could also be because over-60s in South Africa are much more likely than the average population there to be vaccinated, protecting them against severe disease.

And South Africa has a young population, with a median age of 27.6 years compared with 40.4 in the UK for example - so its experience of Omicron may not be the same as countries with older populations."

https://www.bbc.com/news/59667268

[Arcos]

Both natural immunity and vaccination have a shelf life against this disease. The range for natural immunity is 2-3 months to a couple of years. It depends on the person. And the risks to acquire natural immunity are much higher (and burdensome to society) than the vaccine.

We don’t really have to fight over whether natural immunity OR vaccination have helped against omicron. They have BOTH proven to be somewhat effective at preventing infections, (being boosted is better than natural immunity) and SIGNIFICANTLY effective at preventing hospitalization. The second effect lasts a lot longer, for both.

Repeated vaccinations may be less effective when compared to the first time you get a vaccine series (as Botev’s link earlier showed). However, Botev, you haven’t proven that repeated vaccinations are less effective and less safe than repeated bouts of natural infection.

Either way, it’s the combination, not either/or, that will get us through this.

[MechAndy]

I currently see this as us having another mild cold that is here to stay.
This will be similar the the colds and flu’s we already have.
We won’t be able to vaccinate or mandate our way out of this for the same reasons we can’t do that to our current colds and flu’s.
That’s because they constantly are mutating and spread very fast.

I don’t keep up with the UK so I’m not sure why people think that the UK will be the first to consider this an endemic.
Is it because they have vaccinated the snot out of themselves or is it for political reasons?
My money would be placed on political reasons if I had to wager on this.

I think that America will consider this an endemic when it is politically rewarding so I think we will have a big shift in policy right about election time.

So my question for all is how long will we continue to shutdown ourselves over a common cold?
I’m still at about 90 days.

I’m going to start selling squares similar to a Super Bowl pool @$20 each.
Of course I’m just joking but it wouldn’t surprise me if Las Vegas isn’t already thinking about it .

[Arcos]

Originally Posted by MechAndy

I currently see this as us having another mild cold that is here to stay.
This will be similar the the colds and flu’s we already have.
We won’t be able to vaccinate or mandate our way out of this for the same reasons we can’t do that to our current colds and flu’s.
That’s because they constantly are mutating and spread very fast.

I don’t keep up with the UK so I’m not sure why people think that the UK will be the first to consider this an endemic.
Is it because they have vaccinated the snot out of themselves or is it for political reasons?
My money would be placed on political reasons if I had to wager on this.

Because they are a couple of months ahead of us on omicron and have a somewhat more vaccinated population. Also, they have excellent Covid testing (always free, easily available, even thru the omicron wave, so they can manage the crisis better since they aren’t afraid of data, like some

I think that America will consider this an endemic when it is politically rewarding so I think we will have a big shift in policy right about election time. DING DING DING!

So my question for all is how long will we continue to shutdown ourselves over a common cold?
I’m still at about 90 days.

Sounds right on the timeline, but the data show it’s 25% less lethal than delta, not at all like the common cold. You have to look at ALL the data, not just the part you like

I’m going to start selling squares similar to a Super Bowl pool @$20 each.
Of course I’m just joking but it wouldn’t surprise me if Las Vegas isn’t already thinking about it .

My points inserted in red (I hope).

[flyingsaucermom]

Originally Posted by Arcos

My points inserted in red (I hope).

You say that UK is ahead in Omicron by a couple months? I thought it was only discovered in SA in mid-November.

[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/omicron-variant.html#:~:text=Emergence%20of%20Omicron%20On %20November,2021%20in%20South%20Africa[/url].

Sorry, but this is from the CDC itself. You're wrong. It hit the UK at most a few weeks earlier than the US.

[Arcos]

Originally Posted by flyingsaucermom

You say that UK is ahead in Omicron by a couple months? I thought it was only discovered in SA in mid-November.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...South%20Africa.

Sorry, but this is from the CDC itself. You're wrong. It hit the UK at most a few weeks earlier than the US.

Apologies. I was inaccurate in my statement. Omicron hit the UK earlier than it did the US, and also spread to the entire nation much faster. As of a ?week or two? ago, it was still spreading in the US and displacing Delta. The US is a vast nation, and much more populated (and less dense) and so the progression of the disease will take more time than in the UK, which is actually quite a tiny island nation. Ultimately, the US will get to the same place as the UK, but it will take a couple of months longer.

Since this is so fast moving, even this statement may be somewhat off, but my general sentiment remains… it will take more time for the US to be done with the current omicron spike than the UK. So the UK will potentially go endemic before the US (caveat, if the Johnson government falls, timeline may change, purely from the delay.)

Thanks for the correction.

[Arcos]

Originally Posted by flyingsaucermom

You say that UK is ahead in Omicron by a couple months? I thought it was only discovered in SA in mid-November.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...South%20Africa.

Sorry, but this is from the CDC itself. You're wrong. It hit the UK at most a few weeks earlier than the US.

By the way, interestingly, omicron was in the UK a month before it was detected in SA, at least. It wasn’t discovered in SA yet, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t already there, and hadn’t already spread elsewhere. Covid is always a couple of steps ahead, which is why health officials urge caution and not just to drop restrictions as soon as it seems things are getting better. That next punch will come before you are ready for it, so don’t drop your guard entirely.

[flyingsaucermom]

Originally Posted by Arcos

By the way, interestingly, omicron was in the UK a month before it was detected in SA, at least. It wasn’t discovered in SA yet, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t already there, and hadn’t already spread elsewhere. Covid is always a couple of steps ahead, which is why health officials urge caution and not just to drop restrictions as soon as it seems things are getting better. That next punch will come before you are ready for it, so don’t drop your guard entirely.

And it was probably here too.

[Botev1912]

Originally Posted by Arcos

My points inserted in red (I hope).

Where do you get the 25% from? Is that based on community impact? Meaning a lot more people get it but 25% fewer people die in that period? On an individual basis, it's more like 90% less lethal. Just look at the data comparing hospitalizations and deaths between Delta and Omicron. Remember, it could be even milder than the flu for all ages.