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Old 08-16-2007, 11:41 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
1,235 posts, read 3,775,072 times
Reputation: 397

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Winkelman: Your assessment of my views is partially correct. I do have a lot of negative feelings about the far Right, as well as the hyper-controlling politically-correct Left.

But I have absolutely no political reason to want global warming to be true. Here are some possible alternative reasons for subconsciously wanting it to be true:

1. it's entertaining (this is the type of sick thing that goes on in my head like watching the Asian Tsunami, it makes interesting news stories, but it's totally unrelated to my politics)

2. if I can figure out how property values might shift, in the event that the planet does warm up and sea levels rise as predicted, then I'd want to invest in places that will benefit from climate change. Again, this is a sick personal motivation that's unrelated to politics. If anything I would want Republicans to win so that global warming would be hastened and then I could cash in on my investment sooner!

But I'm really not as sick and twisted as I just made myself out to be. The real reason for the political comments is that I've never encountered a GW naysayer who wasn't politically motivated. Skeptics, sure, they're all over the place, we should ALL be skeptics. I'm differentiating between those who seem convinced that humans are not affecting the climate vs. those who see the evidence that we are but know that we cannot yet say with certainty how we're affecting it and what it all means for the future. On this last point it seems we're in agreement, yes?
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Old 08-16-2007, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,841 posts, read 19,036,544 times
Reputation: 9586
Default But on the other hand!

Winkleman wrote:
I by the way am very middle of the road, not a Limbaugh fan at all.
I'm pretty much like you as far as being in the middle of the road. I'm also middle of the road in regard to Rush Limbaugh. On the one hand I ocassionally listen to his show, but on the other hand I don't believe a word he says.

regards....Franco
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Old 08-17-2007, 04:41 PM
 
458 posts, read 779,168 times
Reputation: 156
"Winkelman: Your assessment of my views is partially correct. I do have a lot of negative feelings about the far Right, as well as the hyper-controlling politically-correct Left."

That's why I am a centrist. Both extremes have to lie and manipulate their base to move them into action.

"Asian Tsunami,"

So what does the Asian Tsunami have to do with Global Warming? Does GW cause earthquakes? That is like saying the Hurricane Katrina disaster or the Minnesota bridge collapse were caused by GW. They were both primarily man made disasters. If the levies in New Orleans were built properly Katrina would have been just another Hurricane that caused some damage, like Rita.

"The real reason for the political comments is that I've never encountered a GW naysayer who wasn't politically motivated".

Well I am a skeptic, I am not a big fan of Al Gore, George Bush, The U.N. or much of the political establishment either here or abroad. And until when and if the global temperature stats are checked independently and verified to be accurate, I will have to wait and see on GW. Because if the numbers are wrong, then the scientific evaluations are flawed.
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Old 08-17-2007, 05:51 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
1,235 posts, read 3,775,072 times
Reputation: 397
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman View Post
"Asian Tsunami,"

So what does the Asian Tsunami have to do with Global Warming? Does GW cause earthquakes? That is like saying the Hurricane Katrina disaster or the Minnesota bridge collapse were caused by GW.
Actually there's no connection between what I was saying and what you think you're responding to. When you turn on the news, you watch to see news. If there's no news that holds your interest, you change the channel. News is entertainment. If global warming happens as predicted by many, then there will be some entertaining news --- that's all I was saying. And I openly admitted to the fact that this is a very warped motive on my part, but I was also being tongue-in-cheek about it. As in "global warming would be entertaining to watch on TV." Got it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman View Post
"The real reason for the political comments is that I've never encountered a GW naysayer who wasn't politically motivated".

Well I am a skeptic, I am not a big fan of Al Gore, George Bush, The U.N. or much of the political establishment either here or abroad.
See, there you go, we agree! I watched An Inconvenient Truth with an air-sickness bag by my side because half of the film was a documentary about the amazingly wonderful saint, Al Gore. And they didn't even bring up his invention of the Internet! Surely this man will be canonized among the most revered Saints of all time.

And you already know I'm not a Bush fan. We've never discussed the U.N. but I can summarize my feelings about them with one comment: they put Sudan on the Human Rights council or some such committee. Great. Might as well use OJ Simpson as a door-to-door kitchen knife salesman. I mean, gimme a break... The Sudan? Human Rights? (Now I'm scared my computer will crash because I typed such extreme contradictions, it's possible that Windows XP has no provision for dealing with such things... gotta get into Linux....)
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Old 08-17-2007, 07:42 PM
 
458 posts, read 779,168 times
Reputation: 156
"See, there you go, we agree"

I am not sure if I could get through An Inconvenient Truth. Al Gore is one of the big reasons I have doubts about GW. He just seems like a perfect example of an insincere politician. I have to hand it to him, he has figured out a way to reinvent himself.

This is from his 1996 convention speech:

"until I draw my last breath, I will pour my heart and soul into the cause of protecting our children from the dangers of smoking".

I guess he has found a better use of his time.


As far as the U.N. goes, they are occasionally helpful but I am not sure that justifies their existence.

"(Now I'm scared my computer will crash because I typed such extreme contradictions, it's possible that Windows XP has no provision for dealing with such things... gotta get into Linux....)"

Download UBUNTU. I started tinkering with it a few months ago, now I am 100% Bill Gates free.
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Old 08-20-2007, 11:03 AM
 
Location: Seattle, WA
269 posts, read 1,245,807 times
Reputation: 158
Getting a meaningful average of the state of weather is really difficult ... especially when we know there are lots of different oscillations going on in the atmosphere/hydrosphere, some of which are not well coupled to the astronomical cycles (day, month, year), e.g., the El Nino cycle. When you add energy to an oscillatory system, to first order, the first thing that happens is that it oscillates more strongly. A change in the average takes some cleverness to measure meaningfully.

I am not an expert, but the one data stream that is just about bulletproof is the Mauna Loa CO2 measurements, going back 50 years, where the atmospheric CO2 concentration has gone up about 60 ppm (from a starting point of about 315-320 ppm).

With some math you can take the mass of Earth's atmosphere and turn that change in CO2 content into a mass of the added CO2. Then you can gather numbers for coal & oil production worldwide and with some simple assumptions (e.g., approx. all the coal is burned, about half the petroleum is) estimate a mass for the anthropogenic CO2 release over that time. That estimated anthropogenic CO2 mass is larger than but comparable to the change in atmosphere CO2 mass ... which is what ought to happen if some, but not all, of the anthropogenic CO2 release is absorbed somewhere and removed from the atmosphere. That those two numbers turn out to be so close is a very strong argument that the CO2 level change is anthropogenic in origin.

The next step is: how does that relate to atmosphere temperature? There's a simple physical effect that, if nothing else is going on, means that extra CO2 must cause an increase in temperature at the Earth's surface ... in the context of the planet, it is called the "greenhouse effect". I do not know of a similarly simple physical effect that works in the opposite direction.

Thing is, there is other stuff going on, and I don't know enough to be able to say what those are. That gets into climate models, about which I know little.
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Old 08-20-2007, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
1,235 posts, read 3,775,072 times
Reputation: 397
Quote:
Originally Posted by jabm67 View Post
...That those two numbers turn out to be so close is a very strong argument that the CO2 level change is anthropogenic in origin.

The next step is: how does that relate to atmosphere temperature? There's a simple physical effect that, if nothing else is going on, means that extra CO2 must cause an increase in temperature at the Earth's surface ... in the context of the planet, it is called the "greenhouse effect". I do not know of a similarly simple physical effect that works in the opposite direction.

Thing is, there is other stuff going on...
Thanks for a brilliant post, free of politics and packed with objective, verifiable information. I like the way you think. I bet you vote independently as well, rather than following the mandates of a particular ideology. Just a guess...

Too bad you're among a tiny minority of people who think freely and independently.
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Old 08-21-2007, 08:45 AM
 
Location: Seattle, WA
269 posts, read 1,245,807 times
Reputation: 158
FWIW, this morning I was shown a link to this, a blog by people actually in the climate modeling biz. The entry there dated Aug 10 bears directly upon the question that spawned this thread.
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Old 08-21-2007, 05:32 PM
 
458 posts, read 779,168 times
Reputation: 156
Quote:
Originally Posted by jabm67 View Post
FWIW, this morning I was shown a link to this, a blog by people actually in the climate modeling biz. The entry there dated Aug 10 bears directly upon the question that spawned this thread.
realclimate.org is a far left pro global warming site:

Penraker: Fenton Communications Behind RealClimate Site?

Paid for by David Felton Communications, who does the PR for Cindy Sheehan, Moveon.org, Green Peace and the U.N.'s IPCC.

Show me one group of scientists pushing Global Warming that is not in bed with either Al Gore or the far left.

Google Felton Communications and your realclimate.org and you will see for yourself.
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Old 08-22-2007, 08:33 AM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,841 posts, read 19,036,544 times
Reputation: 9586
A short, interesting article on global warming:

3 stupidest global warming solutions of the year

blessings....Franco
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