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Old 10-05-2011, 04:52 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,026 posts, read 57,425,808 times
Reputation: 13129

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Another Brutal One due to La Nina

The AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team is predicting another brutally cold and snowy winter for a large part of the country, thanks in large part to La Niña... yet again.

AccuWeather.com Winter 2011-2012 Forecast: Another Brutal One (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55890/accuweathercom-winter-20112012.asp - broken link)

More graphs and details with link..

Reduced: 92% of original size [ 590 x 393 ] - Click to view full image



Reduced: 92% of original size [ 590 x 393 ] - Click to view full image



Reduced: 92% of original size [ 590 x 393 ] - Click to view full image



Reduced: 92% of original size [ 590 x 393 ] - Click to view full image
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Old 10-05-2011, 05:50 AM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
4,817 posts, read 9,858,385 times
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Thanks

As a weather man in North Dakota/Minnesota I am one of the few who is glad to see brutally cold in my area
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Old 10-05-2011, 08:06 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,100,749 times
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Cam this is no reflection on you…

However, what cracks me up every October when AccuWeather issues these “winter outlooks”… is that they really just forecast typical winter weather in each region of the USA (lol). Give a sixth grader a crash course in basic USA climatology and he/she would make the same map (lol):

It will be “stormy” in the PNW (lol) - yea, we would think that forecast might verify since the Gulf of Alaska has more storm activity/low pressure that anywhere on earth in the months of Dec – Feb (lol)….what a risky forecast for Florida to be “mild” this winter - what gave it away, the 2 million tourists on the beaches in Miami or Ft. Lauderdale, Sarasota…etc (lol)….the forecast of “snows” in the high elevation of the Intermountain West was a real shocker! (snow in the mountains who would have guessed?). Then the real comedy starts when they forecast “mild and dry” in the desert southwest – wow, I didn’t know Phoenix or Las Vegas was dry, the cactus confused me (lol)…or “worst of winters cold/snow” is forecasted for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes - OMG they get heavy snowy and bitter cold weather in Duluth and Buffalo in winter (lol), what gave it away the ave annual snowfall of 60 to 90 inches across the region or the average number subzero nights in Fargo (lo).

Good old AccuWeather -
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Old 10-05-2011, 08:37 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,026 posts, read 57,425,808 times
Reputation: 13129
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
what cracks me up every October when AccuWeather issues these “winter outlooks”… is that they really just forecast typical winter weather in each region of the USA (lol). Give a sixth grader a crash course in basic USA climatology and he/she would make the same map (lol):

It will be “stormy” in the PNW (lol) - -
LOL... somewhat agree, but as intelligent as you are you know there are lines to draw where you think the jet will dip and there are factors to include such as more or less precip.

So while it may seem like a "usual" winter senario the border may be different as far as how much south or north the cold / storms go.

I agree the maps are "amatuer" like (graphics are great though)

but Use the link to see the details such as where they think the above or below normal precip will be.

"Most of that snow is predicted to fall from December into January, making for an active start to the season for New York City and other big cities along the Interstate 95 corridor." I DO NOT AGREE

"Overall, precipitation is expected to be above normal throughout most of the Northeast from January into February. With the exception of northern parts of New York and New England, temperatures are forecast to average near normal for the winter season." AGREE

I dont think a 6th grader can do that.
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Old 10-05-2011, 08:44 AM
 
Location: Columbus, Ohio
1,709 posts, read 2,792,058 times
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Yeah, their maps look pretty simple, but I guess that's their style. It wouldn't be as easy to glance over the map (and don't get me started on how everything in the media these days needs to be packaged into glimpses and sound bites...) if they put in the subtleties that were in their explanations.
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Old 10-05-2011, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
22,254 posts, read 25,355,058 times
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AccuWeather is rubbish.
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Old 10-05-2011, 09:57 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: NYC
46,070 posts, read 45,078,047 times
Reputation: 14963
I prefer noaa:

Climate Prediction Center - seasonal Outlook

not very specific; but they know that their accuracy is limited; they just give probabilities and no soundbites.
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Old 10-05-2011, 06:48 PM
 
Location: Wellington and North of South
5,127 posts, read 7,162,961 times
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Looks like a pile of generalist dribble to me. Past forecasts for the UK at least seem to have been pretty pathetic, judging by reaction on at least one forum there.
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