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Steve D likes to think so. He's pretty accurate with his long range espeially because he doesnt use models, he uses science.
"An important observation has come in this morning that ties all my thoughts together for the early Spring pattern.
As I had to wait for the warming to develop in the lower stratosphere, we can now see the cooling of the stratosphere start at 70 MB. The stratosphere turning colder leads to collapse of the high latitude blocking scheme over Europe and the Pacific and enhances the progressive pattern over North America.
The stratospheric cooling influence that is now a true observation, not a model output, is a key point here. The combination of this stratospheric cooling with the MJO expected to move towards PHASE 2 now would lead to a very progressive, Pacific pattern setting up as we move towards February 20th.
This type of pattern leads to mild conditions across the United States. So once again, I expect this weekend to be cold and then we start to move towards this milder, progressive pattern that will lead to above normal temperatures for late February and March."
What is the key to doing those screen shots with the graphics? Anyway, it would be nice to see a meridonal flow setup for the US, but that just hasn't happened at all this winter.
What is the key to doing those screen shots with the graphics? Anyway, it would be nice to see a meridonal flow setup for the US, but that just hasn't happened at all this winter.
What you people in the East really need is a meridional flow setup that features a W ridge and an E trough. If you have a huge ridge in the East that doesn't do you much good when it comes to wintry weather, does it? Of course I know you aren't in Georgia or anything, and can get wintry weather even with a ridge in place, but my point is still valid.
Much of continental Europe (such as subzero °F nights in the Netherlands) has gotten colder temperatures than I've gotten this winter. Coldest we've gotten is exactly 0°F in late January. 5 nights in total have been below 10°F, all except one between Jan 15 and Jan 22.
Also, woke up to an inch (maybe a little less) of snow this morning!
No snow in NH, and the models are wrong again. Looks above average for temperatures for the rest of the month yet again. No surprises based on this blowtorch zonal flow pattern.
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