Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
There are a variety of scenarios that are put forth. Even though all the warming scenarios naturally predict overall warming there is a wide divergence of views on the intensity of the warming and how it would manifest itself. The only really sensible view in my opinion is a temperature increase throughout most of the world most marked in wintertime, as that is where the most variable temperatures both year-to-year and historically lie.
There are many views, that I believe are more honest, that predict that some regions will warm much faster than the global average, and others less warm or cooling.
Most scenarios predict the Arctic and continental areas will warm the most, and tropics the least. So, not so much expanding tropics, but contracting arctic climates. I think the Arctic has displayed the most warming in the last few decades, while many tropical areas have shown little or no warming.
Quote:
Even the most extreme CO2-influenced warming models (that are bogus in my view) feature regional variance, so it is a factor, but will Europe be colder in the wintertime? If you ask me, I'd say under global warming, Europe would most likely be warmer in winter.
I find colder European winters in a warming world rather hard to believe, too. Maybe a regional variance might make Europe's winters warm less than most of the world, but enough to make to make its winters colder? I doubt it.
Most scenarios predict the Arctic and continental areas will warm the most, and tropics the least. So, not so much expanding tropics, but contracting arctic climates. I think the Arctic has displayed the most warming in the last few decades, while many tropical areas have shown little or no warming.
Well from what I've been reading, contracting arctic climates is a result of expanding tropics. As tropics grow, it pushes the subtropical and other zones farther. As a result, you will see the poles get warmer.
This is what I have a hard time grasping. That the climates would just change so drastically.
Well from what I've been reading, contracting arctic climates is a result of expanding tropics. As tropics grow, it pushes the subtropical and other zones farther. As a result, you will see the poles get warmer.
This is what I have a hard time grasping. That the climates would just change so drastically.
I don't think the tropics will grow much.. it's the temperate climates that will grow - subarctic, continental and subtropical mostly will grow. According to that website, Toronto will become Humid Subtropical and Vancouver will become fully Mediterranean by 2100.. that's a huge difference!!
It's partly a matter of definition of subtropical (Under Koppen's definition, true tropics are no colder than an 18C average in any month of the year) but it's interesting that on the map in the United States the only real change in the expansion of the tropics is in a few flecks of southern Florida barely more than it is now; It doesn't really look like the Gulf coast is going to get tropical, but stay merely subtropical. Hmm... since winter temperatures still won't average 18C, does it mean that it'll still get cold snaps in winter?
The big shift as everyone here is noting from the map, seems to be the rise and takeover of the four-season climes by the Mediterranean and humid subtropics! Western Europe will be Mediterranean and Eastern Europe humid subtropical... ditto for Western and Eastern North America.
Another thing is, if I'm reading it correctly, why does the prediction show a couple small spots of "Mediterranean" climate popping up and then disappearing over the years in Texas? The same shows up in northern India for some reason too, which is odd?
Southern Ontario will become Cfa (humid subtropical) by 2100.. that will be something!!
It's not a huge stretch for me to imagine southern Ontario as sub-tropical if Missouri and Kentucky have ''subtropical'' areas in the Koppen system. Windsor ( continental ) isn't all that climatically distant from St. Louis ( subtropical ).
I find colder European winters in a warming world rather hard to believe, too. Maybe a regional variance might make Europe's winters warm less than most of the world, but enough to make to make its winters colder? I doubt it.
The reasoning is that with a smaller temperature difference between tropics and Arctic there'd be a weaker Atlantic influence, opening the door to easterlies off the frozen continent. If you look in the record books for recent winters this past decade or so you'd find as much evidence to support that theory as you would to discredit it - either way, it seems interesting and unpredictable weather is here to stay!
Another thing is, if I'm reading it correctly, why does the prediction show a couple small spots of "Mediterranean" climate popping up and then disappearing over the years in Texas? The same shows up in northern India for some reason too, which is odd?
I observed that as well.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
