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I've noticed that my current method for forecasting gives very constant weather. In fact, the temperatures are even more constant than the oceanic city I live in! Starting January 1st, the formula I use to create these forecasts will change to one that allows for more variation.
What is your method like? I usually look at a similar real-life climate and make adjustments to match my averages. Guess it would be more interesting with a devised formula but I just find it hard without a realistic blueprint.
I do something similar. I average the temperatures of 5 cities: Boston, New York, Minneapolis, Charlotte, and Memphis. Usually, if one of the five cities is very cold or very hot, the other four aren't (except Boston and New York which kind of move as a block). This draws temperatures back to the mean and creates for a very unrealistically mild climate. No Eastern US city would have as little day to day variation as the place I've invented does. To remedy this, I'm going to exaggerate cold snaps and heat waves. I just have to figure out by how much of a factor. I don't want to overdo it to the point where it's snowing in summer, but more variation than I currently have would be nice. If you look back at my forecasts you'll see how constant they are...
I do something similar. I average the temperatures of 5 cities: Boston, New York, Minneapolis, Charlotte, and Memphis. Usually, if one of the five cities is very cold or very hot, the other four aren't (except Boston and New York which kind of move as a block). This draws temperatures back to the mean and creates for a very unrealistically mild climate. No Eastern US city would have as little day to day variation as the place I've invented does. To remedy this, I'm going to exaggerate cold snaps and heat waves. I just have to figure out by how much of a factor. I don't want to overdo it to the point where it's snowing in summer, but more variation than I currently have would be nice. If you look back at my forecasts you'll see how constant they are...
12/30: -38/-42 C ... clear, no wind
12/31: -41/-45 C ... clear, no wind
1/1: -40/-47 C ... partly cloudy, no wind
1/2: -31/-40 C ... 10 inches (254 mm) of snow, 20 mph gusts
1/3: -35/-39 C ... flurries, clearing up, 5-10 mph becoming calm
1/4: -39/-46 C ... clear, no wind
1/5: -46/-52 C ... clear, no wind
@ilovemycomputer90: Thanks. I think my factor is going to be 1.5. I'll try that out for a while and if that doesn't work I'll have to adjust it.
What I mean by factor is this: if the average daily temperature for a given day is 32 degrees and the average daily temperature for the five cities comes to 36 degrees, the daily temperature for my location will be 38 degrees. I am multiplying the distance between the actual temperature and the mean by a factor of 1.5. (36 - 32)*1.5 + 32 = 38. Everything else (dtr, precipitation/sunshine) will remain the same.
Forecast for Fairview:
January 1: 39/28 partly cloudy
January 2: 43/32 partly cloudy
January 3: 46/34 rainy
January 4: 46/27 rainy/snowy
January 5: 32/18 sunny
January 6: 30/18 sunny
Warmer than average start to the year until a cold front comes through on Sunday afternoon/evening.
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