Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
"The climate models suggest by November we are in a true El Nino pattern with storms coming in through California and the Southwest"
"SOI values say the El Nino is coming on strong. 6 months from now we are going to wish for the heat!"
Strong El Nino is not always good for cold and snow lovers but the part about the California storms is interesting because that would mean theres more a chance the storm exits southeast and moves up the coast (if NAO is negative)
Oooh....That sort of pattern can bring some good stuff to the whole country. Now all we need is the -AO to cooperate and then the storms can cross the southern tier, go up the coast, and have the cold air injected into them. If the temperatures even vaguely resemble some of the CFS forecasts I've seen (a strong -AO), then a strong subtropical jet stream would make for a supercharged winter. Abundant cold and abundant moisture.
People think 2011 was a cold and snowy winter, but that lasted for just 2.5 months for most of the country, whereas all the models I've seen have the cold lasting for the full duration in 2013, or at least no flip to warmth. It may also surprise many people that the subtropical jet was weak in 2011, and although there was plenty enough moisture to make a snowy winter pretty much everywhere, the winter period actually was drier than normal. Now imagine what would occur in that same scenario, but with more extreme and persistent cold and a much more active subtropical jet.
Oooh....That sort of pattern can bring some good stuff to the whole country. Now all we need is the -AO to cooperate and then the storms can cross the southern tier, go up the coast, and have the cold air injected into them. If the temperatures even vaguely resemble some of the CFS forecasts I've seen (a strong -AO), then a strong subtropical jet stream would make for a supercharged winter. Abundant cold and abundant moisture.
People think 2011 was a cold and snowy winter, but that lasted for just 2.5 months for most of the country, whereas all the models I've seen have the cold lasting for the full duration in 2013, or at least no flip to warmth. It may also surprise many people that the subtropical jet was weak in 2011, and although there was plenty enough moisture to make a snowy winter pretty much everywhere, the winter period actually was drier than normal. Now imagine what would occur in that same scenario, but with more extreme and persistent cold and a much more active subtropical jet.
Exactly. And hey..I always enjoy knowing at least the region someone is posting here to try to relate to what they experienced. Are you in the East? Did you have a good winter in 11? It's fun if we can share stories, you know?
I had good winter in 2010-11. down in houston we had 3 days below freezing and ice every where. Few snowflakes fell but it was great. I hope this winter surprises us all.
We had the oddest winter, western side of VIRGINIA. It seemed to bypass us and go directly into Spring..
it was a long Spring in slow stages that was a dream come true.. I finally got to see the flowers bloom, and they lingered.. life slowed down. Spring in slo-mo. It was THE BEST!!
Now our weather has just stepped away from a few weeks in Hades.. what will our winter be like?
Pretty much the whole continent had a better-than-usual winter in 2011. That included my location in the Eastern Interior, and also that means that such a pattern as I've outlined would be good for me too. I'll just leave you all hanging with my current stated location on the Laurentian craton. Despite the interior vs. coast difference the same sort of weather patterns (negative AO for one) bring good stuff to both of us. However, I'd love to get a repeat of my all-time favorite pattern, the Pan-American Interior Trough (early February 2011 is the only instance of that I've seen so far), which gives the interior the ultimate cold, snow, and winter experience, whereas that sort of pattern often gives both coasts the shaft, leaving you coasters with rain or a mix. However, with an even bigger trough I'm sure the storms can be nudged further offshore and get you in on the action as well .
For an example of that sort of upper-level pattern where there's a huge trough centered in the interior with cold and storms everywhere, see this chart from February 2, illustrating the Groundhog Day Blizzard (the low near Chicago) and the storm right on its heels (in New Mexico) which produced the extraordinary cold and snow in the region centered around West Texas/New Mexico. This chart from February 7 is an example of the fully-matured pattern I was talking about.
Another perspective on that pattern sort of jumped out at me when I looked at those maps: if you notice the polar vortex (the low in the far north), the Interior Trough pattern almost looks like it's a manifestation of the polar vortex "assimilating" most of the continent . It looks fully integrated, to put it another way.
I looked back at the upper-level charts through the winter of 2002 (the earliest available on that website), and I couldn't find that degree of assimilation at any point. Although bigger troughs had been there, none of them came close to the breadth and the sheer amount of integration with the polar vortex that took place in February 2011, or put another way 2011 was the most polar-like pattern in the whole series of maps. The only time in the period of record that comes close is Christmas 2004, but even then it was less connected with the polar features and the polar vortex wasn't as cold or strong as in 2011. It's possible and even likely that there has been assimilation like this before 2002, but judging from the rarity of the cold and the unusual nature of the fast-paced storminess, my guess would be that you'd have to go back to at least the 1910's, excluding perhaps some incidents in the 1960's or 70's.
If the late June 2012 heat wave is a preview of what a warmer climate would be like, this is a preview of what a cooler climate would be like. Perhaps patterns like February 2011 become normal in colder climates until we reach a full glacial state, and then the manifestation of that is the polar vortex assimilating the mid-latitude patterns.
I didn't read the post from #1...
so winter from Virginia to New York state will be... what?
Really cold, snowy, bad-bad weather...or la-de-da mild?
I'm have not and will not issue any forecasts at this juncture, but indicators as of now point towards cold and probably snowy too.
All of the CFS and JMA output has showed cold over the East with the core of very cold temperatures located in the interior, somewhere in the Kentucky-to-Kansas general area depending on which model run you look at. The East Coast is rather uniform, in that the temperature departures go from interior to coast, not from north to south. The cold that's being shown centered over the interior gives way to moderate cold over the coast, something like, for example, a departure from normal of -3F for the coast and -6F for the interior. If there is to be a cold and snowy pattern I think that's how it will set up.
"La-de-da mild" seems unlikely to me, just because worldwide 2012 was quite a cold winter and just about all of North America just happened to receive the most rotten luck imaginable* for 5 straight months. If the worldwide trend continues into 2013, and I believe the weather and climate changes I outlined previously will continue and eventually dominate, then it seems unlikely that North America will receive such a "dice roll" again.
Any sort of mild winter for you looks to me like the least likely scenario, but I don't discount the possibility. However, my thinking is that if you do receive a warm winter, then it won't be "la-de-da", as in warm/dry/sunny/calm, but rather warm/wet/stormy.
That's just my thinking and I haven't even issued a formal forecast, and I might not ever issue one. I'd advise you to look at all the other forecasts and do some research yourself if you have the talent for it.
I didn't read the post from #1...
so winter from Virginia to New York state will be... what?
Really cold, snowy, bad-bad weather...or la-de-da mild?
All we can do at this point is go over different type of senarios and mention was "has" happened during those senarios. We can go over the "chances" and the "combinations" but There's no way anyone should or could tell us what this winter will "be" like now, in July. :-) I wish we could. It actually makes it more fun "trying" to figure it out.
No, I have no talent for following "REAL" weather patterns.. other than turning on
the weather channel.. (okay, laugh) I read the Farmers Almanac if I have to make plans up ahead.
I don't have the savvy for it.. you are my magic 8 ball.
Thanks so much for your input.. Looks like my move up north will give me all the pains that ought to be
expected.. (my leg [old injury] seems to be an indicator for upcoming storms.. up to three days in advance).
looks to me like the winter is going to be slightly warmer and wetter. I think in the northeast in the wetter is a bigger story since the warmth will be minimal, should have some big snow storms... I think the south will have a warm dreary winter but nothing like the warmth from this past winter. Midwest will be more typical and the west and northwest should be cool like last year but drier.
I think the big wildcard for 2012 is the late fall if temps drop more then expected winter could end up being much snowier and colder then I think.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
and ice every where. Few snowflakes fell but it was great. I hope this winter surprises us all.
in virginia>> the western side
. It looks fully integrated, to put it another way.
