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The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might be colder-than-normal December through February, according to NOAA’s annual Winter Outlook announced today from the agency’s new Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md.
Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Niño, expected to have developed by now, makes this year’s winter outlook less certain than previous years.
“This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific.”
When El Niño is present, warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn influence the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and United States. This climate pattern gives seasonal forecasters confidence in how the U.S. winter will unfold. An El Niño watch remains in effect because there’s still a window for it to emerge.
Other climate factors can influence winter weather across the country. Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, a prominent climate pattern, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the winter outlook in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.
Areas ravaged by extreme drought over the past year are unlikely to see much relief from drought conditions this winter.
In the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:
Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.
Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.
Dryer-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.
Dryer-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.
The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning these areas have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
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The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter,
This makes me want to hurl. The Rockies have been so warm, for so long, but Mother Nature doesn't care, does she? We haven't had a normal or below normal temperature winter in ages.
The NOAA winter forecast is always more accurate because it is so vague, but it looks like a done deal for the west.
The NOAA winter forecast is always more accurate because it is so vague, but it looks like a done deal for the west.
Meh. Not a done deal by any means. The southern tier looked like it was already cooked at this point in 2010, but 2010-11 proved to be a cold winter in that very same region, with Oklahoma receiving a record pounding in February. I'm not saying it won't be warm in the West - it might very well turn out that way, but in my experience a warm forecast from NOAA doesn't close any kind of deal.
The GFS looks mostly blow torch until very late in the month and the first week of November. Most of the country will see warmer than average temperatures for the rest of the month.
Meh. Not a done deal by any means. The southern tier looked like it was already cooked at this point in 2010, but 2010-11 proved to be a cold winter in that very same region, with Oklahoma receiving a record pounding in February. I'm not saying it won't be warm in the West - it might very well turn out that way, but in my experience a warm forecast from NOAA doesn't close any kind of deal.
Oh, it will be. Very warm, that is. I know this is not scientific, but we are punchy and paranoid out here because of the seemingly endless quarters and seasons of above and much above normal temperatures. Our lakes have dried up, the National Forests are disappearing and we have suffered through a spring and summer that have been unprecedented in heat and drought. Enough is enough, but what can you do?
Since there is more chances of Neutral now then El Nino... Here's A look at the result of the most neutral winters. Ski resorts in the East could do very well this year.
Temperature
Precipitation
Take notice of the above-normal precipitation through the Appalachians. This can be an interesting winter for this area right into the Northeast.
Things have been great in SE US since AUG, we also had a cool June. Looks like most indications are we are going to have a wet winter with some cool periods so maybe some early snow. In all I think the SE US got the best of the weather for 2012, going into winter I don't see that changing. I can't feel to bad about the western US or NE, you guys have missed a lot of the heat and drought in prior years.
"We appear to have a VERY DIFFERENT winter on the way compared to last.
Last winter was exceptionally mild and snow-less. There were only 10 days with an inch or more of snow on the ground the entire snow season--- 43 days is normal. And the Dec-Feb winter period produced the 9th warmest temps of any winter in 142 years of records here averaging an impressive 6.4-deg above normal: 32.4-deg versus a normal of 26.4-deg.
This winter may be far more conventional---and even possibly snowier than the long term average if our in-house statistical work pans our. NOAA has released its official winter outlook confirming the demise of the notion that an El Nino is a "shoe-in" this winter. It appears an El Nino--or certainly a strong El Nino--may not be in the cards.
The El Nino evolution process has stalled if not reversed in the equatorial Pacific. Several of the most trustworthy coupled ocean/atmosphere seasonal computer forecast models, including NOAA's CFS model, have all but abandoned the notion of an El Nino--and they've certainly abandoned the notion of a "moderate" or "strong" El Nino, as we've reported here and on our blog in recent weeks. This effectively nixes the notion of an El Nino-driven milder than normal winter in terms of temperature here in Chicago and the Midwest.
We've run local temp & snowfall stats for 21 ENSO neutral cold seasons since 1950---these so-call "neutral" seasons are the ones which occur between El Ninos and La Ninas--- to discern local trends in such periods. What comes of this is that slightly more than half of ENSO neutral winters--52% of them--end up colder than the long term average. But the snowy winter numbers are more impressive. 14 of the 21 snow seasons in ENSO neutral years have been snowier than the long term average--that's 67% of them.
This suggests we could have a much different cold season on the way--in terms of both temp and snowfall---than last year. This may well end up a colder and snowier cold season than last. And that's not even taking into account the sudden appearance of high latitude "Greenland-type" blocking which has started showing up from time to time in recent months---another development that, were it to continue, would argue for a colder and potentially snowier winter. There's nothing carved in stone or certain about ANY seasonal outlook.
There are many variables which impact seasonal weather which are NOT completely understood. So weigh my observations with that in mind. But history HAS been known to be a bell-weather of potential seasonal weather trends and this will be an interesting one to monitor. Here's a link to NOAA's winter outlook."
"I did read the NOAA story about the El Nino challenge for this winter. I actually agree with the story that the El Nino is having a hard time coming about and that we may face more neutral conditions going through winter. If that were to happen, I think the result will be snow for the Northeast and even some snow in the Midwest. I will be doing my winter forecast soon and will be factoring in the ENSO conditions"
"I did read the NOAA story about the El Nino challenge for this winter. I actually agree with the story that the El Nino is having a hard time coming about and that we may face more neutral conditions going through winter. If that were to happen, I think the result will be snow for the Northeast and even some snow in the Midwest. I will be doing my winter forecast soon and will be factoring in the ENSO conditions"
I would always use caution when it comes to old Henry and snow in the Northeast - lol.
He and the boys wait for 9 months in their State College station for winter weather, and he pins the hope of every winter on a pattern that favors snow in and close to PA. So a word to the wise....
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Tom Skilling Winter Thoughts
