Winter 2012-13 Thread (measurable, snow, warm, ice)

[Cambium]

Maybe Dan can help here. I'm looking for a technical reason for this. Maybe someone knows why.

850winds coming from the north on the right side of appalacians and coming from the south on the left side of Apps. Thats pretty interesting to see

[ilovemycomputer90]

Originally Posted by owenc

Well, they were no colder than me last night.

Don't think its worthwhile posting a chart for that, it isn't exactly ice cold is it now.

Last time I checked this was a weather forum, so why not post a chart?

[Mac15]

I don't mind the charts being posted, its the exaggeration that annoys me.

[ilovemycomputer90]

Originally Posted by owenc

I don't mind the charts being posted, its the exaggeration that annoys me.

There was no exaggeration. He was posting about the current conditions.

[Cosmicstargoat]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Maybe Dan can help here. I'm looking for a technical reason for this. Maybe someone knows why.

850winds coming from the north on the right side of appalacians and coming from the south on the left side of Apps. Thats pretty interesting to see

Well, I left a response, but since you have me on Ignore, you won't see it.

[snowchaser2002]

Originally Posted by Gnutella

I'm tired of this ****! Cool off already!

This so much! on my weather.com webpage I have it set to where it compares last years temps and we are even warmer than last year usually day to day...I know some people are throwing the towel in for the whole winter and last year spooked so many of us...but I am keeping my fingers crossed I can get to see a few good snows in the mid atlantic this year.

[Kamsack]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Maybe Dan can help here. I'm looking for a technical reason for this. Maybe someone knows why.

850winds coming from the north on the right side of appalacians and coming from the south on the left side of Apps. Thats pretty interesting to see

Just looking at that map showing 850 mb winds I would presume the easy answer is that the 850 mb ridge is right over E NY to NYC as you are getting northerly flow to the east and return south-southeast flow to the west.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by DaninEGF

Just looking at that map showing 850 mb winds I would presume the easy answer is that the 850 mb ridge is right over E NY to NYC as you are getting northerly flow to the east and return south-southeast flow to the west.

That was my first obvious thought but the tight return flow was fooling me thinking the mountains had part in something. Doesnt the clockwise flow have a wider range/circumference? I dont think I ever saw a narrow area like that. Thanks for the reply.

[NorthernMoose]

As we get closer to the weekend the local NWS is getting more info together on the approaching storm system. Previously I think it was Cambium who mentioned something about the Northern and Southern Jets merging to set up a good chance for storms to track on. Here is the latest discussion for Sunday and Monday when this is to take shape.



SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST...FOR THOSE WISHING FOR...AND AGAINST...ACCUMULATING SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CREATING A LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CREATING A MEAN TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SO.....THE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW OF EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW WILL TRACK.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY AS A STRONG JET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTENSIFIES...BEGINNING TO CHANGE OUR ZONAL FLOW INTO MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH APPEARS TO MERGE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CREATING A DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAKING FOR A MORE ELONGATED...NOT AS DEEP/STRONG SYSTEM...DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH THIS DECREASED WAA...MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING WITH AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR SUNDAY IN NORTHWESTERN LOWER...SO I WILL BE TRENDING ALL SNOW FURTHER SOUTH IN THE GRIDS BUT STILL LEAVE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NORTHEASTERN LOWER AND OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR BEGINS TO SEEP IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT I WILL LEAVE CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ADDING ONTO ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by NorthernMoose

Previously I think it was Cambium who mentioned something about the Northern and Southern Jets merging to set up a good chance for storms to track on.

THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH APPEARS TO MERGE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION....

Yup, models showed this from over a week ago, as always we dont know strength, track, and precip amounts until we get closer. This is the beginning of a bunch of storms next couple weeks. And each time the storms go through the air behind it drops colder and colder air.

In a few weeks all this warmth we're having will just be a memory for most. Exciting times area ahead...and snowy.