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GFS showing a sharp front / trough coming in the long range around the 20th. 850mb temps into the single digits in New England and dewpoints into the 40s. Minimum temps showing 40s but I dont buy GFS minimums in long range
65 F/18 C at 11:05PM with a forecast low of 60 F/16 C...coolest night in some time. Going to try to sleep with the window open and fan on. Looks like 68-70 F/20-21 C lows will be back on the horizon so I guess I should cherish this night.
This heat threat is dangerous and is serious. Why? The heat index and these 500 MB heights
The above map is for next Thursday. Note two key points. One, at 500 MB the heart of the ridge will be right over the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area. Should this transpire, you have air rapidly sinking over the region. The sinking air will help to suppress thunderstorm development for the most part but also help to enhance surface temperatures as well. Two, the surface high pressure system is locked in off the coast, which means winds at the surface up through 850 MB will be from the southwest, transporting a tropical air mass from the Gulf of Mexico. So why is this dangerous?
Well, when we look at the combined 850 MB temperatures, dew points likely into the lower to mid 70′s, and the sinking air over the region; high temperatures on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will easily break 90 degrees. My concern is that surface temperatures likely are going to range 95 to 100 degree especially in urban locations. These temperatures combined with high levels of humidity will easily support a heat index over 100 degrees next week.
I strongly advocate to prepare for this heat wave. Have plenty of water available. If possible delay out door activities or at least set aside plenty of breaks in a cool environment. Further, use caution with young children and the elderly in this heat.
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