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Old 04-30-2012, 06:23 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
1,793 posts, read 2,842,946 times
Reputation: 1347

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Does anyone actually rely on Accuweather for forecasts after they botched the winter of 2012 so badly? I was on Accuweather's website reading their hurricane predictions and it suddenly hit me, why am i even reading their forecasts? Does anyone actually take them seriously anymore? I read the blogs of some local amateur forecasters, and they are not perfect but they certainly come closer than Accuweather's highly-paid crew. The worst is that not only did they mess up the forecast so badly, but I do not recall them coming out and admitting that they botched it and offered an explanation as to why the winter turned out the way it did. I know from the local blogs that it was because of a lack of a blocking pattern in the North Atlantic, but i do not recall Accuweather admitting they were way off and spending much time explaining about the North Atlantic Oscillation in their blogs.

I would be interested to see if their ratings have gone down significantly in recent months. I am not sure if they are publicly traded, but i might do some research to see if they have a ticker symbol and if their stock price has taken a beating.
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Old 04-30-2012, 06:41 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,964 posts, read 57,397,867 times
Reputation: 13109
Maybe this is how they do it.

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Old 04-30-2012, 06:52 AM
 
Location: Melbourne AUS
1,156 posts, read 1,648,036 times
Reputation: 827
Inaccuweather is a joke, just like any other site that is not of the official meteorology agency for each country concerned. Innaccuweather, wunderground etc seem to pull their own forecasts out of a hat.
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Old 04-30-2012, 07:30 AM
 
Location: São Paulo
66 posts, read 92,715 times
Reputation: 72
At least here in Brazil, seeing the 25-day forecast and nothing was pretty much the same... And until sometime ago, Rio's historic average was 0°F in all months, haha!
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Old 04-30-2012, 07:45 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,593 posts, read 6,830,775 times
Reputation: 2412
Their local forecasts are among the worst of the bunch, mostly past 5 days, though. The 25-day forecast has no utility at all from what I've seen; one would probably have better luck using verbatim GFS model data past 300 hours out than ACW's 25-day forecast. That said they often document in their news articles weather events throughout the world that few other outlets cover, and their long-range pattern and other forecasts are competitive with the other forecasting services (in terms of accuracy).

So, their local forecasts are pretty much bunk, but they do document "weather news" rather well, and they do have talent on board with their long-range forecasting.

I agree that they shouldn't try to cover up their mistakes, and they should go more in-depth with the weather patterns, and explaining what went right or wrong. This is a problem with deterministic long-range forecasts in general, which often just declare something like it's out of a hat, without explaining the confidence levels, and all the factors that would have to come together for it to verify, and what could go wrong/if it does go wrong what could happen, as they should explain. I admit that my own Laurentian winter forecast was dead wrong, as was many others. However my own prediction and Geoff Sharp's prediction of a cold winter on a hemispheric scale verified quite nicely. Europe had a cold winter and so did China (the coldest in 27 years in fact). Alaska also had one of the coldest winters since settlement, and even the southern hemisphere had a cold winter (though this was in N.H. summer). North America ex-Alaska just had really rotten luck. It's the only place in the world that has had a constant heat bubble on it since November, but I admit that my own forecast was wrong, which is more than some others do.
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Old 04-30-2012, 08:12 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
1,793 posts, read 2,842,946 times
Reputation: 1347
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Maybe this is how they do it.
Hahaha possibly the best post i have seen on this forum.
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Old 04-30-2012, 08:46 AM
 
Location: Perth, Western Australia
3,133 posts, read 3,799,017 times
Reputation: 2272
I took notice of the Accuweather 2011-12 winter forecast as I was in North America last December, kind of surprises me how they word the forecasts as if their predictions are a done deal. Most of these forecasts whether by a private company or government should be taken with a grain of salt, they're not all that accurate generally.

The seasonal outlooks we get here from the Bureau of Meteorology vary in confidence depending on the region thankfully they point out these details to us.
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Old 04-30-2012, 11:18 AM
 
Location: Broward County, FL
16,201 posts, read 9,180,717 times
Reputation: 3530
Accuweather is indeed a joke....wunderground used to be good because they used to get their forecasts straight from NWS/NOAA but now it just seems like they just randomly pull numbers out of their ass..
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Old 04-30-2012, 12:04 PM
 
121 posts, read 254,376 times
Reputation: 116
So, then which is the most accurate weather forecast source as of now?
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Old 04-30-2012, 12:17 PM
 
Location: Buxton, England
7,023 posts, read 9,521,180 times
Reputation: 3594
Noah. He knew that 40-day rainstorm was going to happen well in advance, hence he started on the Ark long before. Oh hang on, I meant NOAA.

Here in the UK the metoffice are probably the most accurate in a short term sense.
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