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I often suspected the BBC long-range forecasts used random number generators but they didn't need to make it this obvious...we haven't even had a 15C difference between the absolute high and low over the entire month so far never mind a 15C margin of error for the high on one day If we get a 13C high it would probably be the coldest day at this time of year for hundreds of years, a bit of a shock to the system after getting 32C on a northerly.
I don't understand these forecasts. daytime high is predicted to be anywhere from 13-28°C?
Why does Thurs-Sat each have 4 numbers instead of 2?
For days 1-5 they give a straightforward forecast, but days 6-10 they haven't got a clue so hedge their bets by giving a range of where they think the highs/lows will be (to give an idea of how stupid that day with a high between 13 and 28 is, the range between the lowest high and highest high in my part of London all month so far is only 17.0 - 23.0 - we just don't get temperature fluctuations like that).
The numbers are clearly not checked by a human before they put them on the site - before when they only gave forecasts up to day 5 I've seen them put something really implausibly cold like -12C as the low on day 5 during winter cold spells which would inevitably later get downgraded to something more realistic.
For days 1-5 they give a straightforward forecast, but days 6-10 they haven't got a clue so hedge their bets by giving a range of where they think the highs/lows will be (to give an idea of how stupid that day with a high between 13 and 28 is, the range between the lowest high and highest high in my part of London all month so far is only 17.0 - 23.0 - we just don't get temperature fluctuations like that).
Well at least the forecast won't be wrong.
For comparison, our range has been 29°C - 36°C for highs (with more clustering on the lower side, mean has been 31.7°C) and 12 - 21°C for lows.
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The numbers are clearly not checked by a human before they put them on the site - before when they only gave forecasts up to day 5 I've seen them put something really implausibly cold like -12C as the low on day 5 during winter cold spells which would inevitably later get downgraded to something more realistic.
I'd assume a night low of 9°C is implausible as well.
For comparison, our range has been 29°C - 36°C for highs (with more clustering on the lower side, mean has been 31.7°C) and 12 - 21°C for lows.
I'd assume a night low of 9°C is implausible as well.
Your coolest day this month was still 29C?! I'm sure that's nothing exceptional for you (isn't your average high around that?) but if we got that here I'd get sick of it pretty soon. We quite possibly might end the month (or even the summer) without having seen 29C at all. Our lows have been between 10 and 16 (which average out dead on normal as opposed to the highs, which have been 3C below), so not so different to where you are.
Actually July 2011 had four nights get down to 9C in Hampstead, though to get that in central London or at Heathrow would be stretching the probability a bit far.
July's average maximum temperature is set to be the lowest since my records began here in Buxton, going by the latest GFS projection. Seems we'll fail to even reach or beat the average high of 16.5°C recorded in July 2007. This July has also been cloudier and wetter, so easily a contender for worst July on record.
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If we get a 13C high it would probably be the coldest day at this time of year for hundreds of years, a bit of a shock to the system after getting 32C on a northerly
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I'm sure that's nothing exceptional for you (isn't your average high around that?) but if we got that here I'd get sick of it pretty soon. We quite possibly might end the month (or even the summer) without having seen 29C at all. Our lows have been between 10 and 16 (which average out dead on normal as opposed to the highs, which have been 3C below), so not so different to where you are.
