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Old 07-12-2012, 08:45 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
77,074 posts, read 62,715,713 times
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I hope the link survives in the future. Story, picture, and video with it. I personally like this story because it has both sides in it. This is the way it should be done imo.

NOAA releases comprehensive 2011 State of the Climate report | Earth | EarthSky

Tid Bit from it...

-------------------
Major cooling factor globally in 2011 was La Nina. At the same time, the report identified “human fingerprints” in more than two dozen climate indicators.

On Tuesday, July 10, 2012, NOAA released the 2011 State of the Climate report. This report is a peer reviewed paper that was compiled by 378 scientists from 48 countries around the world. This report looks at the extreme weather events that occurred in 2011. It also analyzes global climate indicators and monitoring stations and instruments used on land, sea, ice, and sky. The report says that 2011 was the coolest year on record since 2008, but it remained above the 30-year average (1981-2010). La Nina – the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation – was the major cooling factor, globally, in 2011. At the same time, the influence of human-caused global warming on the climate system continues to grow. The report identified “human fingerprints” in more than two dozen climate indicators examined by this international research team — from air temperatures to ocean acidity. More specifics of the report below.

According to NOAA, La Niña played a major role in the crazy weather events that occurred in 2011, such as the violent tornado outbreaks in the United States, severe droughts in southern United States, northern Mexico, and East Africa, and one of the worst summer heat waves in central and southern Europe since 2003.

At the same time, NOAA’s 2011 State of the Climate report also acknowledges that Arctic ice is melting, greenhouse gases are increasing, and temperature extremes are increasing. Scientists are always unwilling to tie specific weather events to global warming. But as 2012 has progressed, we’ve seen more scientists willing to suggest that some of what we’ve experienced in recent months and years looks like what climate models suggest will happen in a warming world.
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Old 07-12-2012, 02:09 PM
 
Location: Wellington and North of South
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Fancy that - after a long La Nina. 2011 was also in fact the warmest full La Nina year yet recorded.
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Old 07-12-2012, 02:37 PM
 
Location: Upstate, South Carolina
356 posts, read 628,396 times
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I like the story and your thoughts, but your headline is bit misleading (making a true statement can still distort the reality of the situation) reminds me of the Drudge report.

I've grown found of reading your posts which are always accurate and interesting when you get past the initial head fake.
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Old 07-12-2012, 02:48 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
77,074 posts, read 62,715,713 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scme5 View Post
I like the story and your thoughts, but your headline is bit misleading (making a true statement can still distort the reality of the situation) reminds me of the Drudge report.

I've grown found of reading your posts which are always accurate and interesting when you get past the initial head fake.
lol. Thanks I appreciate that. The headline was part of the report and true so thought I use it to combat the brainwashing throughts out there. . :-) I'll try to find more subtle headlines next time.
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Old 07-12-2012, 04:07 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,593 posts, read 7,240,218 times
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Well, it was the coolest globally since 2008, and it was in the text of the report, so I don't think it's misleading. As for La Nina, I wouldn't pay much attention to it. It has an influence by virtue of the large ENSO area, but the rest of the world has greater impacts. It's also worth noting that 2012 so far hasn't been any warmer than 2011 at this point in the year* despite the vanishing La Nina, but I doubt we'll hear any musings from RWood in 2013 about how cool it is worldwide despite the El Nino.

*My source for this is the UAH dataset, the most solid and reliable one in my view. Although I imagine similar trends were observed in the other global temperature datasets, I just want to be precise about what I've been looking at.
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Old 07-12-2012, 05:13 PM
 
Location: Wellington and North of South
5,127 posts, read 7,671,829 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
Well, it was the coolest globally since 2008, and it was in the text of the report, so I don't think it's misleading. As for La Nina, I wouldn't pay much attention to it. It has an influence by virtue of the large ENSO area, but the rest of the world has greater impacts. It's also worth noting that 2012 so far hasn't been any warmer than 2011 at this point in the year* despite the vanishing La Nina, but I doubt we'll hear any musings from RWood in 2013 about how cool it is worldwide despite the El Nino.

*My source for this is the UAH dataset, the most solid and reliable one in my view. Although I imagine similar trends were observed in the other global temperature datasets, I just want to be precise about what I've been looking at.
You are underestimating the La Nina impact (which doesn't disappear instantly once the anomaly threshold is no longer reached, either). As for the rest, I'm not interested in getting into a discussion - the planet will speak for itself.
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Old 07-12-2012, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Upstate, South Carolina
356 posts, read 628,396 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
lol. Thanks I appreciate that. The headline was part of the report and true so thought I use it to combat the brainwashing throughts out there. . :-) I'll try to find more subtle headlines next time.

Someone needs to go against the grain... Maybe I'm off but I take most of your headlines as having a bit of sarcasm in them anyway. This audience should be smart enough to read the data you give without prejudice anyway. BTW high temp today in upstate SC didn't break 80 thought you might like to know that, let me know if anyone in the media reports a high 9 degrees under average!
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Old 07-12-2012, 07:00 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,593 posts, read 7,240,218 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RWood View Post
You are underestimating the La Nina impact (which doesn't disappear instantly once the anomaly threshold is no longer reached, either).
The impact on global temperature due to the La Nina itself (i.e. that big cold pool in the equatorial Pacific) pretty much disappears once the ENSO becomes neutral.
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Old 07-12-2012, 08:56 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
77,074 posts, read 62,715,713 times
Reputation: 14259
Quote:
Originally Posted by scme5 View Post
Someone needs to go against the grain... Maybe I'm off but I take most of your headlines as having a bit of sarcasm in them anyway. This audience should be smart enough to read the data you give without prejudice anyway. BTW high temp today in upstate SC didn't break 80 thought you might like to know that, let me know if anyone in the media reports a high 9 degrees under average!
SC too?? I did see Releigh NC numbers which was surprising to me. I understand more highs are broken then low, yada yada but I'm flaborgasted that we need to do the work ourselves to find that there are places that have been below normal for the highs or low. Its like if we dont do the work, we'll think there's only warming happening and everyone is above normal! Thats so iritating. Thanks for making me aware.

RALEIGH NC
Today:
MAXIMUM 83 -7
MINIMUM 69 -1
AVERAGE 76 -4

Yesterday:
MAXIMUM 80 -10
MINIMUM 68 -2
AVERAGE 74 -6
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Old 07-12-2012, 10:15 PM
 
Location: Wellington and North of South
5,127 posts, read 7,671,829 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
The impact on global temperature due to the La Nina itself (i.e. that big cold pool in the equatorial Pacific) pretty much disappears once the ENSO becomes neutral.
ENSO events have a time lag as far as global temperatures are concerned.

As an aside, at least one of two predictions (if you're expecting a relatively cool 2013) for 2013 will be wrong:

Prediction: New Surface Temperature Record in 2013

You may well both turn out to be wrong. Or are you not actually willing to make a prediction for 2013?
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