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Yes, we all agree Jan-Oct was warm (I think), the debate (if you can call it that) is whether the warm pattern has ended. Some are saying we'll have an usually cold phase. I won't go that far, but I'd say we're probably back to neutral. At least for my location, it seemed to have slowly ended in the last few months. Perhaps not for your location but it seems to be at least less consistent nation-wide. There have been short below average spells in the midst of the warm pattern, but my feeling is that the warm spell is over. We shall see soon.
I hope the warm is over, but I think it is not. Looking at the Chicago temperatures in my message above it is very striking that the below normal daily highs were in the single digits below normal, but the above normal daily highs literally soared, and there were 7 days that were double digit above normal (one +22° on Nov. 22) and these soaring temperatures completely obliterated what was looking like at the first of the month to be a below normal month.
Bottom line, it seems the hot is hotter than the cold is cold. The duration and persistence is just not there for the cold. Having said that, it is November and you are right, we shall see how the winter handles this.
Yes, we all agree Jan-Oct was warm (I think), the debate (if you can call it that) is whether the warm pattern has ended. Some are saying we'll have an usually cold phase. I won't go that far, but I'd say we're probably back to neutral. At least for my location, it seemed to have slowly ended in the last few months. Perhaps not for your location but it seems to be at least less consistent nation-wide. There have been short below average spells in the midst of the warm pattern, but my feeling is that the warm spell is over. We shall see soon.
I agree that it’s hard to take a region as large as the USA or NA and try to pin down where monthly mean temps will be above/below normal for the longer term (like 6 months or a year). However, I do think that shorter term climate trends do show some direction…and can be matched (modestly) to some short term range in forecasting.
Keep something in mind, that despite a long and hot summer in the Ohio Valley and much of the middle and upper Atlantic states - there was a negative NAO this summer. That’s right. I’ve forgotten much of what the old timers used to say about the NAO – but I do remember them being admit that the “NAO never stays negative for long” . It was negative for more than 6 months from April to Sept. Although the NAO is a big player in some way in all of the USA – the biggest impact it has is the middle and upper Atlantic states (cold/stormy…vs. warmer and dry).
My guess (and I admit I could be 100% wrong ) is that because the NAO was so negative…for so long…that it’s a good bet that it will not be negative for a good part of this winter. That might not mean much to other areas of the USA – but in places like your location and mine it could make the difference between a pleasant winter and an ugly one. We might be seeing this already - the very first week out of the gate of meteorological winter next week (starting this coming Saturday) temps will average 3 to 6 F above normal in much of the east central and eastern USA. I see no truly cold air coming down from NW Canada and into the Upper Midwest (the direction cold comes into the USA normally) for at least 7 days after that (Dec 10th). So it would not surprise me if December 2012 as a month is above normal in much of the eastern USA.
Since my last non bias "warm" post got overlooked here's the latest Euro just out. After this cooler than normal week in the East a shot of warmth coming and back out it goes as another trough goes in place .
Here's the max temps for next monday (7 days away) 60s into the Mid Atlantic. 80s in Texas. Upper 70s Florida. 50s NorthEast. 60s and 70s in the Plains. All above normal in the U.S
I'm sure this one might be overlooked too since its the joys and entertainment of the forums. but its Nice not to be known as the one who hypes weather.
Since my last non bias "warm" post got overlooked here's the latest Euro just out. After this cooler than normal week in the East a shot of warmth coming and back out it goes as another trough goes in place .
Here's the max temps for next monday (7 days away) 60s into the Mid Atlantic. 80s in Texas. Upper 70s Florida. 50s NorthEast. 60s and 70s in the Plains. All above normal in the U.S
I'm sure this one might be overlooked too since its the joys and entertainment of the forums. but its Nice not to be known as the one who hypes weather.
I think we are due for some above normal weather anyway. Some places in the east are running 4-5f below their montly mean for November. We are below by 3.1f our average temps. Also, yesterday was the coldest day of this cold season. We had a high/low of 41/30f. That is even colder than the December avg mean temp of 45/30f. It has been below normal since pretty much the whole of November.
I think we are due for some above normal weather anyway. Some places in the east are running 4-5f below their montly mean for November. We are below by 3.1f our average temps. Also, yesterday was the coldest day of this cold season. We had a high/low of 41/30f. That is even colder than the December avg mean temp of 45/30f. It has been below normal since pretty much the whole of November.
Great point about the December avg mean temp, I didnt even bother looking at that yet.
Some people always wonder why I look at and talk about weather 24/7, and I always them... there's always something we can talk about. Weather its a different location or a statistic.
Last edited by Cambium; 11-26-2012 at 02:42 PM..
Reason: I know I misspelt "whether". lol
I think we are due for some above normal weather anyway. Some places in the east are running 4-5f below their montly mean for November. We are below by 3.1f our average temps. Also, yesterday was the coldest day of this cold season. We had a high/low of 41/30f. That is even colder than the December avg mean temp of 45/30f. It has been below normal since pretty much the whole of November.
Agree.
I think at least the frist 10 days of December is warmer than average in the central and eastern USA.
My guess (and I admit I could be 100% wrong ) is that because the NAO was so negative…for so long…that it’s a good bet that it will not be negative for a good part of this winter. That might not mean much to other areas of the USA – but in places like your location and mine it could make the difference between a pleasant winter and an ugly one. We might be seeing this already - the very first week out of the gate of meteorological winter next week (starting this coming Saturday) temps will average 3 to 6 F above normal in much of the east central and eastern USA. I see no truly cold air coming down from NW Canada and into the Upper Midwest (the direction cold comes into the USA normally) for at least 7 days after that (Dec 10th). So it would not surprise me if December 2012 as a month is above normal in much of the eastern USA.
I totally agree. The November "cold" was not that impressive, and when the data comes out, this observation will be supported. (See the Chicago post) From the way things are looking now, we are going to be so far behind, i.e. ABOVE NORMAL, after the first couple of weeks of December, that it's going to be extremely hard for December to be anything but ABOVE NORMAL for the month. There is absolutely nothing to support, other than wishful thinking, that January and February will be any sort of blockbuster cold for the nation as a whole, considering that the Western 2/3 of the country are now virtually locked in for a very warm winter.
I totally agree. The November "cold" was not that impressive, and when the data comes out, this observation will be supported. (See the Chicago post) From the way things are looking now, we are going to be so far behind, i.e. ABOVE NORMAL, after the first couple of weeks of December, that it's going to be extremely hard for December to be anything but ABOVE NORMAL for the month. There is absolutely nothing to support, other than wishful thinking, that January and February will be any sort of blockbuster cold for the nation as a whole, considering that the Western 2/3 of the country are now virtually locked in for a very warm winter.
Jan and feb are too far out maybe to really know, but maybe your right. I do think that at least the first 2 weeks of December will be above normal for much of the USA from coast to coast, that's a good bet the way things are looking.
The cold overnight temps in the southern tier have been replaced with near normal lows forecast for tonight. In fact as of right now temps are still pretty warm from Southern CA eastward to the lower South Carolina coast (below):
In fact, lows will struggle to fall below 50 -55 F in most of the southern USA tonight...and struggle to fall below 60 F in the coming days. In parts of Florida, lows will struggle to fall below 65 F.
I can only imagine what will happen once we get into the warm pattern by this coming weekend - lol.
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) and these soaring temperatures completely obliterated what was looking like at the first of the month to be a below normal month. 
Warm is a coming.....and going
but its Nice not to be known as the one who hypes weather. 
