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Old 09-17-2012, 10:19 AM
nei nei started this thread nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Even in the last few days there's been some melt:

Daily Arctic Sea Ice Maps

for one week the change is more obvious:

Daily Arctic Sea Ice Maps

the greenenish area in the center right has become more green. Would show up more in measurements of sea ice area than sea ice extent. Perhaps given enough time, at this rate that whole greenish chunk would melt, creating a big drop in sea ice extent. But by this time the Arctic Ocean would likely be refreezing. Nevertheless, while the sea ice isn't melting quickly anymore, it's still melting not refreezing. To say the minimum has been reached is premature — and we might not be able to tell until a week or two later.

Also: I like that their servername is "igloo".
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Old 09-17-2012, 10:34 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Nevertheless, while the sea ice isn't melting quickly anymore, it's still melting not refreezing. To say the minimum has been reached is premature — and we might not be able to tell until a week or two later.
Indeed. However, the minimum extent, when it is reached, shouldn't be much lower than the current extent. In the past week or so, as the green part is melting, the core of the sea ice near Ellesmere Island is becoming more heavily concentrated. Is there some sort of air or water current compacting the sea ice? Or is it just temperature-driven (i.e. the core refreezing but the fringe still melting)?

EDIT: It appears to just be melting, since that <30% spot hasn't increased in extent (as one would expect during compaction)
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Old 09-17-2012, 01:00 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC.
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I'm not sure it these effects of open water in the Arctic were expected, but it seems they are effecting the entire northern hemisphere..

The unprecedented expanse of ice-free Arctic Ocean has been absorbing the 24-hour sun over the short polar summer. The heat in the water must be released into the atmosphere if the ice is to re-form this autumn.

Researchers have already shown that the jet stream has been shifting northwards in recent years. Francis and colleagues have recently documented that the jet stream is also slowing down. As the sea ice continues to decline, the jet stream will likely continue to slow more, and shift further north “bringing wild temperature swings and greater numbers of extreme events” in the future he said. “We’re in uncharted territory.” Arctic Sea Ice Melt May Trigger Extreme European Winter | Wired Science | Wired.com
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Old 09-17-2012, 02:21 PM
nei nei started this thread nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanspeur View Post
The unprecedented expanse of ice-free Arctic Ocean has been absorbing the 24-hour sun over the short polar summer. The heat in the water must be released into the atmosphere if the ice is to re-form this autumn.
I'm not sure if that makes much sense. Sea ice area and extent was similar to other previously low years until about late July. Since the sun is already rather low in the sky in August, I'm not sure how much a difference the lack of ice would make. Certaintly by September it would be zero. I listed some possible consequences of low sea ice here:

//www.city-data.com/forum/26027707-post74.html

Check the link to the graph I made on solar radiation per month.
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Old 09-17-2012, 04:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanspeur View Post
The unprecedented expanse of ice-free Arctic Ocean has been absorbing the 24-hour sun over the short polar summer. The heat in the water must be released into the atmosphere if the ice is to re-form this autumn.
This post actually gave me an idea to research something. Maybe this is why we have persistant negative NAO which has deep blocking and a reason why the stratosphere is warmer this year. All that heat release is causing the 2. Hmmm.
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Old 09-17-2012, 06:55 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
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From my experience looking at the chart patterns and longer-term trends, AO/NAO doesn't seem to have much of a correlation at all to sea ice levels.
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Old 09-17-2012, 08:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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10:15pm EST Weather Channel going to commercial but when they come back they will show the Polar Opposites why the AntArctic is growing sea ice but Arctic is losing.

tune in
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Old 09-17-2012, 08:35 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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They had weatherunderground Jeff Masters on there. He gave an analogy that you cant look at the two and pick which one is more important because its like there's a fire in your attic but you go check if the basement is ok. The planet is the house and the entire house matters.

"Antarctic is land surrounded by ocean". Arctic is ocean surrounded by land"

"Arctic is warmer than antarctic so even if antarctic warmed 5 degrees it wouldnt put a dent in the ice but the arctic is mostly near the ice melting point so its easier to melt"
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Old 09-17-2012, 08:39 PM
nei nei started this thread nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
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Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
They had weatherunderground Jeff Masters on there.
Reminder that the Weather Channel bought weatherunderground.
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Old 09-18-2012, 05:03 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
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Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
"Arctic is warmer than antarctic so even if antarctic warmed 5 degrees it wouldnt put a dent in the ice but the arctic is mostly near the ice melting point so its easier to melt"
That's not the case, either. The fringes of the Antarctic are close to the melting point, so if the Antarctic was warmed by 5F there would be significant melting. It wouldn't be as much as the Arctic melting under that scenario, but the Antarctic ice would be melting, not growing. In fact if I recall correctly satellite measurements have shown that the Antarctic is currently in a very slight cooling trend, and this conforms to the slight growth in sea ice over the past 30 years. Of course, in that same time the rest of the world was warming, so Antarctica appears to be a cool spot, unlike the Arctic which has been a hot spot, but it's nice to know that the position of the penguins is safer than the polar bears .
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