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most of the dummies have little interest in weather or climate; they just spew talking points.
I'm hoping that we get some decent ice up there this winter. Maybe if we can lock up all the cold over the North Pole all winter will do the trick. We can get some good ice cover there, as well as give us down lower a mild winter. That would be a win-win for me.
Meanwhile, the temperatures above the 80th parallel are finally taking a dive. Sure, they're still well above normal, but they're plunging for the first time so far this season.
Also, although it doesn't exactly belong in this thread, it should be noted that Antarctic ice is nearing record highs. The current ice extent is the 2nd highest on record, and it still has a ways to go before reaching the maximum:
There isn't all that much news about the Arctic sea ice. The stabilization is continuing, and it looks like there's a small uptick for the first time in this season:
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
I'm hoping that we get some decent ice up there this winter. Maybe if we can lock up all the cold over the North Pole all winter will do the trick. We can get some good ice cover there, as well as give us down lower a mild winter. That would be a win-win for me.
Or maybe we can get the cold down to lower latitudes so that the sea ice can reach new areas, all the while keeping the blocking benign enough to allow for growth in higher latitudes. That would be a win-win for me, and it did happen in years past (1960's/70's, Little Ice Age). The ideal way to grow sea ice is to have cold everywhere. That's how glacial periods lock in.
Besides, the cold being all bottled up in this past winter didn't seem to help the ice much. The 2010-11 ice season had a near-normal maximum (like 2011-12) and had a higher minimum extent, and there was plenty of cold and snow to go around during that winter.
Besides, the cold being all bottled up in this past winter didn't seem to help the ice much. The 2010-11 ice season had a near-normal maximum (like 2011-12) and had a higher minimum extent, and there was plenty of cold and snow to go around during that winter.
It helped the ice during the winter. I think the reason it didn't last was that it wasn't very thick.
From the NSDIC, refreeze has started. I updated my graph of the melt rate taking an average of 5 days:
The lowest value (again with a 5 day running mean; average over current day and 4 days previous) was 3.41 million kilometers on Sep 16 and 17. Looks like your prediction was under:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus
According to the NSIDC dataset, the melt curve has begun to ever-so-slightly bend. We'll have to see if this becomes a trend going further into September. If I may make a prediction, I think the minimum this year will be around 3 000 000 square kilometers, plus or minus 250 000. We'll see if I'm right. Any other predictions?
Mine was closer, but partly because I was confused and thought the current numbers were higher than they were. Fun watching while it lasted! Refreeze should be interesting.
"As temperatures over the Arctic Ocean fall with the approach of winter, the extra energy that was absorbed during summer must be released back into the atmosphere before the water can cool to freezing temperatures. Essentially, this loads the atmosphere with a new source of energy—one that affects weather patterns, both locally and on a larger scale."
If this turns out to be true, I might just have to make a return trip up there to catch me a good snow.
Oh, I thought you were making a permanent move?
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