Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I think it's worth noting that the southern hemisphere of Mars is colder than its northern hemisphere...or at least the south pole has colder and longer winters than the north pole there. The cause is not the same as Earth (I think, correct me if I'm wrong) but still interesting to compare.
This is rather interesting, but it's getting sort of off topic. Perhaps we should create a thread entitled something like "Hypothetical effects of different climate changes", where we could discuss what would happen globally, regionally, or just in one spot under different hypothetical scenarios, such as warming, cooling, wettening, drying, or other factors. For those who are dissatisfied with their current climate it could be interesting to see if a 10F warming or cooling would help them.
Sounds like a good thread topic. Why don't you set it up if you're interested?
With all that cleared up, it's sort of weird that sea ice could increase with warming sea temperatures. The same phenomenon certainly isn't seen in the Arctic. Or perhaps there has been some inaccuracy in the measurements?
Here's one possible explanation:
Currently, as the atmosphere warms, the hydrological cycle accelerates and there is more precipitation in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica. This increased precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, stabilizes the upper ocean and insulates it from the ocean heat below. This insulating effect reduces the amount of melting occurring below the sea ice. In addition, snow has a tendency to reflect atmospheric heat away from the sea ice, which reduces melting from above.
My guess is that the Arctic has warmed up past a threshold where every year is warm enough to melt more ice. Cooler years melt less ice, but almost every year melts some ice, similar to a series of winter days with a mean above freezing that melt some snow every day even if the nights are below freezing, so total snow cover continuously declines. Summer melt is faster since most of the ice is close to the freezing or rather melting point. There is some variability; some years so bigger decreases than others. The estimate for the minimum volume this year is shockingly low, 3000 cubic kilometers or less than 1/4 of what it was a few decades ago. My guess of the future fate of summer sea ice:
1) Sometime within the next 10 years there will be a summer with no Arctic sea ice for short time. The sea ice extent would have to have a large nosedive
2) Arctic sea ice could stabilize at a new, lower value because some portions of the Arctic stay too cold in the summer.
I'm leaning towards (1) since sea ice loss has been accelerating, and a small, thin ice pack might be in danger of fragmenting or blown around to spots where it could melt (just guessing).
Well if warm weather is good for humans, as I suspect you believe, this is encouraging for the rein of humans.
I only wish I could believe that.
I think that when (not if) real climate change occurs, both to warmer or colder conditions, humans will meet a quick end. In the scope of the big picture – we are a lot more fragile than we think.
I think that when (not if) real climate change occurs, both to warmer or colder conditions, humans will meet a quick end. In the scope of the big picture – we are a lot more fragile than we think.
I think civilization as we know it is more fragile than most of us think, but at the same time humans are tougher than most of us think. After all, we've survived millions of years of climate changes that many today would consider unsurvivable. If we were fragile enough to become extinct as soon as a real climate change occurs, humans would have died out long ago.
Of course, our civilization is fragile, but with our brains and technology I am confident that we could adapt to just about any scenario. If there is extreme warming that causes population centers to become hot and devoid of water, most people will simply move north. Yellowknife could become the new Chicago, and available water is projected to increase in the present-day subarctic. Part of global warming is a poleward shift of all climate zones. If there are crop failures in the breadbasket areas, there would be massive famine, but civilization has endured famine many times before. Catastrophic? Sure. A civilization-killer? No. Sea level rise would create a huge disaster in most cities, but the end result would be a big but still not killing blow to civilization as the surviving population relocates to dry land.
I believe the biggest danger if we continue to pump CO2 into the atmosphere is an ocean anoxic event, which responds directly to CO2 and thus would still be a threat even when global cooling takes hold in the next few centuries. It would wipe out most marine life and have a greater impact than simple warming. We could still adapt to it by raising seafood in massive aquatic farms, but too few people talk about this non-climatic but still anthropogenic threat.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Well if warm weather is good for humans, as I suspect you believe, this is encouraging for the rein of humans.
I don't think human welfare has much to do with warm or cold climate, but I think if anything colder climate would benefit us, as long as it occurred over decades and not mere months. After all, the process that led to the Renaissance and modern civilization started when the climate turned colder in 1315, so that should count for something. I'm confident that regardless of whether any given climate change is good, bad, or neutral for us we will be able to adapt. The adaptations for an ice age climate have been laid out in another thread.
I think what Wavehunter is getting at is that there are different kinds of warmer climate and warmth, in terms of what areas are warm and how fast warming occurs, and in what way. I think Wavehunter would prefer a gradual change that would just warm the winters over what is projected with AGW. I deduced this from the fact that from my perspective there are different kinds of cold and colder climate. Something like glacial period climate that develops over about a century I think would be an improvement, but a sudden shift to Snowball Earth would be pretty bad.
It's also very dependent on location and your individual preferences. For warm weather fans in Russia, the prospect of becoming subtropical is enticing, but for WWF's in Kansas the prospect of having 180 days per year over 90F is harrowing. Of course for coldies, their options would be very limited in a warming planet as true polar climate disappears and cool summers almost become extinct.
With all that said, I think I should start the "Hypothetical effects of different climate changes" thread. We're really becoming off-topic now and the seed we've planted here deserves to grow in a bigger pot.
Sixth highest daily ice-extent area ever recorded.
When one chunk of ice the size of Manhattan breaks off, warmist start screaming!
But when 2,400 Manhattans worth of ice forms overnight, not a peep from the mainstream media.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Ice Extent Growing fast
