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To be honest - the warmth scares the heck out of me. Granted I don't want to see below normal cold (not a cold weather fan), but the 20 - 22 months of warmer than normal temps is firghtening if one thinks about the ramifcations.
As to the drought - I don't know if this is "soft science" or not....but the old time climatolgists used to say that "drought breeds drought"; Meaning that as the soil/ground dries out, it wamers quicker and quicker when the sun hits its surface, this creates an almost permanent qusi high pressure -which furthur promotes dryness, lack of rainfall, and more drying...etc. I did see some of this in my travels in the 1990's in southern South Carolina/south Gerogia (they are often in cronic drought). There was a period of maybe 17 months with dry weather, high pressure, and rainfall depatures EVERY MONTH. In fact, the fires came by mid spring (1995 I think) and thousands of acres burned in North Florida, Georgia, and southern South Carolina. WHen summer came, the burned and dried ground help temps hit more than 100 F for weeks on end (they may even have broke records as I remember).
So despite the banter with the cold fans...it scares me that they see something else then we do.
Nor am I a cold weather fan, however, I do agree that the consequences of these types of winters is frightening for this country. From the west coast to the midwest to the east coast and north and south...this is in no way a good pattern for any of us.
Hopefully we will have a normal winter (however, selfishly I did vote for a warmer than normal winter) and get back on track meteorlogically speaking (and might as well wish for a return to a normal fiscal return as well, can't hurt to "wish").
Your point? That is all past data. We're talking about the future here. You were quick to dismiss long-range predictions for cold, but didn't do the same for ones that suggest heat.
Funny how some question long-range models suggesting cold, but don't question it when it suggests warmth. Simple fact of the matter is no one is really sure what will happen later in the month. The speculation is fun, but the bias sticks out like a sore thumb.
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Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90
Your point? That is all past data. We're talking about the future here. You were quick to dismiss long-range predictions for cold, but didn't do the same for ones that suggest heat.
My thoughts exactly.
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Originally Posted by HomeIsWhere...
Hopefully we will have a normal winter
Aw, come on. A normal winter is just so boring .
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(and might as well wish for a return to a normal fiscal return as well, can't hurt to "wish")
Normal fiscal return? What does that mean? A normal return for your investments? More household income? A balanced federal budget? Averting the "fiscal cliff"? This might be off-topic, but I'm just curious.
As an aside, I know all of this is no laughing matter, but I think sometimes we get too deadly-serious about long range forecasting. It's more of an art than a science, and an imperfect art at that, and there's something to be said for taking it easy and seeing what happens at the end of the month.
Agreed. I don't take too seriously the long range forecasts until they actually happen.
Your point? That is all past data. We're talking about the future here. You were quick to dismiss long-range predictions for cold, but didn't do the same for ones that suggest heat.
No, my point in putting up the map is that I give more credence to warm forecasts because we have had more consistently warm weather than cold over the past 32 months or so.
It's starting here in NY! low 60's this week. The OP starting this thread was sure on target. I know it's not normal, And maybe a bad sign climate and Earth-wise but 2 days ago it was cold, With a slate grey sky. I recall looking up as I have over the years and thinking how depressing it looks. Sun is always a welcome visitor IMO.
Normal fiscal return? What does that mean? A normal return for your investments? More household income? A balanced federal budget? Averting the "fiscal cliff"? This might be off-topic, but I'm just curious.
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D)
