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Old 12-02-2012, 11:58 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,576 posts, read 7,994,528 times
Reputation: 2446

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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMarbles View Post
Also didn't you have a lot of snow and cold 2 winters ago?
It did get down to around 20F in Houston, and it did snow a little bit, but Houston itself didn't get anywhere near a foot of snow. There was a lot of snow and cold (and freezing rain) in other parts of Texas and Louisiana, but Houston sort of missed out. Besides, that's still 2 years without any winter weather at all, which is nothing unusual for Houston, but still...

As for climate change, it depends on which direction it's changing - if it's warmer, then your chances will be slimmer, and if it's colder, then your chances will get better. I lean toward the colder side myself for predictions of future climate*, but even under that scenario a foot of snow for Houston is a tall order. It would take something close to an ice age for Houston to have a good chance of a foot of snow in an average year.

However, there is also normal variability, which I believe is your best hope of having a big snowstorm. This occurred in 1895, when nearby Beaumont got 30 inches of snow. The climate was colder then, but you have a shot at snow even in warmer periods. A more intense version of the White Christmas that Brownsville had in 2004 (in the midst of a warm epoch) would give you a foot of snow. So, while colder climate will increase your chances, it's still a rare event, so barring an ice age your best bet is to roll the dice and hope you get lucky.

*Predictions of climate, especially global or continental-scale climate, are very tricky, and although one can sometimes tell which direction the future climate will go in, it is pretty much impossible to forecast when a colder or warmer climate will start to kick in, or how fast a certain change will progress. Maybe you could guess that it will come within 20 years or 50 years, but that information is too vague to be useful. The intrinsic variability of climate makes it impossible to tell when colder or warmer winters will become regular, much less which particular winter will feature "bitter cold" and a foot of snow.
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Old 12-02-2012, 12:41 PM
 
Location: Katy, Texas
1,440 posts, read 2,539,209 times
Reputation: 835
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nairobi View Post
...for the South, that is. I want a foot of snow in Houston.

For most of the past month, much of Texas has been above average and unseasonably warm. It feels more like April here.

At what point in the CC process will we see colder temps become more standard for the South Central US? Help me out.
Forecast shows a drop to 73F on Wednesday

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Old 12-02-2012, 12:47 PM
 
Location: The Magnolia City
8,928 posts, read 14,328,949 times
Reputation: 4853
Houston had a white Xmas in 2004.

It just seems that we're overdue for an extreme winter weather event, like everywhere else.
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Old 12-02-2012, 12:50 PM
 
Location: The Magnolia City
8,928 posts, read 14,328,949 times
Reputation: 4853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Asagi View Post
Forecast shows a drop to 73F on Wednesday
Isn't that disgusting? The average high/low for Houston in December is 65/47. We should be enjoying crisp weather right now.

It's going to take a lot more effort to get into the Xmas spirit this year.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:06 PM
 
Location: Florida
861 posts, read 1,455,108 times
Reputation: 1446
Warm weather sucks...
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:11 PM
 
Location: Katy, Texas
1,440 posts, read 2,539,209 times
Reputation: 835
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nairobi View Post
It just seems that we're overdue for an extreme winter weather event, like everywhere else.
Overdue? Feb 2011 was cold enough and so was Jan 2010. Hoping for a mild winter and more 80F days in December
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:35 PM
 
Location: The Magnolia City
8,928 posts, read 14,328,949 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asagi View Post
Overdue? Feb 2011 was cold enough and so was Jan 2010. Hoping for a mild winter and more 80F days in December
I'm not talking about us just being mildly below average, like those months were. I'm talking extremes here. A type of winter no one alive has experienced.

After such a nice October, I though we were in for a nice, cool season, but things just keep getting warmer and warmer. If I wanted this type of autumn/winter, I'd move to Miami.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:39 PM
 
Location: The Magnolia City
8,928 posts, read 14,328,949 times
Reputation: 4853
Quote:
Originally Posted by CountryFisher View Post
Warm weather sucks...
During this time of year, yes, it really does. I can actually enjoy it April-September, though.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Lincoln, NE
1,219 posts, read 1,507,358 times
Reputation: 566
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nairobi View Post
During this time of year, yes, it really does. I can actually enjoy it April-September, though.
Yeah, I'd have to agree with you. Personally, I like record highs in the summer, but in the winter... no thanks.
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Old 12-02-2012, 04:50 PM
 
Location: Buenos Aires, Argentina
839 posts, read 3,070,281 times
Reputation: 603
I feel sorry for you guys out there in Houston. It's really disgusting to have to bear warm weather in winter.
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