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Old 12-24-2012, 01:19 PM
 
585 posts, read 1,526,757 times
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The Arbor Day Foundation classified Erie PA and Cleveland OH as zone 7
The Arbor Day Foundation

Then go to: Down load high resolution TIF of this map.
Then expand map using the roller of your mouse (avoid double click it doesn't work).
Focus on PA/OH, you will see a tiny portion of Erie & Cleveland are the same as NYC (yellow).

According to wiki:

Erie PA:
Erie, Pennsylvania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jan mean: (0.9-6.1)/2 = -2.6C

Cleveland OH:
Cleveland - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jan mean: (1.2-6.4)/2 = -2.6C, record low -29C (-20F)

If I apply the same method for Amherstberg On:
Amherstburg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jan mean: -2.9C (26.8F), record low -28C (-18F)

Note: The record low of Amherstburg ON was actually warmer than Cleveland OH.

So I think Amherstburg is at least as warm as NYC (zone 7) and NYC is classified as subtropical.

I know there will be different theories but I simply follow the logic (Arbor Day & NYC's zone 7 subtropical classification).

What do you folks think ?
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Old 12-24-2012, 03:14 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,593 posts, read 7,216,714 times
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Hardiness zones reflect more on extremes than the averages. NYC is zone 7 and a good chunk of Arkansas, despite being quite a bit warmer overall, is zone 6.

As for Amherstburg, yes, it is technically subtropical, but when you get to -2.9C it's a case of splitting hairs. It's more borderline than anything else. Despite the different classifications, City A at -2.9C and City B at -3.1C will have much more in common with each other than their brethren deeper within their zones. That's just how any climate classification works, and -3C is the isotherm that best fits the persistent snow line. In their case warm winters will have transient snowpacks and cold winters will have more durable snowpacks. This is the case with places like Toronto, Amherstburg, and Chicago.

As for Toronto's winters sometimes reaching subtropical criteria, Toronto's averages ensure that warm winters will have quite a bit of thawing and breach the subtropical threshold, but if you notice there are a lot more years that are continental than subtropical.
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Old 12-24-2012, 03:36 PM
 
Location: London, UK
9,992 posts, read 11,203,344 times
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Calling a climate subtropical so far from the tropics is weird, I think they should change the name because its misleading.

Maybe it should be called Humid Sub temperate or Humid Transitional climate - they sound much better.
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:11 PM
 
641 posts, read 924,998 times
Reputation: 522
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowbird100 View Post
The Arbor Day Foundation classified Erie PA and Cleveland OH as zone 7
The Arbor Day Foundation

Then go to: Down load high resolution TIF of this map.
Then expand map using the roller of your mouse (avoid double click it doesn't work).
Focus on PA/OH, you will see a tiny portion of Erie & Cleveland are the same as NYC (yellow).

According to wiki:

Erie PA:
Erie, Pennsylvania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jan mean: (0.9-6.1)/2 = -2.6C

Cleveland OH:
Cleveland - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jan mean: (1.2-6.4)/2 = -2.6C, record low -29C (-20F)

If I apply the same method for Amherstberg On:
Amherstburg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jan mean: -2.9C (26.8F), record low -28C (-18F)

Note: The record low of Amherstburg ON was actually warmer than Cleveland OH.

So I think Amherstburg is at least as warm as NYC (zone 7) and NYC is classified as subtropical.

I know there will be different theories but I simply follow the logic (Arbor Day & NYC's zone 7 subtropical classification).

What do you folks think ?
Snowbird, I think your on to something.

Curious, I checked Environment Canada website and looked at January data for
warmest places in southern Ontario.
Keep in mind data available is old 1971-2000 normals.

I think more areas of southern Ontario in the fututre will meet Koppens -3c
coldest month mean temp threshold.

Here are a few examples:

Burlington avg jan high -0.9c avg jan low -8.6c mean -4.8c

Chatham avg jan high -0.3c avg jan low -7.0c mean -3.7c

Niagara Falls avg jan high -0.4c avg jan low -7.9c mean -4.2c

Port Dahousie avg jan high -0.6c avg jan low -7.1c mean -3.9c

St. Catharines avg jan high -0.5c avg jan low -7.7c mean -4.1c

Hamilton** avg jan high -0.4c avg jan low -6.8c mean -3.6c **downtown weather station

Toronto** avg jan high -1.1c avg jan low -7.3c mean -4.2c **downtown weather station

Windsor avg jan high -0.9 avg jan low -8.1c mean -4.5c
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:32 PM
 
585 posts, read 1,526,757 times
Reputation: 195
Quote:
Originally Posted by burloak View Post
Snowbird, I think your on to something.

Curious, I checked Environment Canada website and looked at January data for
warmest places in southern Ontario.
Keep in mind data available is old 1971-2000 normals.

I think more areas of southern Ontario in the fututre will meet Koppens -3c
coldest month mean temp threshold.

Here are a few examples:

Burlington avg jan high -0.9c avg jan low -8.6c mean -4.8c

Chatham avg jan high -0.3c avg jan low -7.0c mean -3.7c

Niagara Falls avg jan high -0.4c avg jan low -7.9c mean -4.2c

Port Dahousie avg jan high -0.6c avg jan low -7.1c mean -3.9c

St. Catharines avg jan high -0.5c avg jan low -7.7c mean -4.1c

Hamilton** avg jan high -0.4c avg jan low -6.8c mean -3.6c **downtown weather station

Toronto** avg jan high -1.1c avg jan low -7.3c mean -4.2c **downtown weather station

Windsor avg jan high -0.9 avg jan low -8.1c mean -4.5c
Oh, where did you get the Niagara Falls/St Catharines and some other cities from as I did try to find Niagara Fallls but in vain.

I only saw bigger cities from the map but no Niagara Falls etc etc.

You even managed to find Chatham, could you post the links ? Thanks !
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Old 12-24-2012, 07:10 PM
 
641 posts, read 924,998 times
Reputation: 522
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowbird100 View Post
Oh, where did you get the Niagara Falls/St Catharines and some other cities from as I did try to find Niagara Fallls but in vain.

I only saw bigger cities from the map but no Niagara Falls etc etc.

You even managed to find Chatham, could you post the links ? Thanks !
I just go to top thread here at C-D weather forum, "How to get climate record data"
our moderator nei has a link to Environment Canada,

once at the site just click on Climate archive, it's all there, unfortunately no 1981-2010 normals yet
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Old 12-24-2012, 07:12 PM
 
585 posts, read 1,526,757 times
Reputation: 195
Quote:
Originally Posted by burloak View Post
I just go to top thread here at C-D weather forum, "How to get climate record data"
our moderator nei has a link to Environment Canada,

once at the site just click on Climate archive, it's all there, unfortunately no 1981-2010 normals yet
Thanks !
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Old 12-24-2012, 08:07 PM
 
915 posts, read 1,758,051 times
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It appears that it doesn't take a whole lot of warmth to be considered "Humid Subtropical". At present January averages for Toronto are comfortably below freezing and are likely to remain so for a long time to come. December, February also regularly shake out below 0 (32) as does March sometimes so I don't think Koppen will change Toronto's designation for a while yet. Below are Downtown Toronto's average and extreme temperatures and precipitation. Note the averages are based on 1971 - 2000 norms; I suspect the 1981 - 2010 averages the Met office hasn't yet revealed will show up even warmer:

Station Results | Canada's National Climate Archive

But the climate is changing and the direction of change is toward a warmer world in nearly all regions. Why this is so, in spite of orbital geometry pushing the planet the other way, is something I'd rather not go into but if this unusual (and disturbing - IMHO) trend continues through the new century and into the 22nd, Toronto could well end up with a climate only slightly cooler than Washington DC or Richmond VA and be considered a coolish "Subtropical".
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Old 12-25-2012, 04:10 AM
 
585 posts, read 1,526,757 times
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Yes, Toronto (especially downtown Toronto) and some selected regions such as St Catharines/Niagara, Hamilton, Windsor Chatham Leamington stand a good chance reaching the threshold of -3C Jan mean.

One thing to point out though is the lattitude of Toronto is deceiving in terms of climate. Toronto was built beside a huge body of water, lake Ontario, and far away from Georgian Bay and lake Huron. That's why Toronto is warmer and just South of the snow belt.

Downtown Toronto is zone 6b and I am not surprised it will eventually move into zone 7a or 7b (NYC, DC), making it the coolest subtropical city in the foreseeable future.

BTW, St Catherine/Niagara region and the Windsor area are already in zone 7a, according to some websites.
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Old 12-25-2012, 08:05 AM
 
585 posts, read 1,526,757 times
Reputation: 195
Quote:
Originally Posted by burloak View Post
Snowbird, I think your on to something.

Curious, I checked Environment Canada website and looked at January data for
warmest places in southern Ontario.
Keep in mind data available is old 1971-2000 normals.

I think more areas of southern Ontario in the fututre will meet Koppens -3c
coldest month mean temp threshold.

Here are a few examples:

Burlington avg jan high -0.9c avg jan low -8.6c mean -4.8c

Chatham avg jan high -0.3c avg jan low -7.0c mean -3.7c

Niagara Falls avg jan high -0.4c avg jan low -7.9c mean -4.2c

Port Dahousie avg jan high -0.6c avg jan low -7.1c mean -3.9c

St. Catharines avg jan high -0.5c avg jan low -7.7c mean -4.1c

Hamilton** avg jan high -0.4c avg jan low -6.8c mean -3.6c **downtown weather station

Toronto** avg jan high -1.1c avg jan low -7.3c mean -4.2c **downtown weather station

Windsor avg jan high -0.9 avg jan low -8.1c mean -4.5c
The above is from 1971 to 2000 and I think it was warmer in the last decade. So I am not surprised new averages from 1980-2010 or 2012 will give us warmer averages for places in southern Ontario.

Based on the above data, downtown Hamilton might technically be the second subtropical region after Amherstberg On. Hamilton's only 0.4C shy of the -3.0C threshold, but that's the older 1971-2000 data.

Could someone spend the time to work out the average for Hamilton from 1981-2011 (30 years) or 1986-2011 (25 years) or even 1991-2011 (20 years). With such a warmer than normal in the last one or two decades, I think the Jan averages might be ... -3.0C

Keep our fingers crossed
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