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Old 01-08-2013, 05:02 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Suprised nobody started this thread. So it's official now. 1998 was not the peak for the U.S. Ouch. We technically cant say we been cooling since 1998 now.

Full Report here. State of the Climate

2012 was a historic year for extreme weather that included drought, wildfires, hurricanes and storms; however, tornado activity was below average

2012 marked the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States with the year consisting of a record warm spring, second warmest summer, fourth warmest winter and a warmer-than-average autumn. The average temperature for 2012 was 55.3°F, 3.2°F above the 20th century average, and 1.0°F above 1998, the previous warmest year.

The average precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. for 2012 was 26.57 inches, 2.57 inches below average, making it the 15th driest year on record for the nation. At its peak in July, the drought of 2012 engulfed 61 percent of the nation with the Mountain West, Great Plains, and Midwest experiencing the most intense drought conditions. The dry conditions proved ideal for wildfires in the West, charring 9.2 million acres — the third highest on record.

The U.S. Climate Extremes Index indicated that 2012 was the second most extreme year on record for the nation. The index, which evaluates extremes in temperature and precipitation, as well as landfalling tropical cyclones, was nearly twice the average value and second only to 1998. To date, 2012 has seen 11 disasters that have reached the $1 billion threshold in losses, to include Sandy, Isaac, and tornado outbreaks experienced in the Great Plains, Texas and Southeast/Ohio Valley.

Last edited by Cambium; 01-08-2013 at 05:40 PM.. Reason: Added text in case link goes bad
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Old 01-08-2013, 05:06 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Old 01-08-2013, 05:18 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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The other warmest year records beat eachother by tenths of an inch, we were 1 degree warmer last year than the previous warmest year 1998. That is alarming. A full degree! That is warm and very hard to achieve!

But I do have to ask... WHY IS THE U.S SO WARM????? Give me some thoughts? Some conspiracys. I dont see these results in other countries.
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Old 01-08-2013, 05:32 PM
 
Location: Toronto
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I think in parts of Canada too.

I know southern Ontario certainly was warmer than usual.

March was slightly warmer than April in Toronto, very weird.
Very hot July too, same as in 2011.

Not sure what caused it, I like more normal temps
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Old 01-08-2013, 05:39 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Suprised nobody started this thread. So it's official now. 1998 was not the peak. Ouch. We technically cant say we been cooling since 1998 now.
Meaningless.

You can't use one year or looking at a particular peak year to claim a "cooling" or "warming" trend. Running averages are necessary. You don't need to "beat" one unusually warm year for it to be warming nor does beating the previous record mean that a cooling trend ended.
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Old 01-08-2013, 05:46 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
The other warmest year records beat eachother by tenths of an inch, we were 1 degree warmer last year than the previous warmest year 1998. That is alarming. A full degree! That is warm and very hard to achieve!

But I do have to ask... WHY IS THE U.S SO WARM????? Give me some thoughts? Some conspiracys. I dont see these results in other countries.
Every year has regional variation. Globally, it was above average but not record breaking though I think the warmest La Niña year. Perhaps a stuck jet stream pattern help keep the US warm. The most anomalous parts of the US was the middle of the country, particularly the first 7 months (July and March were off the charts for many areas). Hot weather tends to perpetatue itself via consistent high pressure pattern. The dry soil in the middle of the country leads to easier heating. Here's the global map:



State of the Climate | Global Analysis | November 2012
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Old 01-08-2013, 05:52 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Suprised nobody started this thread.
I added a link on the topic in the year summary thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/sc...-in-us.html?hp

Note from the map, light blue is -1 to +1°F. The extreme heat was concentrated in the Midwest. Interestingly, DC had slightly more days above average than Chicago but Chicago's annual average was far more above average.
I didn't realize Massachusetts (and the rest of New England as well as NY state) had a record breaking year. What I find interesting is if you look at the included map:

Record-Setting Heat Across the U.S. in 2012 - Graphic - NYTimes.com

parts of the Midwest were much more above normal than New England. Which implies that our variability is lower than the Midwest to be much closer to normal and still break a record. The hot March and July stand out more in Ann Arbor:



//www.city-data.com/forum/27655281-post76.html

than in Western Massachusetts:



though my station just missed breaking a record even though the state did.
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Old 01-08-2013, 05:55 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Meaningless.

You can't use one year or looking at a particular peak year to claim a "cooling" or "warming" trend. Running averages are necessary. You don't need to "beat" one unusually warm year for it to be warming nor does beating the previous record mean that a cooling trend ended.
When you have a peak from 13 years ago and havent past it, you arent warming "since then". Do you disagree with that? Going further when you're making new lows since that peak over a decade ago you're cooling.

This is U.S temps without 2012.

Overall look is a cooling trend. 4 new lows and 0 new highs in past 13 years before last year.



1998: 54.32
1999: 53.93
2000: 53.27
2001: 53.68
2002: 53.21
2003: 53.29
2004: 53.11
2005: 53.63
2006: 54.3
2007: 53.65
2008: 52.3
2009: 52.37
2010: 53
2011: 53.19
2012: 55.32
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Old 01-08-2013, 06:07 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
When you have a peak from 13 years ago and havent past it, you arent warming "since then". Do you disagree with that? Going further when you're making new lows since that peak over a decade ago you're cooling.
Yes I do. Or rather I disagree that warming or cooling has much of anything to do with passing a peak. I have said that many times. I don't want to hijack this thread, but I said as much in this post a while back:

Even NOAA says...Earth is Cooling

in the quoted blue graph there's about 25 years where it doesn't reach the "peak". But on average (taking say, a 10 year running mean), the trend is warming.
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Old 01-08-2013, 06:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Yes I do. Or rather I disagree that warming or cooling has much of anything to do with passing a peak. I have said that many times. I don't want to hijack this thread, but I said as much in this post a while back:

in the quoted blue graph there's about 25 years where it doesn't reach the "peak". But on average (taking say, a 10 year running mean), the trend is warming.
No You're Missing the point. I'll make it simple because its CLEARLY a down trend. Take your finger, put it on the 1998 value and run it across the screen to 2011. How does your finger move?? DOWN.

Can you run a yearly average line through those actual NOAA numbers. No cherrys, just a yearly average line..
Let me know. Thanks

Edit: You can do Exponential. Linear, Logarithmic, Polynomal, Power and moving average trend lines and they all will show the same down trend since 1998.

Last edited by Cambium; 01-08-2013 at 06:27 PM..
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