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The latest trend on the GFS is for an even more powerful storm and even colder weather than what I've been talking about previously. The previous two runs both had widespread 6-12 inches for Michigan, the 12z had persistent accumulating snow in Tennessee (the center of the ULL on that run), and the 18z has what could be described as a superstorm, composed of four distinct events within the larger event. The 18z also has 30's extending into Tallahassee and a cut-off low so large that it dominates the flow across the country. If this run verified, the breadth, duration, and intensity of this storm would be without precedent in the historical record for this late in the season. This graphic provides shows what would happen if the latest GFS run verified:
This is the most extreme scenario shown so far, and since we're more than a week out the final scenario will almost certainly differ from this and the current model consensus. However, there is consistency on two things: extreme cold and extreme snow for this late in the season.
Forget whether it verifies or not - just seeing this at all on the GFS is extraordinary.
"Fargo finally set the new record for the latest occurrence of a 50-degree day, as the temperature at Hector International Airport hit 50 degrees just before 11 a.m. and was up to 54 degrees by about noon, according to the weather service.
Prior to this year, the latest day Fargo had seen a 50-degree temperature was April 18 – a record set in 1881, the first year official weather records were kept here. The 132-year-old mark was beaten by eight days."
"Fargo and Grand Forks both surpassed the 50, and the 60 degree mark on April 26th. This is the latest 50 degree day at Fargo and Grand Forks. This ties the latest 60 degree day at Fargo, and is the second latest 60 degree day at Grand Forks."
Yep quite unusually cold this month....with the late warmth will not likely be the coldest...but almost certain to be top 3 or so. It was the highs and persistent cold high temps. Saving grace actually was the high temps as when we had days and days of 32-34 degree highs, with the april sun it was enough to melt the snow pack very slowly and enough water went into the top soil as it was slow and didnt all runoff. So easily lost half or more of the snowcover over the area before the major warmup began.
So more of the run of the mill river flooding that we are accustomed too in the valley.
Dan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
It never took this long to get to 50 degrees since records began in 1881. Thats 132 yrs worth
"Fargo finally set the new record for the latest occurrence of a 50-degree day, as the temperature at Hector International Airport hit 50 degrees just before 11 a.m. and was up to 54 degrees by about noon, according to the weather service.
Prior to this year, the latest day Fargo had seen a 50-degree temperature was April 18 – a record set in 1881, the first year official weather records were kept here. The 132-year-old mark was beaten by eight days."
"Fargo and Grand Forks both surpassed the 50, and the 60 degree mark on April 26th. This is the latest 50 degree day at Fargo and Grand Forks. This ties the latest 60 degree day at Fargo, and is the second latest 60 degree day at Grand Forks."
We can mention it till blue in face... the Upper Level Low in winter means constant snow but if conditions are right can mean snow in Spring too. It just keeps the area so cold for whoever is underneath it.
Another look at the snowfall from GFS18z for next Saturday. Higher elevation would be the safe bet this far out this late.
There is probably going to some serious record cold next week. Local meteorologists are already calling for lows in lower 40s (May record low is 38) and they are playing it safe right now...
Imagine if the winters and springs were getting colder?
Surely we couldn't in the British Isles get anything much colder? I think if we were to get anything colder it would be subzero for several months. The longest for me is 5 weeks.
The latest trend on the GFS is for an even more powerful storm and even colder weather than what I've been talking about previously. The previous two runs both had widespread 6-12 inches for Michigan, the 12z had persistent accumulating snow in Tennessee (the center of the ULL on that run), and the 18z has what could be described as a superstorm, composed of four distinct events within the larger event. The 18z also has 30's extending into Tallahassee and a cut-off low so large that it dominates the flow across the country. If this run verified, the breadth, duration, and intensity of this storm would be without precedent in the historical record for this late in the season. This graphic provides shows what would happen if the latest GFS run verified:
One of the worst aspects of today’s weather forecasting (perhaps THE worst) is what is known as “model fantasy”. This is when computer models forecast extreme events….with little logic…..based on million to one assumptions. From run to run, these wild events are forecasted all over the map, to the west, to east, to north…etc with little sense or logic. Worse, sometimes these computer generated fantasies are not just for extremely rare events (with 100…or 500 year return periods - lol)….they are for unprecedented events- events that defy logic, reason…and at times even sanity.
I would caution that machines have yet to understand what common sense is.
There will be a run of the mill upper level low over the mid part of the USA next week for a few days…it will bring some cool weather and rain showers to parts of the Ohio Valley…. before it exits on Thru or so. Beyond that - I think we are deep in fantasy land…but it is nice to dream I guess. I checked the NWS forecast for Tallahassee (I assume that NWS has both feet on the ground unlike the computers)….the coldest lows I see are low 60’s (a 30F difference between the forecast and computer fantasy). I assume the forecasted reality VS the computer generated fantasy for 6 to 12 inches of snow in Michagan and a few inches of snow in Tennessee are off by an equally large margin:
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