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I'd be curious to know how frequent snow is at high elevations in late May. Not too many weather stations that high. What's the lowest you'll think it'll stick? Here's Mt. Mansfield:
The last frost here is normally around mid April, and it's still too long - lol.
How about year-round frost .
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As far as the pattern, after this brief cool shot on the weekend it really will turn quite hot in the lower central and eastern states. Several different sources are showing 80's and 90's. If this keeps trending this way...the first official heat wave of spring might be on tap:
Coastal Connecticut has a long way to go before having the first heat wave of the Spring (June in CT is more Summer than Spring, but whatever). As for the pattern, it looks like a big cool shot is coming into the Northeast and Great Lakes, possibly with a big high-elevation snowstorm, and after that most of the East is going to get pretty hot, though it still won't be that much hotter than normal for most; perhaps 90F in the South, which would be 10F above normal - significant, but well short of record highs there. Anyway, the pattern after the first few days of June is uncertain at this point - most models previously had heat continuing for most of the East, but now about half of them have a cool pattern for the second week of June. One model run even had parts of Tennessee in for a sub-70F day on the 6th. Will that happen? Probably not, considering that it mutated into 75F on the next run , but it's a big change from the 90's it was showing previously. This is 2-3 weeks out, though, so it can and probably will change, especially considering the lack of model consensus with regards to the pattern.
Since these cool shots don't want to give up this year, I think a big cool shot for the second week of June is certainly plausible, but I wouldn't bet on anything at this point. It is certain that a wave of heat will dominate the East for the week after Memorial Day, so the main question is does it stick around after the first few days of June or does it give way to another cool shot?
Coastal Connecticut has a long way to go before having the first heat wave of the Spring (June in CT is more Summer than Spring, but whatever).
Hmmm, not sure where you got that from... but June in Ct can OFTEN see 90’s...both inland and along the coast Last June we had highs in the 90's, and just few June's ago (2008) it was near 100 F along the coast and IN the 100''s inland (in spring)....
As far as the coming spring heat wave….I think your having wishful thinking – lol. The heat wave next week shows signs of a typical spring heat wave with 90’s and high humidity…which for late May/early June will be close to 10 F above normal. NYC is forecasted to see about 83 F….normal late May/early June high is 75 – 76 F…so it will be about 7 F above normal. National Weather Service Forecast Office Climatological Data Page- New York, NY
The pattern looks to be quite warm into late spring (early June)…
Look on the bright side....the start of winter is only 6 months away
Last edited by wavehunter007; 05-24-2013 at 08:47 AM..
Hmmm, not sure where you got that from... but June in Ct can OFTEN see 90’s...both inland and along the coast Last June we had highs in the 90's, and just few June's ago (2008) it was near 100 F along the coast and IN the 100''s inland (in spring)....
That's my point - you seem to agree with my view that June is a summer month for Connecticut but then you go on about spring .
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As far as the coming spring heat wave….I think your having wishful thinking – lol. The heat wave next week shows signs of a typical spring heat wave with 90’s and high humidity…which for late May/early June will be close to 10 F above normal. NYC is forecasted to see about 83 F….normal late May/early June high is 75 – 76 F…so it will be about 7 F above normal.
I was assuming that you were using the "3+ days of 90F or hotter" definition of "heat wave"; that doesn't look likely for coastal Connecticut or NYC from what I've seen. 80's are definitely on tap for most of the Northeast for late May and early June, and if that's what you meant by "heat wave" I have to agree with you.
As for 90's being common this time of year, that is true, but I don't see much support for 3 days of 90's for coastal Connecticut and NYC for the first week of June. Heat waves may be common but they are not omnipresent - it's also common to not have a heat wave in early June. At any rate, we'll see if NYC or Bridgeport experience such a heat wave, and in the meantime I hope you enjoy the 50-degree rain that is coming to coastal Connecticut this weekend .
As for 90's being common this time of year, that is true, but I don't see much support for 3 days of 90's for coastal Connecticut and NYC for the first week of June. Heat waves may be common but they are not omnipresent - it's also common to not have a heat wave in early June. At any rate, we'll see if NYC or Bridgeport experience such a heat wave, and in the meantime I hope you enjoy the 50-degree rain that is coming to coastal Connecticut this weekend .
Not good weekend weather, but it'll be followed by dry and sunny weather (highs at least mid 70s). Since it's a short break from warmth without a frost, I don't mind. A small price to pay to get remind the extended mugginess we had for days.
Somewhere between 1.5-2 inches of rain yesterday. With more in the next couple of days. Should end the drought nicely.
As I said earlier, given the recent patterns, I'm expecting some moderate heat but no real heat waves. I doubt we'll get a summer as cool as 2009 but I still think cooler than the last few is likely.
That's my point - you seem to agree with my view that June is a summer month for Connecticut but then you go on about spring .
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You said above that June is more of a spring month in CT than a summer month ?
I showed you 90's in early June to show that is incorrect.
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Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus
I was assuming that you were using the "3+ days of 90F or hotter" definition of "heat wave"; that doesn't look likely for coastal Connecticut or NYC from what I've seen.
Yes, that is the NWS definition of heat wave...and indeed it does look like much of the East Coast including the Tri-State area (NY/NJ/CT) might see their first heat wave late next week.
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Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus
I hope you enjoy the 50-degree rain that is coming to coastal Connecticut this weekend .
I think you need to update or change your sources for weather forecasts in the United States....you seem to be getting some really strange forecasts -lol Here is the forecast for Sunday Memorial Day....60's to near 70 F in the Ct/NYC area and BONE DRY and SUNNY.
I think you need to update or change your sources for weather forecasts in the United States....you seem to be getting some really strange forecasts -lol Here is the forecast for Sunday Memorial Day....60's to near 70 F in the Ct/NYC area and BONE DRY and SUNNY.
Both my forecast and New Haven show cool and drizzle Saturday and Sunday. Only Memorial Day is mild and sunny.
For me, Saturday high of 54°F forecast, low of 40°F with rain.
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