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When I lived in Alberta one summer, the thunderstorms and rain always rolled through around 2 am. The next day would be hot and sunny. 32C/90F. Then the next night I'd be woken up at 2 am with another massive thunderstorm. Day after day for what seemed like a month I had the same pattern.
I meant what of time day. Convective rainfall should follow the diurnal cycle; peaking a few hours after solar noon. Here's another example of how this week's rain is "mixed"
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
Don't think the disturbance is exactly a front. Clearly convection:
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
But the rain formed up in the hills to the west:
WHILE HIT AND MISS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...HIGHEST RISK FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MA.
THIS IS WHERE THERE IS SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVITY IS
MOVING QUITE SLOWLY. A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD EVENT OR TWO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL VERY LOCALIZED 3+ INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES.
some type of localized factors affected where the convection formed. Tomorrow convection + shortwave may trigger rain:
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO A STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. GIVEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.
Later in the week, high pressure (rising heights) suppresses convection (and any shortwaves?)
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION WED SO AM CONTINUING WITH
DRY FORECAST. NAM SUGGESTION OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT
IS POSSIBLE BUT IS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM S COAST BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S
Thursday front may trigger rain:
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY EXPECTED THU BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN WED GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. DECENT CAPE/0-6KM SHOULD BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONT PROVIDES
FOCUS FOR LIFT.
Wow!, you guys get some detailed forecasts. Here it's typically something like " Heavy rain in the west, with a chance of showers spreading", or heating may produce afternoon showers"
There is a diurnal cycle here, particularly from about late September until the end of December. Days will often start totally clear and have towering cumulus by early/mid afternoon. Even though this is common, heavy downpours are isolated and my area only gets very brief showers, often consisting of random very large drops(1 inch). Thunder is rare in this weather, but can occur.
Don't really get much cold front rain in my area, but if there is, then thunder is common with it and skies are very dark , with a rapid temperature drop -doesn't last long though.
Warm fronts always have cumulus cloud, even when over the sea. This could perhaps be due to the shortwave you are talking about?
Hartfordd's comment regarding Oceanic rainfall, has no relevance to the nature of rainfall here, as there isn't a Oceanic type of rainfall.
^^^^ Could these be an example of short wave? Clouds from today that have been giving scattered showers. There was a front two days ago, so not frontal and at with a 16C/60F maximum for today, too cool to be purely convective. These clouds typically come with very large rain drops, and give showers that only last a minute or two.
Does the amount matter? Wouldn't days of rainfall having more bearing on how wet a climate feels.
I'd say days, or maybe even hours has more bearing. But amount makes a difference, too. A downpour feels wetter than drizzle, especially if you're outside and get stuck in it.
I'd say days, or maybe even hours has more bearing. But amount makes a difference, too. A downpour feels wetter than drizzle, especially if you're outside and get stuck in it.
But drizzle lasts longer. With a downpour the sun will be shining within a short period.
Do the photos in my post above look like clouds that are neither convectional or frontal? -they were giving brief falls, so could be considered as rain clouds.
But drizzle lasts longer. With a downpour the sun will be shining within a short period.
Not always. I was trying to compare for rainfall of the same length. Say, light sprinkly rain for an hour vs moderately heavy rain for an hour.
Quote:
Do the photos in my post above look like clouds that are neither convectional or frontal? -they were giving brief falls, so could be considered as rain clouds.
Definitely not a front, not long enough. They look convective in my experience but might have been some non-conective instability that allow it to intensify. Stark contrast in how clear the rest of the sky is.
Not always. I was trying to compare for rainfall of the same length. Say, light sprinkly rain for an hour vs moderately heavy rain for an hour.
True in that scenario, but I think the heavier the rain the shorter it would last, in most places.
Quote:
Definitely not a front, not long enough. They look convective in my experience but might have been some non-conective instability that allow it to intensify. Stark contrast in how clear the rest of the sky is.
Yep, it's a common type of cloud/precip around here, and has a significant impact on rain days, but adds little to the annual total.
My original point still stands, that Oceanic isn't a type of rainfall.
I haven't argued that it is a type of rainfall; not sure why you're repeating that in replies to my posts.
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