As much as I hate to think it, current projections show High Pressure forming over the Great Basin Nov 4th-5th meaning that the Santa Ana's will kick in once again over Southern California.
Storm Prediction Center Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 31, 2007
Quote:
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL VEER UPPER FLOW TO NELY AND BRING A DRY AIR MASS
SWD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO PORTIONS OF SRN CA. THE
RESULTING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TO SRN CA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY/D3...AND STRENGTHEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/D4. THE
EVENT WILL BE MOST CRITICAL ON SATURDAY WITH LOW RH AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
FROM SUNDAY/D5 ONWARD...MODELS DIVERGE...BUT CHANCES ARE A DRY AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SW. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT FOR SRN CA AROUND NOVEMBER
7TH/D8 WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME THUS
PREDICTABILITY APPEARS LOW THIS FAR OUT.
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I feel the need to post it this early with this much uncertainty so those who are in the affected areas can keep a close eye on their forecasts and prepare as needed. Lets hope and pray that this round or the next round go fireless.
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