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Old 01-20-2014, 07:01 AM
 
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Look at how different the GFS was 10 days ago when compared with this morning's run centered on Jan 25th.





JB was calling it BS then, and now GFS is more in sink with both Euro and Canadian


Euro has Chicago/ORD dipping down to -23F/-31C




Wisconsin even colder (obviously). Look at te 850mb forecast for Jan 27th




GFS has NYC going to around 0F/-18C

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Old 01-20-2014, 07:17 AM
 
Location: UpstateNY
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Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8. Wind chill values as low as -19. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph.
Tuesday Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 6. Wind chill values as low as -23. North wind around 7 mph.
Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -11. Wind chill values as low as -29. North wind around 10 mph.

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Old 01-20-2014, 08:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Tomorrow night is not an interior snowstorm. Closer you are to coast the better unless you live in West Virginia or Virginia or parts of mid atlantic.

Don't be surprised to see a 10" snowfall near the coast somewhere including on Long Island

Temps in teens and 20s = high snowfall ratios so even 1/4" liquid falling from sky means 5" snowfall total.

Starts Tuesday morning in Mid Atlantic clear by Wed morning in southern New England.

Clipper comes down and exits the coast while a Low pressure system devlops and moves northeast. While this isn't a "blizzard" or monster storm there could be areas with blizzard conditions where winds gust 30mph.

Hand it to Joe Bastardi for seeing a potential. I'll be wrong if there's widespread 6"+. The snowfalls are enhanced from lifting near the coast and a tight gradient.

Also... Case in point about the models. The potential was there weeks ago but the details aren't known until hours before. Basically the energies came into the location where data was pulled and put into the models and that's why overnight they all trended juicier. Better data went into them yesterday
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Old 01-20-2014, 09:00 AM
 
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Lake effect snow watch now issued for Cook County and Northwest Indiana. Morning news said Illinois side may see several inches, while Northwest Indiana between 6-10 inches

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Old 01-20-2014, 10:50 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Temps drop after midnight tonight so we should expect teens (F) with snow tomorrow.

It's not a Get bread and water type snow, its more a Get home and be safe type.

Early school dismissal or closure likely.

I pieced together a few NWS office Snow total forecast. NWS Binghamton didn't update yet.
Looks like NWS Upton more bullish then Boston for southern zones.

These are snow totals they are thinking as of right now.

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Old 01-20-2014, 11:05 AM
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Location: Western Massachusetts
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when will the snow hit western MA? doesn't like much at least, but I'll need to do a long drive.
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Old 01-20-2014, 11:42 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
when will the snow hit western MA? doesn't like much at least, but I'll need to do a long drive.
Yup, not your storm. Don't be surprised if you get nothing or 1-2". Should be afternoon start time for you.

"Using JUST our in-house forecast model and accounting for a GREATER than 10:1 ratio you come up with double digit"

https://twitter.com/MascoFromABC2/st...34677944029185


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Old 01-20-2014, 11:50 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Welcome to the party EURO.

"New ECMWF: late to the party, but trending toward major I-95 hit tomorrow. 6-8" DC thru BOS."

https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/statu...33800017477633

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Old 01-20-2014, 11:55 AM
 
25,024 posts, read 27,870,912 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Yup, not your storm. Don't be surprised if you get nothing or 1-2". Should be afternoon start time for you.

"Using JUST our in-house forecast model and accounting for a GREATER than 10:1 ratio you come up with double digit"

https://twitter.com/MascoFromABC2/st...34677944029185

They just canceled the winter storm watch alert for me. Guess I'll be getting little or nothing. Good
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Old 01-20-2014, 12:02 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,401 posts, read 74,915,183 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theunbrainwashed View Post
They just canceled the winter storm watch alert for me. Guess I'll be getting little or nothing. Good
Gorgeous storm track forecast for me...and it sounds like for you too since you don't want much. lol

HPC Storm Track forecast. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif





Warnings are up

Current Watches and Warnings Map

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