Winter 2013-14 Thread — Northern Hemisphere (snow, warm, ice, record)

[Mac15]

Originally Posted by Adi from the Brunswicks

Waiting for alex985 to post in excitement.

Of sleety crap? Got no!!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Warm 22F here. First time iin 4 days.

And let their be light... Seeing signs of a release and seasonable temps again for here. But its long range and my rule of thumb is not to jump on and believe the opposite of current pattern until we get closer.

And the rule of thumb has worked...

Data for Northern CT (BDL). Past few runs back to No end in sight...

I was ready to jump on those few runs that showed a change to warmer temps in the long run.

I remembered my general rule of thumb. In a cold pattern, don't believe the long range warm pattern it shows, vise versa in a warm pattern don't believe the cold pattern it shows in the "long range" until we get closer or it actually happens..

So now we're back to the cold pattern in the long range which is more believable right now.

Latest GFS says we stay below freezing till mid February. and another arctic blast around the 30th and 7th.

And look at the precip column! That is A LOT of snow days!

[Cambium]

Radar and temps. Here comes a little more snow again. Same as yesterday. Just Trace to 3 inches possible. It's almost strange seeing temps in the 20s/30s around here now. lol Some folks going to get light rain. Long Island already in 40s!



HPC Short Range Discussion

301 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2014

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 27 2014 - 12Z Wed Jan 29 2014

***Another round of bitterly cold weather***

***Winter storm for the Deep South and Southeast U.S.***

***Dry in the Southwest and light rain for the Northwest***


A very strong cold front will be bringing frigid conditions back to the
central and eastern U.S. for the beginning of the work week. The airmass
and the associated surface high pressure with it is literally coming from
the North Pole and heading nearly due south into the central U.S. by
Tuesday! Widespread subzero lows are expected north of the Ohio River by
this time, and subfreezing highs are expected well into the Deep South.

This front will reach the Gulf of Mexico and develop a wave of low
pressure along it. Moisture flowing north over the boundary will create
interesting weather to say the least for the Deep South and into the
Southeast U.S. for Tuesday and Wednesday. A band of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain is expected to materialize by Tuesday afternoon near the
Central Gulf Coast, and become heavier over eastern North Carolina and
into South Carolina with the very cold air in place. This rare winter
storm will make many people who love snow very happy.

For California and the Inter-Mountain West, a much quieter weather pattern
will prevail for the next few days as high pressure stays in charge. This
is providing pleasant temperatures for this time of year. Signs of change
will be arriving to the Pacific Northwest by Monday night with showers and
high elevation snow as the upper level ridge finally begins to break down
and allow moist flow from the Pacific to move inland.

D. Hamrick

[Cambium]

Forecasted Minimum temps tomorrow and Minimum Wind Chill Value next 24hrs

Looks like single digit lows north of Merritt in CT except some spots in the valley and near or below zero wind chills tomorrow.

[Cambium]

take a look at the temp drop in Dayton Ohio and Indianapolis, Indiana since midnight.

[ilovemycomputer90]

Unusual winter storm warning in Myrtle Beach, SC:

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR A WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET. FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET INLAND AND SLEET
AND SNOW HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO THE COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES....BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT CLOSER TO THE COAST.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WINTRY MIX MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW...
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST WHEN GREATEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
OCCUR.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* IMPACTS...VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
ROADS BECOME SNOW OR ICE COVERED. BRIDGES WILL BE ICY AND
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS. THERE MAY BE LENGTHY POWER INTERRUPTIONS
AS WINDS GUST TO 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

Winter Storm Watch in Northern Florida:

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY IMPACT MOST
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE A MIX OF SNOW
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION TO
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TO SLEET THEN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...STORM TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE
THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.
TOTAL SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME
DIFFICULT AS ROADS AND BRIDGES BECOME ICY. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE ICE ACCUMULATION OCCURS.

Originally Posted by Mac15

I would say even the cold lovers will be getting sick of cold now.

Haha absolutely not. It can stay cold all the way through April.

[chicagogeorge]

^^


I'm good until about the first week of March. Then I want warm temps to spring up.

GFS extended range 10-15 days temp anomalies pretty much bottom out, run consistency



GEFS ensemble mean looks about same as GFS in 10-15 day range.



Sorry mild weather lovers




Lows tonight from-26C to -31C, with wind chills as low as -43C across the metro area.







Check this out:

Snowing Every Other Day This Winter...Literally!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
738 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 /838 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014/

...IT IS SNOWING EVERY OTHER DAY...LITERALLY!...

THE WINTER OF 2013-2014 HAS HAD MANY EYE-OPENING NUMBERS THAT
REFLECT THE HARSHNESS OF THIS SEASON. ONE STATISTIC THAT CAN
FURTHER QUANTIFY THIS IS SNOWFALL FREQUENCY. IN THE PAST 50
DAYS...DECEMBER 8TH-JANUARY 26TH...CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD HAVE HAD 27
DAYS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...THAT IS AT LEAST ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE. THAT IS A LITTLE OVER HALF THE DAYS IN THE PAST SEVEN
WEEKS HAVING SEEN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL!

------------------------------------------------------------------
.CHICAGO

IN CHICAGO SUCH A STRETCH HAS ONLY OCCURRED FOUR OTHER TIMES SINCE
1884.

50-DAY STRETCH ACCUMULATING SNOW DAYS TOTAL SNOW
------------------------------------------------------------
JAN 24-MAR 14 1962 27 20.0 IN.
DEC 21 1969-FEB 8 1970 27 35.8 IN.
JAN 12-MAR 2 1978 28 47.4 IN.
DEC 25 1978-FEB 12 1979 28 59.9 IN.
DEC 8 2013-JAN 27 2014 27 46.9 IN.

CHICAGO HAS SEEN 35 OF THE PAST 50 DAYS /70 PERCENT!/ WITH AT LEAST
A TRACE OF SNOW. SUCH A STRETCH WITH REGARD TO A TRACE OR MORE OF
SNOW HAS ONLY OCCURRED 13 OTHER TIMES...WITH THE LAST BEING DEC 20 2010-FEB 7 2011.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH ALSO INCLUDES A FEW DAYS WITH
RAIN...CHICAGO HAS HAD 30 OF THE PAST 50 DAYS WITH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...THAT IS AT LEAST 0.01 OF AN INCH. THAT HAS ONLY
OCCURRED 10 OTHER TIMES...WITH THE LAST BEING MAY 4-JUN 22 2001.

------------------------------------------------------------------
.ROCKFORD

IN ROCKFORD THIS HAS OCCURRED ONLY ONE OTHER TIME SINCE 1905.


50-DAY STRETCH ACCUMULATING SNOW DAYS TOTAL SNOW
------------------------------------------------------------
DEC 22 1993-FEB 9 1994 29 24.3 IN.
DEC 8 2013-JAN 27 2014 27 42.0 IN.

ROCKFORD HAS SEEN 36 OF THE PAST 50 DAYS WITH AT LEAST A TRACE OF
SNOW. SUCH A STRETCH WITH REGARD TO A TRACE OR MORE OF SNOW HAS ONLY OCCURRED 7 OTHER TIMES...WITH THE LAST BEING DEC 3 2008-JAN 21 2009.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display...99947&source=0


Snowfall totals this season as of today:

O'Hare:47.5 inches/120.7cm
Midway:49.5 inches/125.7cm

[nei]

NWS says light freezing rain but it's well below freezing (26F). What's going on?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

NWS says light freezing rain but it's well below freezing (26F). What's going on?

Look at the 850s and 925s. Layer above the surface is/was above freezing but as the front moves through everything will drop below and support snow if moisture still around.

SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis

Here was the 925mb temps at 7am. Warm air aloft pushing northward because of a strong southwest wind ahead of the front

Some Surface areas stayed below freezing hence the ice.



Here's the actual Balloon Data sounding from Albany at 7am. You can see the little warm layer aloft but then temps drop back below freezing at the surface and 2000' over Albany area.



Use Twister Data to find a spot closer to you with the RAP model.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php...&archive=false

[Cambium]

Another look from this morning. Purple line = Freezing temp at 4000 feet. So anyone south of that purple line was above freezing at 4000'.

But look at the temps at the surface, many were below freezing still. Arrows indicate winds at the surface. Moisture didn't start moving in until temps warmed up a bit.