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Where these 2 meet is when we get exploding storms (aka Blizzards in Winter)
And we must consider the fact that this northern jet is driving pure arctic air into the U.S so the cold air is prime, and now the subjet is ready itself.
Now we wait.
A little touch of hint... GFS last 4 runs shows a possible big blizzard for someone around the 12-13th time frame.
Without a phase of the Jets you don't normally get storms to blow up. And of course we need other factors to fall in place too.
Things look juicy for big-time cold and snow in the bulk of December, but I'd like to point out an excellent example of how any kind of wintry weather in the South, even in winter, is feeble and fleeting. After the cold snap that sent temperatures in the teens and twenties, how about a 61F morning with high humidity in the first week of meteorological winter? That isn't wintry, festive, or even seasonal - that's just pathetic:
Also notice how the reliably seasonable cold nights and cold days are confined to the far north of the lower 48. Now, for the South I think TWC is a bit too warm for their forecast, and even if they are right cooler air will be coming in pretty quickly anyway, but my point is that any warmth and humidity of such a magnitude, no matter how fleeting, is a blight upon the winter season.
This is a good illustration of my basic worldview concerning American winters - in the South and to a lesser extent most of the country, warmth/mildness in winter is the rule, and wintry weather is the exception; during a cold winter you get frequent exceptions but still plenty of mildness in-between those spells, and during a warm winter the exceptions are few and far between. It's a gradient, of course; in a place like New Orleans there is almost never any wintry weather, and in a place like Chicago you still get mildness even in the coldest of winters but the mildness tends to be...well, mild in intensity (c.f. 2010-11). Once you get significantly north of the 40th parallel things start to change - in places like Minneapolis, a warm winter will still feature wintry weather but with plenty of mild and snowless interludes, but during a cold winter wintry weather dominates the entire season. It's only when you get into the Northwoods and many areas near the Canadian border that you get wintry weather predominating even during warm winters, with no mild interludes at all during cold winters.
That's why I have to laugh at attempts to extend the humid continental climate classification further south than it already is because winters are so cold south of Chicago or something - give me a break . Anyway, I don't want to derail this too much into a Koeppen brawl, so I'd like to point out that the southern half or so of the United States is susceptible to warm and humid nights even in the middle of winter, and even in a "brutal neverending winter" like 2010-11. A lot of it depends on your baseline of what winter should be like, I suppose, though I don't see how humid nights in the 60's could be considered winter-like; in most (or at least much) of the four-seasons part of the world most nights in summer are cooler and/or less humid than what Memphis is forecast to get to kick off winter. For some personal perspective, in my dream climate a night like that would constitute unprecedented warmth and humidity in the middle of summer, and such a temperature in December would break the monthly record high by 21F.
Things look juicy for big-time cold and snow in the bulk of December, but I'd like to point out an excellent example of how any kind of wintry weather in the South, even in winter, is feeble and fleeting. After the cold snap that sent temperatures in the teens and twenties, how about a 61F morning with high humidity in the first week of meteorological winter? That isn't wintry, festive, or even seasonal - that's just pathetic:
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I agree. There's other seasons for that kind of temp. But let me point out how Dallas has been this month..
They were near 90 on the 17th and above normal mid November then take a look... crash. Snow in Texas and temps have been below normal for 8 days in a row now. Look at the High temps . Max temps are around what the normal lows are for this time of year within those 8 days.
So while 60s may appear again, winter has stayed in the deep south for quite some time and its not even winter.
Just judging by this alone you can see that it wasn't a slow trend down. That was arctic air just plunging into the U.S. A trend that could be here to stay through the winter. Some interesting times ahead
This was the 7am temps (not real feel) and departure from normal. Single digits in Iowa.
Cold for sure. Was only expecting about 12 last night according to forecasts. Took the trash out last night from Turkey Day activities and noticed not a cloud in sight and stars shining bright. Knew that wasn't a good thing to see even with the wind from the SE. At 8am this morning we bottomed out at -3. My Yorkies didn't want to stay out long when I popped the door open for them. Local NWS is saying a short warm up mid week and then expecting a pummeling of Arctic air coming down again next weekend. The warm up consists of being in the mid 30's during the day.
The typical cold spot but Wow 25 below zero now? That's what the Euro says today. That has to be some record.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthernMoose
My Yorkies didn't want to stay out long when I popped the door open for them. Local NWS is saying a short warm up mid week and then expecting a pummeling of Arctic air coming down again next weekend. The warm up consists of being in the mid 30's during the day.
My Labrador is loving this stuff with me. She wants to go for longer walks when its cold. And yeah, the "warmups" are not the warmups we've been accustom to over the past several years.
Like someone said before, this is feeling like the classic type winter.
There is a cold blast headed out west this week. Lower Midwest and the deep south will warm up back to normal, and so will the northeast. I wonder what will happen if the cold front is exceptionally strong and freezing lows hit San Fransisco.
Euro, GEM, GFS, and GFS operational in 5 day increments
BUT the Euro long range
Quote:
Long-Range Into Christmas Week and Western Snowstorm
November 29, 2013; 3:09 PM
This is may latest interpretation of the ECMWF weekly long-range model.
I think the model is not warm enough across the Midwest/Eastern states for mid-December based on the projected phase of the Arctic Oscillation and the PNA. I do agree that the core of the cold should continue to hang out across the Canadian Prairies.
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. Anyway, I don't want to derail this too much into a Koeppen brawl, so I'd like to point out that the southern half or so of the United States is susceptible to warm and humid nights even in the middle of winter, and even in a "brutal neverending winter" like 2010-11. A lot of it depends on your baseline of what winter should be like, I suppose, though I don't see how humid nights in the 60's could be considered winter-like; in most (or at least much) of the four-seasons part of the world most nights in summer are cooler and/or less humid than what Memphis is forecast to get to kick off winter. For some personal perspective, in my dream climate a night like that would constitute unprecedented warmth and humidity in the middle of summer, and such a temperature in December would break the monthly record high by 21F.
. Max temps are around what the normal lows are for this time of year within those 8 days. 
