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Most people forget that in terms of climatology places south of 40 latitude in the USA see only infrequent snow on average.
I have lived in the Tri-State area (NY/NJ/CT) as well, and when you really think about it, how often is the snow before late December in places like New Brunswick, Trenton, NYC, New Haven...etc? I think we need to remember that the real snow season starts in late, not early December.
This statement is not true for cities just immediately south of the 40th Parallel, and in the interior continental united states, like Indianapolis,Indiana, Denver, Colorado, or areas south of Dayton, Ohio, all three of these cities receive regular snowfalls during the winter months and sometimes get significant winter season snowfalls in some years.
Another thick frost this morning. Showery weather expected tonight through Friday. Perhaps some wintry precipitation this weekend along with much cooler temperatures.
Sunday night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around -2. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Rain or freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 6. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -2. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
They have been horrible in predicting long range as of late. Compare their forecast with they pattern potential that our local met office is picking up for the winter in the graphic below.
This was Bastardi's December forecast issued on Nov 12th (left), Nov 26th (middle), and on the right is the latest CFSV2 for the rest of month
Can we get that storm track to move up a couple of hundred miles toward Chicago please!!
Hard freeze in SoCal next Monday
What I don't understand (according to the CFS prediction) is how can a place be significantly below average, and then not even 150-200 miles to the SE it's well above average, for the rest of the month? It looks like a stalling cold front, which doesn't seem possible for a whole month and north of the Gulf. I would understand if it were to stall in central FL because that happens often, but in Mississippi....for a whole month? Or maybe I'm reading the map wrong again....it just seems highly unlikely. The gradients are way too tight for an overall monthly outlook.
What I don't understand (according to the CFS prediction) is how can a place be significantly below average, and then not even 150-200 miles to the SE it's well above average, for the rest of the month? It looks like a stalling cold front, which doesn't seem possible for a whole month and north of the Gulf. I would understand if it were to stall in central FL because that happens often, but in Mississippi....for a whole month? Or maybe I'm reading the map wrong again....it just seems highly unlikely. The gradients are way too tight for an overall monthly outlook.
Yeah I've been confused by these forecast models as well. I expect arctic air to be moderated as it heads east, but I would still expect more significant below average conditions in the Eastern US than forecasts suggest. Perhaps someone can offer an explanation about these models for the ignorant among us.
Yeah I've been confused by these forecast models as well. I expect arctic air to be moderated as it heads east, but I would still expect more significant below average conditions in the Eastern US than forecasts suggest. Perhaps someone can offer an explanation about these models for the ignorant among us.
And it's been a common theme with these maps, well below average for MS but AL, GA and FL remain WAYYY above average?
And it's been a common theme with these maps, well below average for MS but AL, GA and FL remain WAYYY above average?
I could see MS being slightly more prone to cold snaps than AL or GA: with it being further west, it can be exposed to more cold air with the position the jet stream will usually dip. Just imagine a sinusoidal wave superimposed on North America with all the cold air behind the curve coming down from Canada and through the plains states and warmer, moist gulf air to the south and east. Such a setup can certainly create large temperature gradients in relatively small geographical distances. Granted, it's probably not the case that this would so disproportionately favor MS versus AL or GA all the time, but still it's far more likely than AL and GA getting the cold snaps while MS stays warm.
Even up here, snow more than an inch or two usually doesn't happen until after mid December.
Average date to get an inch or more of snow in Hartford, CT is December 3rd. That's the average. That means northern CT sees an inch or more of snow before and after that date. How can you be after mid month?
Boston is Dec 9th.
Just like seeing snow in November isn't rare, getting over an inch beginning of December sure isn't especially for interior Northeast. Data doesn't lie that's what's great about it. You don't need memory for it.
I could see MS being slightly more prone to cold snaps than AL or GA: with it being further west, it can be exposed to more cold air with the position the jet stream will usually dip. Just imagine a sinusoidal wave superimposed on North America with all the cold air behind the curve coming down from Canada and through the plains states and warmer, moist gulf air to the south and east. Such a setup can certainly create large temperature gradients in relatively small geographical distances. Granted, it's probably not the case that this would so disproportionately favor MS versus AL or GA all the time, but still it's far more likely than AL and GA getting the cold snaps while MS stays warm.
That's true, and it does happen from time to time that MS gets a cold snap but it usually happens only for about 2-3 days on average and then cold air makes its way east. But for that pattern to remain for an entire month? Highly unlikely. I just don't see how for a whole month Jackson, TN is well below average while Knoxville is well above?
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