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On the flip side.... next week cant come soon enough!!
GFS00z shows a system that bombs out off the coast with a neg tilted digging trough with tons of cold air.. Shows Interior snow with some good higher elevation accumulations.(not picked up on map)
NWS Maine acknowledges this. Of course conservative but the general thought is there. It's only 1 run, nothing to believe yet.
Loving the pattern change coming up!
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS TRIGGERS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN EAST COAST LOW ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BEFORE RAPIDLY BRINGING THE "BOMBING" SYSTEM UP THE
COAST. THIS SCENARIO EVENTUALLY BRINGS A 986 MB STORM THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS AND A COLD
RAIN ELSEWHERE. THIS FEATURE IS STILL A WEEK AWAY AND THERE IS
PLENTY OF MODEL DISCONTINUITY AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR
HOWEVER...AS IT WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON.
IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THE FLOOD GATES WILL BE OPEN TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH WIDESPREAD KILLING FROSTS TO REACH THE COASTLINE
Clipped a paragraph from MEG's forecast discussion:
A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE
AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
FIRST FROST OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME IF THEY REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN.
Can this be right? Geez look at how large the anomalies are in the Deep South
Yup... Wow. 850mb temp anomalies Wednesday the 24th. Purples r 10-16° below normal at 4000' which shift to Mid Atlantic over time. Then it doesn't warmup after words either. Another cold shot at the end of the month.
This map says that greens and yellows will be above normal for this time of year at that level. Blues and purples below normal. This of course translates down to the surface also.
Clipped a paragraph from MEG's forecast discussion:
A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE
AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
FIRST FROST OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME IF THEY REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN.
Thanks! I love seeing discussions from other areas.
If you guys want to read or paste a clip from a discussion, visit your local NWS page and find the forecast discussion. If you don't know it, use this map. NOAA National Weather Service
Click on your location.
Left hand side click "forecast discussion"
Make sure you "turn glossary off" before pasting in here.
Looks like a very mild 63F morning low at Sable Island, Nova Scotia.
Nice temp map as usual Cambium.
Thanks.
Government shutdown is over! Climate and Weather Links are back up and running now. Here's NWS Maine's discussion and preview. They show leaf color comparison and explain why. Bangor, Maine no freeze yet!
Yup... Wow. 850mb temp anomalies Wednesday the 24th. Purples r 10-16° below normal at 4000' which shift to Mid Atlantic over time. Then it doesn't warmup after words either. Another cold shot at the end of the month.
This map says that greens and yellows will be above normal for this time of year at that level. Blues and purples below normal. This of course translates down to the surface also.
Latest GFS12z map for Saturday evening and Tuesday morning.
Fronts coming through. Troughs digging. Snow for Minnesota and Wisonsin as well as high elevations of the Appalacians. The beginning of the pattern.
The blue line is the freezing line at 4000' (typically the rain/snow line in winter months especially). Light blue lines showing -3°C at that level which will support snow down further. Snow accumulation maps show this.
The green blobs are where the moisture is for that time frame. Should be snow showers here and there around the lakes especially at night when surface temps drop.
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