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The Danube freezed over in Budapest and Belgrade last winter when they got 5 nights around -15C to -25C, so it goes surprisingly fast. The river Aura here in Turku freezes over in a few short days despite having a very strong current.
The Baltic Sea freezed over almost completely in 1987 when temps plummeted to -30C. But keep in mind that the higher the salinity of the water the lower the temp must be. Tap water starts to freeze at -0.01C, but the Atlantic needs a high air temp of at least -2C to even start to freeze, The Dead Sea -20C.
It doesn't take long here for ponds and lakes to freeze over - smaller lakes will develop a layer of ice after one hard freeze, and larger lakes will start freezing over after a couple or so. Ditto for canals - they freeze over after just a few freezes, and they don't have to be that harsh.
Rivers are harder to freeze over as many rivers are fast-flowing and can only freeze over if the river levels are very low. The river here froze over in December 2010 but it only developed a thin layer of ice - because the river is so fast flowing, and it only froze over thinly because the levels were so low. I suppose the urban heat island played a part too, as the river froze over more thickly out of the city. Probably the first time since 1963 that it froze over, so it takes some very cold and prolonged weather for that to occur.
The Danube freezed over in Budapest and Belgrade last winter when they got 5 nights around -15C to -25C, so it goes surprisingly fast. The river Aura here in Turku freezes over in a few short days despite having a very strong current.
The Baltic Sea freezed over almost completely in 1987 when temps plummeted to -30C. But keep in mind that the higher the salinity of the water the lower the temp must be. Tap water starts to freeze at -0.01C, but the Atlantic needs a high air temp of at least -2C to even start to freeze, The Dead Sea -20C.
Well this winter the sea temperature got to 6.4c at March which I think is pretty respectable for the atlantic near Northern Ireland.
I'm always impressed by how thickly Lake Malaren in Stockholm freezes over, even though its winters aren't that cold.
This is March 2006, nearly April:
Mälaren is actually a shallow lake with a canal, so no wonder it freezes over. The max depth of the lake is 64 meters. And the March of 2006 was one of the coldest Marches ever, with a mean temp of -4.0C at Stockholm Bromma...
Yeah, neither do I. I've heard that the warmup will be the most dramatic at latitudes between 55 and 75 N, so hard to believe also that Chicago would warm up more than Northern Finland or Canada.
Maybe it has to do with the idea that continental locations will warm moreso than coastal areas.
I have a problem with the time frames that these models are giving, not that Co2 wont cause additional warming. It will. How much and in how long of a time period is the question.
Last time were had similar levels of Co2 was during the Pliocene around 3.5 million years ago. Actually, it was probably a bit less around 375ppm. What is intriguing is that at that time global temps were 3C higher than today.... Here is what the August vegetation looked liked
and current August global vegetation
Notice the lack in permafrost zones over the high northern latitude during the Pliocene. If humans are supposed to put an addition 400-700 ppm of Co2 in the atmosphere by 2100, how much will nature add to that with the permafrost melt? That is if Co2 is that strong of a driver in global temps.
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