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Old 08-01-2013, 07:25 AM
 
Location: Finland
24,257 posts, read 20,792,198 times
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The FMI released a while ago their estimates how the climate will change and what the average temps will be due to global warming. The effects can already be seen today, when springs have warmen up by 2C since 1908, and the whole year 1C. The trees burst their leaves on average 12 days earlier than they did in 1900. The Finnish army at Suomenlinna fortress outside Helsinki surrendered to the Russians on 3 May 1808 on the ice of the Gulf of Finland, something that is completely impossible today. Even though the winter was cold in 2013, the sea ice was dangerously frail already on 16 March. If it wasn't because of the record cold winters of 1985 and 1987, the yearly mean temp has risen constantly after WWII.

The 2031-2060 normals are probably the last one I'll experience, and they show some surprising results. We will retain our snowy winters, unlike Southern Sweden, the late springs will warmen up more than early autumn, and the precipitation will be skewed up towards autumn even more. Due to the strength of the sun, May will be much warmer than September. Some inland locations will even lose their seasonal lag in favor of a seasonal lead, like in Moscow. Average Julys will be similar to UHI London ones, maybe even warmer, as already the 2001-2011 Julys had an avg high of 23.7C. Due to the warmened Gulf of Finland, Helsinki's late autumns will warm up considerably, and white Christmases will become increasingly rare.

This graph is based on the A1B climate warming scenario, and represents an average year in 2045. The yearly mean temp in Helsinki Airport is 1.8C higher than it is today.




Give your thoughts and comments, and if you have similar predictions, post them, please.
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Old 08-01-2013, 07:25 AM
 
Location: Buxton UK
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I doubt it. I think those average will in fact be cooler.
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Old 08-01-2013, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Buxton UK
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Buxton from 1971-2000 (it is warmer now but....)



Buxton from 2031-2060... summers are cooler and wetter, following recent trends, and winters are colder and drier.

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Old 08-01-2013, 07:37 AM
 
Location: Kharkiv, Ukraine
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Weak winters. Real Helsinki is A- climate for me, it's only B.
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Old 08-01-2013, 07:41 AM
 
Location: Yorkshire, England
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Hmm. I'm not going to pretend I know more about Finnish climate predictions than the FMI, but that 2045 Helsinki climate looks very liveable to me, if the winters are still perhaps a few weeks too long - B. Why do they think late spring will warm up more than the rest of the year?
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Old 08-01-2013, 07:43 AM
 
Location: Finland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MeteoMan View Post
I doubt it. I think those average will in fact be cooler.
Well, predictions are predictions, but these were made by professional meteorologists. Also keep in mind that we have that polluted algae-filled low-oxygen dump called the Gulf of Finland next to us, which will be ice-free even more often. You have the cool Atlantic as your neighbor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ben86 View Post
Hmm. I'm not going to pretend I know more about Finnish climate predictions than the FMI, but that 2045 Helsinki climate looks very liveable to me, if the winters are still perhaps a few weeks too long - B. Why do they think late spring will warm up more than the rest of the year?
Two factors: the amount of sunshine and less icy/cold waters of the Gulf of Finland which hampers spring warming as it does today. If the Gulf is ice-free in March, the water warmup will be much earlier. When you include the faster melt of the snowpack, the soil will warm up more rapidly as well. And on average Helsinki gets 287 hours of sunshine in May and 150 hours in September, so sunshine definitely plays a part. November and December will warm up considerably, as the sea will remain warmer, the mean temp in November at Helsinki Airport is estimated to be 2.4C warmer than it is on the 1981-2010 normals.

Last edited by Ariete; 08-01-2013 at 07:52 AM..
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Old 08-01-2013, 08:26 AM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,770 posts, read 8,593,278 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariete View Post
Average Julys will be similar to UHI London ones, maybe even warmer
That July is cooler than Heathrow (mean 18.8C). London's July mean in the UHI is almost 20C.

With a 2C warming by 2050 (which is total nonsense), London would have average highs of 10-11C in winter and 23-26C in summer. Lows would range from 4C in January to 16C in July and August at Heathrow, and from 5-6C in Jan to 17-18C in Jul/Aug in the centre.

Last edited by B87; 08-01-2013 at 08:38 AM..
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Old 08-01-2013, 08:34 AM
 
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It is quite decent, B
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Old 08-01-2013, 08:35 AM
 
Location: North West Northern Ireland.
20,694 posts, read 21,043,917 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariete View Post
The FMI released a while ago their estimates how the climate will change and what the average temps will be due to global warming. The effects can already be seen today, when springs have warmen up by 2C since 1908, and the whole year 1C. The trees burst their leaves on average 12 days earlier than they did in 1900. The Finnish army at Suomenlinna fortress outside Helsinki surrendered to the Russians on 3 May 1808 on the ice of the Gulf of Finland, something that is completely impossible today. Even though the winter was cold in 2013, the sea ice was dangerously frail already on 16 March. If it wasn't because of the record cold winters of 1985 and 1987, the yearly mean temp has risen constantly after WWII.

The 2031-2060 normals are probably the last one I'll experience, and they show some surprising results. We will retain our snowy winters, unlike Southern Sweden, the late springs will warmen up more than early autumn, and the precipitation will be skewed up towards autumn even more. Due to the strength of the sun, May will be much warmer than September. Some inland locations will even lose their seasonal lag in favor of a seasonal lead, like in Moscow. Average Julys will be similar to UHI London ones, maybe even warmer, as already the 2001-2011 Julys had an avg high of 23.7C. Due to the warmened Gulf of Finland, Helsinki's late autumns will warm up considerably, and white Christmases will become increasingly rare.

This graph is based on the A1B climate warming scenario, and represents an average year in 2045. The yearly mean temp in Helsinki Airport is 1.8C higher than it is today.




Give your thoughts and comments, and if you have similar predictions, post them, please.
Loving the weather for the summer but hating the weather for the winter I don't like it when it cools down. Met office have released date for upto 2010 period and to me it has cooled down but they insist not.
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Old 08-01-2013, 08:36 AM
 
Location: Finland
24,257 posts, read 20,792,198 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
That July is cooler than Heathrow (mean 18.8C). London's July mean in the UHI is almost 20C.
Heathrow has an average of 18.6C according to the Met Office. But whatever, I wasn't going after a heated comparison between London and Helsinki, just remembered the London high by heart and took that as an example.
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