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Note that there has been strong cooling in the East Pacific, associated with the strong “Upwelling” phase of the Kelvin wave and strong sub-surface warming in the western-central Pacific associated with its “Downwelling” phase. This strong Oceanic Kelvin wave is the reason why today’s SST anomaly snap-shot map has the appearance of a strong La Niña, but is just the result of processes occurring in the Pacific Ocean at sub-seasonal time scales.
The current Kelvin wave in the Pacific Ocean has achieved the same strength as the one that preceded the 1997 Super El Niño event. This is an extremely rare feat but there still has to be a number of things to happen before we can say we are headed towards a strong El Niño. We need to see the continuation of strong westerly winds near the Equator over the Central Pacific to keep the momentum forward.
Not all El Ninos are alike. It depends at where the positive SST's are, and what magnitude the anomalies are. I've read that El Ninos usually bring colder and drier conditions to Northern Europe.
By the end of the summer we are likely to see the a weak El Nino
If this is the case, it is likely that we are going to have a cooler than normal summer over CONUS
El Nino is off course very important for the affected areas, bringing rain to the southwestern US and drought to Autralia and Indonesia.
No link between El Nino and the weather in Norway has been proven, according to Norwegian meteorologists. El Niño - met.no
well, this is the big moment for the extreme AGW-scenarios. if the global temperature rises by 0.2C during this event, i will become a "beliver".
That's nonsense, wait for a couple decades (3 decades maybe?) to become a believer. I personally don't understand why scientists would keep up with this global warming if it wasn't happening.
El Nino is off course very important for the affected areas, bringing rain to the southwestern US and drought to Autralia and Indonesia.
No link between El Nino and the weather in Norway has been proven, according to Norwegian meteorologists. El Niño - met.no
Last time I heard for Finland that "in winter a possible minimal vague effect, in summer no effect".
Not all El Ninos are alike. It depends at where the positive SST's are, and what magnitude the anomalies are. I've read that El Ninos usually bring colder and drier conditions to Northern Europe.
By the end of the summer we are likely to see the a weak El Nino
If this is the case, it is likely that we are going to have a cooler than normal summer over CONUS
Nice! Relatively warm ocean temperatures and relatively cool air temperatures are the best possible combination in this region.
I thought El Nino's have minimal impact on US East Coast summer temperatures, except reduced rainfall due to reduced tropical storms.
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