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This update is not the only one showing this type of setup. I would say "as of right now", 60% of long range predictions showing cold and snowy for East
Thank god I will be in Thailand for the first half of winter. I will be lying on a beach in 30C+ temperatures instead of enduring cold and gloomy crap here. Will be the first time i've been somewhere hot during winter time
Would the Great Lakes being warmer than last year lead to more lake effect snow, because there would be less/later freezing, and more percipitable water. Especially considering August and Sept. are suppose to be above average
Good timing on this thread as Paulie P's blog today mentions winter. lol
Headline Grabber!
Quote:
Here is a brief outlook for the winter. I am not going to elaborate anymore at this time. Our official winter forecast will be out in late September. This is a general overview that we are seeing right now. The highlight graphic is not my traditional highlight graphic. The blue area is where I think above-normal snowfall is possible. I did not put a below or normal area, but that does not mean there cannot be those areas.
I mentioned back in the spring that trying to pick out the right analogs would be a difficult task this year. After a very strong El Nino, very warm PDO lasting through summer and now exceptionally warm waters in the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, overall SST anomalies have taken center stage. We are anticipating a warm overall fall, with good confidence. Even the Great Lakes water temperatures should remain warmer than normal into early winter, setting up for a very good lake-effect snow season. We believe that there will be a weak La Nina for the winter, resulting in more northern branch systems, "clippers," which will contribute to a better lake-effect snow season compared to last year.
Other factors will be the warm PDO. We see it weakening but staying positive. That could be enough to cut into precipitation at times in the Northwest, but we are not looking for a dry season but not as wet in a typical La Nina winter. The cold may be aimed away from the Northwest coast and more across eastern Rockies, northern and central Plains toward the Midwest and Great Lakes. We have seen a common theme in the analogs with this scenario. The risk here is we have not yet identified the type of La Nina, whether the cooler waters will set up in the central equatorial Pacific or eastern Pacific which could make a difference in precipitation for the northern California and the Northwest. (Central based better shot for rain)
The two questions that I still do not have an answer for just yet about the winter:
1. The modeling is not very cold but does show neutral where we are thinking cold. So, do we ease from current maps that are cold like the analogs and play halfway between the models?
2. It seems like the common theme the past couple of years is a warm start in the East then colder and snowier. Some analogs say yes, like 1984, but others show a colder December and especially January, then easing in February followed by a chilly and unsettled spring.
Below is a set of maps. The first is the analogs that we have chosen, and the outcome that looks a bit too widespread on cold.
The next three maps are based on temperatures, precipitation and highlight page with earlier predictions on where above-normal snowfall could be. This is based off analogs, models and looking at the analogs close up on snowfall for selected cities (Minneapolis, New York City, Chicago and Denver) The overall winter outlook map has three shaded areas of blue.
This shows the best chances for above-normal snowfall for the winter, not just December through February. I did not shade normal or below-normal forecasts.
What kind of summer are we having warm ranking wise? I don't think it is top 15, and August isn't supposed to be hot unless I'm wrong.
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