Spring 2014 (March-May) - Northern Hemisphere (Indianapolis, snowfall, warm, temperatures)

[Cambium]

Anyone north of Baltimore heads up.

The north trend yesterday and last night shouldn't be ignored.

Now we watch and wait for how much is being shown. Temps fully will support snow north of Newark at least. Unless this thing keeps going north which would mean rain for us I think we're getting snow Sunday night.

Conservative NWS NY uses the word significant

"SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMTS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS. POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR FOR A SNOW EVENT

From NWS Boston.

"ARCTIC HIGH PRES SUGGESTS ONLY SNOWFALL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RATIOS ASSUMING THE WARM CONVEYOR LIFT REMAINS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC REGIME...BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT. DRY AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE N WITH HIGH PRES...SO AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AREAS N OF THE MASS PIKE MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMS"

More technical from Boston

THE KEY WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CULMINATE IN A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT COASTAL LOW PRES FOR SUN INTO MON. AS
MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE WAS INITIAL
DISAGREEMENT IN THE FINAL PLACEMENT OF 1030 ARCTIC HIGH
PRES...WHICH HAS BEEN SETTLED SOMEWHAT...SUGGESTING IT CRESTS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS IS THE NORTHERN SOLUTION. GIVEN
THE PHASING OF BOTH ARCTIC AND WRN CONUS ENERGY IS THE KEY TO THIS
LOW PRES INITIALIZATION/TRACK AND MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THE WRN
CONUS ENERGY WILL DOMINATE...DIGGING THE TROF FURTHER W AND
PULLING IN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE

[Cambium]

So for my area Latest NAM model shows a significant snowstorm Sunday-Monday but GFS says dry.

So lets take a look at 2 things...

NAM on left for Philly showing the precip type and how much. .72" (almost 3/4") of snow. At 9:1 ratios = 5-7" of snow for Philly..

GFS on right showing the max temps for the following Saturday afternoon (still 8 days away)

How about we call it a snowy Rollercoaster ride we cloud be on?

[mcip]

saw the NY-NJ storm for Sunday Monday looks like it's not gonna hit northern NJ any more or if it does it will not be very much. I'm ok with this

[Cambium]

To be honest.. I'd rather see snow go north of me this time of year not SOUTH! This event will not be North. The snow is either going to be south of me or over this area. If it misses me to the south AGAIN in March that's just not right. LOL But we all have to share I guess.

12z look at the Canadian, GFS, and NAM for hr72 (Mon morning).

Canadian and GFS keep CT dry! Candian snowier for northern Mid Atlantic. GFS less snowy.

Look what the NAM does... Notice the High pressure.. It's north more which leaves room for the precip to move into this area = snow

[Cambium]

This is crazy... I should be talking about rain and warmth by now.

There's 2 situations unfolding. Time frame for first would be Sunday afternoon ending Monday afternoon

Next one would be Wednesday but we'll have to see about that.

The High pressure which is suppressing Sundays storm will be much more north which means room for a system to hit southern New England.


Must see video as usual by Bernie, he explains it all.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XX8Z-1OGoY

[snj90]

Originally Posted by Cambium

To be honest.. I'd rather see snow go north of me this time of year not SOUTH! This event will not be North. The snow is either going to be south of me or over this area. If it misses me to the south AGAIN in March that's just not right. LOL But we all have to share I guess.

12z look at the Canadian, GFS, and NAM for hr72 (Mon morning).

Canadian and GFS keep CT dry! Candian snowier for northern Mid Atlantic. GFS less snowy.

Look what the NAM does... Notice the High pressure.. It's north more which leaves room for the precip to move into this area = snow

If snow is going to miss me, I'd rather it miss me to the south. I'm envious enough of places north of me that get more snow and don't need to be more so.

I'm liking that all 3 of those seems to show snow for me, though the GFS showing a weak snowstorm isn't too thrilling. I like the Canadian the most. NAM looks like it could produce similar results as the Canadian for my area, but that 32 degree isoline is getting a little too close for comfort, as is the lighter precipitation area.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by snj90

I'm liking that all 3 of those seems to show snow for me, though the GFS showing a weak snowstorm isn't too thrilling. I like the Canadian the most. NAM looks like it could produce similar results as the Canadian for my area, but that 32 degree isoline is getting a little too close for comfort, as is the lighter precipitation area.

Nice summary. Yeah NAM does get closer with the freezing line but you're safe based on that run.

Check out the data from the NAM and GFS for Mt Holly area.

Nutty NAM around 1" qpf.
Goofy GFS around 1/4".

Both have temps that support snow.

[Cambium]

Thought I update you guys on what NWS NY says about this storm coming.

Sure enough they mention the south trend today but they are not believing it yet.

Better data with tonight and tomorrow morning updates. VERY interesting point they make. The High was stronger during that bust storm on 3/3. That means it might not be suppressed like last time so it would come north and get us..

We'll get better data into the models tonight and tomorrow morning.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

FOCUS IS ON THE COMPLEX SCENARIO LEADING TO A POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM SUN NIGHT/MON THAT MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA.

THE 00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW A NORTHERN TREND IN THE TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA FROM SUNY SB SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS...

HOWEVER TODAYS 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS INTERESTINGLY SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS INCONSISTENCY STEMS FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT JUST MOVED ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW US.DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES AND EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA.

ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH AS IT COULD BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER AND THE MARCH 3RD STORM OR BETTER THE NON-STORM IS STILL IN RECENT MEMORY. THE HIGH DURING THAT EVENT WAS ABOUT 10 MB STRONGER THAN IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEFORE THIS ONE.

WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTERINSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUN SNOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS.

AM NOT JUMPING ON THE SUPPRESSED SOLNS YET SINCE THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. NOT QUITE SURE IF WE WOULD BE ABLE TOREACH WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES) IN A OVERRUNNING PATTERN...BUT THE HIGHER QPF VALUES ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IT IS STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Gotta love the downslope effect in the East. Remember I said that's what we need to warm up to seasonable+ temps? This is the 850mb heights and winds.

You have a south push of air from Texas to Ohio Valley at 4500 feet. That in turn is hitting the appalacians and sliding right down into the East.

The 850mb temps(not shown here) are showing very warm pool of air around Missouri (east of the current storm) and that's pushing the warmer air north and east

Always cool to see!

Here's NWS NY mentioning it.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
506 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST WEST OF THE AREA AS OF 08Z. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWED BY DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW
THAT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO 55-60
ACROSS NYC METRO AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND 50-55 TO THE
NORTH...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN A 00Z GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
BLEND. THE 06Z RAP SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH THE LOWER
60S INVOF NYC WITH ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS
TO WHETHER IT WILL GET THIS WARM AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.

And here we go again for tomorrow. Enjoy Spring!

This is what we will have to rely on since I don't foresee a ridge in the East in the near future.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A MODERATE WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP SCOUR OUT CLOUDS SO LOOKING AT A MOSTLY SUNNY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER THE NW ZONES WHERE A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE LAKES WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMALS. AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR -4C

Forecast Highs

[snj90]

Yep, going to be 60 degrees here tomorrow. But I'll be "missing out" on it, as I plan to spend the day hiking in the Poconos, where there's still as much as 6 inches of snow on the ground and where tomorrow's high temperature is only supposed to be 44, but around freezing in the morning with a chance of snow flurries.