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Most of our record high temps in Eastern Oz have been the result of sustained El Nino events (eg Nov 1982, March 1983, March 2002 and recently February 2004). Jan 2013 similarly had record highs, although they were sporadic and not over the whole month.
The worst news though is continued drought conditions for farmers here.
Working in the meat industry, this means more cull cattle, good for intermediate future- along with the weakened Aussie dollar for export, but not long term.
The biggest affects of El Nino the U.S will be felt in California. The state will literally go from the worst drought in history to epic floods and mudslides.
I thought El Nino's have minimal impact on US East Coast summer temperatures, except reduced rainfall due to reduced tropical storms.
This was from Master's blog posted at the start of this thread
Quote:
What does this mean for the U.S. this summer? Well, why it’s still a bit early to be certain, typical conditions over the U.S. during strong El Niño’s favor a ridge over the West and a trough over the East. Therefore, you typically see warmer than average summers over the West Coast, and colder than average temperatures over eastern two thirds of the nation, as shown by a simple surface temperature correlation map with the ENSO 3.4 index:
But not all El Ninos are alike. Strength, and positioning of El Nino's SST's can be critical players to CONUS weather patterns. Especially during the winter months.
For Illinois
A weak El Nino
A strong El Nino
But we aren't even sure El Nino is going to be here by the summer if at all yet....
We haven't had an El Nino in a while, so it'll be a nice change of pace to slip into El Nino status later in the year. ENSO is just one of many factors that affect weather patterns in the United States, and even the ENSO effect depends on what kind of El Nino we'll be dealing with, so as of now the possible effects of El Nino on the American weather pattern for the rest of the year is just one big question mark. Counterexamples to the "typical" El Nino pattern abound in the record books.
There's also the possibility that El Nino will not become established until most of the Summer is over and only exert an influence in Autumn and Winter, and about a third of the model plume (I think that's what it's called) has neutral status, so the possibility exists that there may not be an El Nino at all. However, if I had to guess I'd say there will be a moderate El Nino by late Autumn.
This was from Master's blog posted at the start of this thread
But not all El Ninos are alike. Strength, and positioning of El Nino's SST's can be critical players to CONUS weather patterns. Especially during the winter months.
For Illinois
A weak El Nino
A strong El Nino
But we aren't even sure El Nino is going to be here by the summer if at all yet....
I have all the NOAA monthly summaries for Philly from 1948 to present, and looking at the strongest El Nino years of 1957, 65,72, 82, and 1997 the impact here is moderate at most. It wasn't like every month of the summer was cool with some summer months even above average. The summers look sunny and drier than avearge. 1965 and 1982 seem the coolest and it was 1.8F-1.9F below average for the four warmest months of the year. Some years are pretty warm, like 1957, with 31 days over 90F (which is more than average). The moderate years have virtually no effect that I can tell. Some years hot and some not so much.
I have all the NOAA monthly summaries for Philly from 1948 to present, and looking at the strongest El Nino years of 1957, 65,72, 82, and 1997 the impact here is moderate at most. It wasn't like every month of the summer was cool with some summer months even above average. The summers look sunny and drier than avearge. 1965 and 1982 seem the coolest and it was 1.8F-1.9F below average for the four warmest months of the year. Some years are pretty warm, like 1957, with 31 days over 90F (which is more than average). The moderate years have virtually no effect that I can tell. Some years hot and some not so much.
On phone so limited capabilities. Quickly looking those yrs of 1957, 65, 72, 82, & 97 ElNino was established by June.
I'm curious how were summers of 1986 and 1968 there?
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