El Niño for 2014? (storm, seasons, America, normal)
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Another look. Those warm anomalies are what...400-1000 miles off shore over deeper waters? (green/light blue is near normal so look at the yellows)
Hard to get the Gulf stream cold anyway. Water temps are below normal off the East coast. And guess one thing that needs to happen for winds to shift from southeast? Bermuda High. We'll see.
Also note... it wont go from below normal to above normal right away. It's going to take a lot of energy, sun, wind shift, and temps to get those below normal temps back to above normal. Isn't that like saying they will go from low 40s to low 50s next 4 weeks? (assuming low 50s is above normal)
I wish there was a way to look back and see how often we saw those cold anomalies off the coast like this. Probably not often
I also wonder if the cool down of parts of the Atlantic will lead to a warm AMO shift to cold soon. And the PDO maybe warms into the warm phase which will have effects on the ENSO El Nino factor.
The current temp 20 miles off of DE coast is 40.1F at buoy 44009. That is .9F below the mean for February. Buoy number 44009 is 26 NM southeast of Cape May. The longterm mean (1984-2008) for sst at that location is 41F (5C). At this same date in Feb of 2010 the sst there was 38.8F. Fast forward to June 16th 2010 and the sst there was 71F. By mid July the sst there was 77F. Very nice.
Another buoy further offshore is currently reading 47.5F. That is buoy number 44066 and is 75 NM east of Long Beach, NJ. On this same date in 2010 that buoy was reading sst at 45F. No data on that one for longterm average, and 2009 and 2011 no data. In Feb of 2012 on this date it was reading 68F which seems like it had issues as that would be way above normal I would think. At this date in 2013 it was reading 48.2F.
The cold anomalies are no where near as great as the warm anomalies further offshore. And btw, New Jersey is only 60 miles wide, and looking at that NOAA map there is no way that huge warm anomaly is over 400-1000 miles offshore. More like one hundred miles at most.
One more look just so the excuse of a bad source isn't used. LOL That's the thing with free sites, you don't get the closer look. (costs money to get in close and have more options available)
The 1+ anomalies are about 125-225 miles off the MA coast, not NJ.
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Pacific are ripe for an El Niño event to develop this spring or summer. As detailed in a guest blog post by WSI's Dr. Michael Ventrice on February 21, all that is needed to trigger an El Niño this spring or summer are strong and persistent bursts of westerly winds in the Equatorial Pacific to help push warm water from the Western Pacific Warm Pool eastwards towards South America. Two tropical storms capable of doing just that formed in the Pacific on Friday, boosting the odds that we will see an El Niño event this spring or summer. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Faxai formed Friday morning about 400 miles southeast of Guam. The minimal 40 mph tropical storm is located close to the Equator, at 9°N latitude, which means the the counterclockwise wind circulation around the storm will drive west-to-east winds along the Equator, giving a substantial push to warm waters attempting to slosh eastwards towards South America and start an El Niño event. Faxai is expected to intensify to a Category 1 typhoon by Monday, but is not a threat to any islands. In the South Pacific, Tropical Cyclone Sixteen formed Friday morning near the island of Fiji.
Massive sub-surface warming (>6 degree anoms) in central Pacific. Entire West Pacifc warm pool is shifting east!
Can you post the source for those images? Besides the lack of credit, it's useful for members to able to get more info from the link if interested. Thanks!
Can you post the source for those images? Besides the lack of credit, it's useful for members to able to get more info from the link if interested. Thanks!
And looks a potential El Niño is worth watching.
^^
It's off of a meteorologists twitter feed. Michael Ventrice.
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