El Niño for 2014? (2015, city, most, thunderstorms)
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No two El Niños are exactly alike. Each has its own character. So while western storms and Midwest warming OFTEN accompany El Niños, particularly during cold seasons, some of these events produce very different results. As a result, the evolution of this latest El Niño will have to be monitored.
Snowstorm this Week...Some Heavy Storms....El Nino on the Way!
March 10, 2014; 1:00 PM
Comments
It looks like the El Nino is coming on. The ECWMF monthlies show the El Nino in full swing by May, which has implications on the weather pattern for the summer. Most people think the chilly weather will last through the summer, but I am thinking that it will be a warm summer over much of the country. Winter next year should be a wild one with the El Nino occurring.
When an El Nino forms, the warmest waters are typically in NINO 3.4 and 4 regions.(160 E to 130 W / 10 to 15 degrees North). This leads to enhanced thunderstorm development.
The thunderstorm development leads to heat released into the atmosphere. This additional release of heat in the atmosphere occurs at the base of the troughs over the central Pacific which helps to enhance and sustain a trough around the central Pacific which in turn keeps a ridge over the West coast and Rockies. That means a trough around the Great Lakes down to the Mississippi River Valley is likely.
So cold fronts and volitile pattern is likley while staying on the cool side in the east. I am not seeing a torch pattern in the east. I still think the ridge sets up mostly in central US and shifts back and forth with the west.
Right now the Kelvin wave is 6C+ anomaly which is extremely intense. First lets see if an El Nino actually happens before we can determine if it's going to be a super el nino. Westerlies need to continue to blow throughout the Spring which isn't a guarantee.
Right now some are calling for an 09/10' event, but that could certainly change....
Michael Ventrice believes this could be a monster El Nino bigger than 97/98'. Right now it's looking like it
JB thinks it's going to slow down and be more of a moderate Modoki- El Nino similar to 09/10'
Thanks! Those maps are so neat.
Hope we get some good heat this summer here.
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